Americas: Trump assassination attempt raises fears of increasing political violence in the US
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political violence; electoral violence; political stability
In the US, former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump was shot in the ear in an assassination attempt and one spectator was killed during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot and killed by Secret Service personnel after firing multiple shots from a rooftop less than 150 metres away. The FBI is investigating security failures. President Joe Biden denounced political violence, called for calm and pulled election ads attacking Trump following the attack. Many Trump supporters blamed the Democrats for the attack, citing their portrayal of Trump as a threat to democracy. The country is facing a surge in political violence, with 14 fatal politically-motivated attacks with identifiable partisan motives registered since the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack. 13 of these attacks were committed by right-wing assailants and one by a left-wing attacker. The incident will likely bolster Trump’s campaign.
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Asia Pacific: Chinese Communist Party convenes third plenum as economic growth figures falter
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks
In China, on 15 July Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials began gathering in Beijing for the third plenum, a four-day party conclave that will determine the country’s long-term economic and social objectives. The meeting will discuss “further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernisation” and will likely prominently feature domestic demand and high-tech innovation as President Xi Jinping’s so-called “new productive forces” – key drivers of growth aimed at realising his goal of transforming China into a “high-level socialist market economy” by 2035. Q2 GDP growth decelerated to 4.7 per cent year-on-year, the slowest rate since Q1 2023. The figure will likely bolster the case for more effective fiscal stimulus as the economy continues to be bogged down by a prolonged property crisis, rising local government debt, sluggish domestic demand and mounting trade barriers in light of continued geopolitical tensions with the West.
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Eurasia: Georgia’s President Zourabichvili files lawsuit against “foreign agents” law
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Georgia, on 15 July President Salome Zourabichvili stated that she filed a lawsuit against the controversial “foreign agents” law in the Constitutional Court, claiming the legislation violates a constitutional clause requiring the government to make every effort to join the EU and NATO. This came after on 9 July Brussels halted Tbilisi’s EU accession process and froze EUR30m (US$32.4m) of financial assistance to its Defence Ministry in response to the 14 May passing of the “foreign agents” law. The law allows Tbilisi to label media and civil society groups as “organisations carrying the interests of a foreign power” if they received foreign funding, echoing a 2012 Russian law used to suppress dissent. Brussels has repeatedly criticised the legislation, which sparked weeks of countrywide protests, warning that it jeopardises the country’s path to EU membership. Further retaliatory EU measures cannot be ruled.
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Europe: Civil unrest risks heightened in Serbia amid government’s plan to renew Rio Tinto project
Sectors: all
Key Risks: business and economic risks; civil unrest
In Serbia, on 11 June the Constitutional Court declared the government’s January 2022 ruling to revoke lithium mine licences granted to British-Australian mining company Rio Tinto unconstitutional. According to the court, the government “exceeded the limits of its jurisdiction”. The ruling came amid reports that the government was planning to re-approve the project, which was scrapped following massive protests in December 2021 and January 2022. On 16 June reports emerged that President Alexandar Vucic was planning to greenlight the project, citing new guarantees from Rio Tinto and financial commitments from the EU. The reports sparked protests in Loznica – the closest town to the mine – where on 28 June thousands of people rallied against the project. The ruling indicates that the project is likely to be renewed which will trigger another wave of protests with the potential to turn disruptive.
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MENA: Repeated deadly Israeli strikes in Gaza jeopardise ceasefire talks
Sectors: all
Key risks: war; humanitarian crisis
In Gaza, on 13 July at least 90 Palestinians – mostly women and children – were killed and 300 others were injured in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike in al-Mawasi camp in southern Gaza, a designated safe zone for displaced Palestinians. The airstrike marked one of the deadliest weeks since the start of Israeli military operations in Gaza in October 2023, which have killed nearly 39,000 Palestinians. Concurrently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly reneging on key points of Tel Aviv’s ceasefire proposal to insist on Israel’s right to resume operations in Gaza at its discretion, raising concerns among Israeli officials that Netanyahu is deliberately obstructing a truce. In response, on 15 July Hamas, citing Tel Aviv’s “continued policy of procrastination and obstruction, and the ongoing massacres against unarmed civilians”, announced that it was suspending its participation in US, Egyptian and Qatari-mediated ceasefire talks.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: United Transformation Movement withdraws from Malawi’s ruling coalition
Sectors: all
Key risks: political continuity; political stability
In Malawi, on 12 July a United Transformation Movement (UTM) spokesperson announced the party’s withdrawal from the Tonse Alliance, the ruling parliamentary coalition, in accordance with late vice president Saulos Chilima’s vision for the party. The decision is expected to be endorsed by the party’s executive committee on 19 July. Despite the appointment of new UTM leader Michael Usi as the new vice president, the death of Saulos Chilima has destabilised the Tonse Alliance. The announced withdrawal effectively ends the Tonse Alliance, leaving the remaining members of the Alliance as a minority government. The Tonse Alliance will look to make deals with opposition members in the coming weeks to regain their parliamentary majority. Furthermore, the Alliance and UTM will look to secure further alliances to bolster their chances ahead of the 2025 elections.
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