India – China – Bhutan: A Sino-Indian military stand-off

Date first published: 11/07/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: PV, war Independent India has fought five wars. Four were with Pakistan, and ended in India’s favour. In contrast, the 1962 Sino-India war, fought in harsh mountainous conditions, was a resounding defeat for Delhi and resulted in the Aksai Chin region coming under Beijing’s control. Land disputes persist along…

Ones to Watch: 17 July 2017

Americas: Opposition to intensify protests ahead of controversial 30 July vote Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; deadly violence; political instability In Venezuela, the opposition announced plans to intensify demonstrations to demand early general elections and to protest against President Nicolas Maduro’s drive to rewrite the constitution. The move followed the 16 July…

Brazil: Temer’s fight for survival

Date first published: 04/07/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; corruption fall-out; strikes and demonstrations On 26 June Michel Temer became the first sitting Brazilian president to be charged with corruption. This might seem to be just another move in the judiciary’s attempt to dismantle the ever-growing web of corruption ensnaring Brazilian politicians, the business elite…

Ones to Watch: 10 July 2017

Americas: Senate to vote on controversial labour reform; Congress to vote on Temer’s trial Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; strikes; corruption fallout In Brazil, the Senate is expected to vote on the controversial government-backed labour reform bill on 11 July. A motion to fast-track the bill, which is part of President Michel…

Saudi Arabia: A king in waiting

Royal reshuffle to have profound consequences Date first published: 27/06/2017 Key sectors: banking; finance; consumer retail; industry; energy Key risks: frustration of process; contract frustration; delayed payments Saudi royals apparently keep very late hours: the most important royal decrees always come in the middle of the night. The announcement on 21 June by the state…