Date first published: 17/10/2023
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty
Risk development
Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New Left – gained 248 seats in the 460-member lower chamber of parliament – known as Sejm in Poland – having substantially higher chances of forming a government. However, President Andrzej Duda has previously indicated that he would appoint the largest party to form a government. Given PiS’s low chances to do so, such a decision would likely protract the government formation process.
Why it matters
Should the opposition form a government and win a vote of confidence in Sejm, it would bring a major change to the country’s domestic and foreign policies. The highest turnout since at least the fall of communism in 1989 of 74.4 per cent indicated that Poles considered the election the most decisive one in the last three decades. First analyses of the results suggest that the opposition’s success in mobilising young voters in big cities was largely behind the high turnout, with many seeking a change following PiS’s eight years in power.
The potential new government is widely expected to focus on improving ties with the EU, strained by rule of law disputes, Warsaw’s strong anti-migrant position and the recent ban on Ukraine’s grain imports. Domestic changes will likely come at a slower pace, given the discrepancies in programmes of possible coalition partners. However, changes in the judiciary, media or women’s rights would all be on the table.
Background
President Andrzej Duda – who has close ties with PiS – has previously indicated that he would follow the tradition and first appoint the largest party – in this case, PiS – to form a government. Although it has not been confirmed, there are speculations that Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki could again lead the bid as PiS’s prime minister candidate. While his chances of forming a government are low as PiS did not secure a majority in Sejm – gaining 194 seats – Morawiecki has already stated that the party would attempt to negotiate.
Ahead of the election, the far-right Confederation party was seen as PiS’s potential coalition partner, but such a partnership would not be sufficient as Confederation gained only 18 seats in Sejm. Therefore, PiS would have to convince individual members of the opposition blocks to gain a majority. There were suggestions among PiS members to negotiate with the agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL) – a member of the opposition Third Way coalition – given their relatively close programmes. However, PSL’s leader, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, categorically ruled out a coalition with PiS. Other opposition parties have expressed similar views.
Risk outlook
Duda will now have 30 days to convene Sejm and then 14 days to nominate a candidate for prime minister. The nominee will have 14 days to form a government and win a vote of confidence by an absolute majority in Sejm. If they fail, Sejm will take the initiative and appoint a PM candidate who also needs to secure a vote of confidence in Sejm. This indicates that should Duda appoint PiS, it will take at least until December for Poland to have a stable government. However, it appears increasingly likely that it will be a new government, likely led by former European Council president and Poland’s former prime minister Donald Tusk.