Date first published: 05/10/2023
Key sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; terrorism
Risk development
Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are being vacated by the departing UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) forces. Since clashes erupted, the CMA has managed to capture at least five military bases, including the Bamba, Lere, Dioura and Bourem bases in the northern Gao region. However, on 2 October national security chiefs redeployed a large contingent of FAMa forces – consisting of about 119 vehicles – from Gao region to Kidal region. The move threatens to escalate the conflict and sets the scene for a war between the CMA and FAMa.
Why it matters
The military junta’s primary objective is to regain state control throughout the country. The persistent control of Kidal by rebel forces continues to be a source of frustration for the military junta. Prior to launching any efforts to reclaim Kidal, FAMa are focused on recapturing the Aguelhok and Tessalit bases situated to the north of the rebels’ former stronghold. This came as MINUSMA forces prepare to depart from these areas.
FAMa cannot afford – both in terms of resource and manpower – to enter another conflict as the military grapples with the persistent threat of an Islamist insurgency. A crucial issue for FAMa is their limited resources, leaving them with a difficult choice between enduring the status quo or conducting sporadic dynamic operations to regain control in select areas.
The resurgence of hostilities in northern Mali is poised to place additional strain on an already stretched military, coupled with their contingent of approximately 1,000 Wagner Group mercenaries. This renewed conflict between FAMa and Tuareg separatists carries the risk of creating a security vacuum as troops are redeployed, which is likely to be exploited by Islamist militant groups.
Although the Malian military possesses air power acquired in 2022, consisting of three Turkish-made Bayraktar drones and L39 Albatros aircraft provided by Russia, their actual availability and effectiveness in combat remain uncertain at this point.
Background
During a UN Security Council meeting on 16 June the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdoulaye Diop formally requested the withdrawal of MUNISMA troops from the country. citing a “crisis of confidence” between the ruling military junta and UN officials. However, MUNISMA played a pivotal role in upholding the fragile 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement – the peace deal which ended the Tuareg separatist rebellion.
The ongoing handover process, initiated with the camp at Ber in mid-August, has become a key catalyst in the recent resurgence of hostilities by separatist groups. Amidst a complex landscape of competing armed factions, the CMA argue that the UN-administered sites should be returned to their control.
Risk outlook
The military junta remains steadfast in its attempt to consolidate control of the country’s territory despite objections by the CMA. FAMa lacks the capability and resources to fight on two fronts – namely against the Islamist insurgency and separatist rebels. While the conflict is expected to remain concentrated in the northern regions there is a high likelihood that a renewed conflict will increase political instability and instability within the military. The military continues to suffer high levels of casualties and morale among junior soldiers remains low which drives the risk for further coups in the country.