Americas: Controversy and unrest likely ahead of 28 July presidential elections in Venezuela
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; civil unrest; corruption; sanctions
In Venezuela, on 28 July voters will head to the polls to choose between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition coalition Unitary Platform (UP)’s presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Maduro has embarked on an intensified government-led crackdown on political opposition and dissent ahead of the presidential election. His campaign of repression saw Maria Corina Machado – who overwhelmingly won the October 2023 opposition primary – barred from running, and 25 members of her team arbitrarily arrested. Government interference in the vote will remain likely, and a last minute disqualification of Gonzalez or the UP cannot be ruled out. The risk of election-related demonstrations, with the potential to turn violent, will remain heightened ahead of and following the vote as Maduro is likely to steal the election if he loses as polls predict. With fair elections set to remain elusive, fresh US sanctions cannot be ruled out.
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Asia Pacific: Bangladesh Supreme Court scales back job quota as curfew imposed amid unrest
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political violence; violent clashes
In Bangladesh, on 21 July the Supreme Court scaled back a contentious quota system for relatives of independence fighters in government jobs, ordering on appeal for it to be cut from 30 to 5 per cent while reserving 93 per cent to be allocated on merit. A 5 June High Court ruling to reinstate the quota triggered widespread student protests and blockades which on 16 July descended into violent clashes between protesters and pro-government student organisations and security forces. The unrest has since killed at least 147 people. On 19 July the government imposed a nationwide curfew and declared public holidays on 21-22 July to quell the unrest, adding to prior measures including an internet and communications blackout and the closure of all high schools and universities. While the Supreme Court ruling is expected to mitigate further unrest, sporadic protests and clashes cannot be ruled out.
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Eurasia: Russian troops’ build-up near Ukraine’s Hlyboke raise concerns over new offensive
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war
In Ukraine, on 21 July local officials reported that Russia had transferred a large number of troops to staging grounds behind the frontline town of Hlyboke and appeared to be planning a new offensive in the area. On 10 May Russian forces launched a new cross-border assault from Belgorod Oblast into Kharkiv Oblast, between the Travianske Reservoir immediately to the west and the town of Vovcahansk nearly 20 km to the east. However, they have failed to advance more than 5 km south of the border since then. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned of a new offensive in the area or even in Sumy Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast’s west, which was occupied between February and April 2022. Heavy fighting in the area is set to continue.
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Europe: France to host Olympic Games amid heightened threat of extremist attacks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: extremist attacks;
In France, from 26 July to 11 August Paris will host the Olympic Games amid a heightened threat of extremist attacks. On 17 July a far-right sympathiser was arrested in Alsace on suspicion of plotting to carry out extremist attacks during the Games. Separately, on 15 July a soldier was injured in a stabbing attack by an assailant in Paris’ Gare de l’Est train station. The soldier was deployed with Operation Sentinelle, a unit of 3,000 troops patrolling public spaces that was reinforced after Paris activated its highest national terror alert level in October 2023 following the Arras school stabbing. On 21 July Paris also announced it would provide 24-hour protection to Israeli athletes during the Games amid heightened tensions over the Israel-Gaza war. Islamic State (IS) has intensified calls for attacks at European sports events. The risk of extremist attacks remains high.
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MENA: Huthi attack on Tel Aviv, IDF response in Yemen reignite fear of regional escalation
Sectors: all
Key risks: war; regional escalation
In Israel, on 19 July a Huthi drone struck a residential building in Tel Aviv, killing an Israeli civilian and injuring at least 10 others, marking the first casualties from a Huthi attack in the country. In response, on 20 July Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes on Yemen, targeting oil facilities in the Huthi-controlled al-Hudaida port in the country’s western coast. Tel Aviv claimed that the port had been used by the Huthis to receive weapons from Iran. The Huthi leadership vowed to respond to the strike and that attacks would continue “until the end of Israeli genocide on Gaza”, declaring that Tel Aviv is now an ”unsafe area” and a primary target. As the Huthis continue to pledge their support for the Palestinians in Gaza, further attacks on Israeli territory are likely, despite the inevitability of retaliatory Israeli strikes.
Click here to access Israel‘s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: DRC’s South Kivu Governor suspends all mining activities in the province
Sectors: mining
Key risks: economic; business; frustration of processes
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, on 19 July the Governer of South Kivu Province, Jean-Jacques Purusi, announced the suspension of all mining activities to combat mineral exploitation, giving companies 72 hours to vacate their mining operations. This is the second time that mining operations were suspended in South Kivu province after on 23 August 2021 former governor Theo Kasi suspended six Chinese mining operations to “restore order” and protect the environment. Purusi hoped to boost mining revenues and improve mineral traceability as well as tackle any disorder brought on by mining operators. A meeting between authorities and mining companies is scheduled for 30 July to discuss sector regulation. Mining is expected to resume after the meeting. However, widespread artisanal mining and increasing insecurity from armed groups in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces will hinder any mining sector regulations.
Click here to access the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Global Intake country profile.
