Americas: President Arce announces referenda to address Bolivia’s economic and political crises
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; economic risks
In Bolivia, on 6 August leftist President Luis Arce announced national referenda on removing fuel subsidies and on the constitutionality of presidential re-elections, in a move to address the country’s ongoing economic and political crises. The removal of fuel subsidies could trigger severe price shocks and further protests, which have seen citizens block roads leading to key cities in recent months. The referendum on presidential re-elections aims to resolve a contentious dispute between Arce and former president Evo Morales, who plans to run in the 2025 elections despite constitutional limitations. Arce did not specify a date for the votes. On 7 August Arce also called for a clear definition of the objectives of the armed forces and a new legal framework to “prevent moments of crisis from happening again,” referring to the failed 26 June coup attempt. Economic, political stability and civil unrest risks will remain heightened.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin to face potential dismissal in upcoming ruling
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; policy continuity; economic risks
In Thailand, on 14 August the Constitutional Court will rule on a case which could see Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin dismissed from office after a group of former military-appointed senators accused him of violating ethics rules by appointing a minister with a criminal conviction. Srettha has suggested a cabinet reshuffle if he survives the ruling, while his Pheu Thai Party (PTP) will need to nominate a new prime ministerial candidate in the event of his dismissal – likely beginning a complex and uncertain process of political jockeying. The ruling will come just days after the Court dissolved the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) over its campaign to reform the country’s strict lese-majeste laws on 7 August. While MFP’s dissolution has not sparked protests by pro-democracy activists and party supporters, the upcoming ruling will compound political instability, particularly if Srettha is removed from office.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Border clashes continue amid Kyiv’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Russia, on 11 August local officials claimed that 13 civilians were injured after a missile struck an apartment building in Kursk, Kursk Oblast. This came as Ukrainian forces continued their attacks into Kursk Oblast and on 10 August minor incursions into Russia’s neighbouring Belgorod Oblast were reported as well. On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky claimed responsibility for the incursions – which began on 6 August – for the first time. Clashes continued around Sudzha, which includes the Sudzha gas terminal – the final Russian transit point that ships gas via a pipeline through Ukraine and on to Hungary. On 12 August Moscow reported that over 133,000 civilians had been evacuated due to the incursions. Fighting in the region is likely to continue for at least the next few days. It remains uncertain whether Kyiv seeks to temporarily occupy territory in the area.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profiles.
Europe: Civil unrest risks heightened in Serbia over Rio Tinto’s planned lithium mine
Sectors: all; transport; mining
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; business and economic risks
In Serbia, on 10 August thousands of people gathered in the capital Belgrade to protest the planned lithium mine near Loznia in Jadar valley. The protest was the biggest one in a series of demonstrations against the mine which have been taking place across the country over the past two weeks. At least 14 people were detained in Belgrade on 10 August as police dispersed protesters who had camped overnight at Prokop and Novi Beograd railway stations, causing disruptions to rail services. Demonstrators have been protesting the 16 July reinstatement of Rio Tinto’s licence to construct the US$2.4bln mine after the licence was revoked following a series of similar protests in January 2022. On 11 August President Alexandar Vucic claimed the protests were part of a hybrid war aimed to oust him. Protests are likely to continue and could intensify in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Deadly IDF airstrikes in Gaza continue amid detainee abuse scandal
Sectors: all
Key risks: war; human rights violations
In Gaza, on 10 August at least 100 Palestinian civilians were killed in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike on the Tabin school – housing around 2,400 displaced Palestinians – in Gaza City, where they were performing morning prayers. In response to the strike, Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese accused Israel of carrying out a “genocide” in Gaza. Concurrently, on 9 August footage emerged of the gang rape of a Palestinian detainee by 10 prison guards at the Israeli Sde Teiman detention facility. The incident, however, sparked a broad campaign of support for the guards in Israel, led by religious-nationalist political factions, in a bid to prevent the prosecution of the offending guards. Nevertheless, IDF airstrikes in Gaza are expected to continue while the issue of abuse of Palestinian detainees is unlikely to be meaningfully addressed by Tel Aviv.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The RSF intensifies attack on the SAF as peace talks dawn in Sudan
Sectors: all
Key risks: human rights violations, internal conflict, political stability
In Sudan, on 11 August 28 civilians were killed after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched new attacks on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) positions in El-Fasher, North Darfur state. Additionally, clashes between the RSF and the SAF in Omdurman city and El-Jazirah state were reported. Tensions between the RSF and SAF have escalated throughout July and August, exacerbated by constant breakdowns in peace talks. A 31 July drone attack on a military base where the head of the SAF, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was present, prompted him to state that he would not negotiate with the RSF. Despite that, the SAF-controlled government and the RSF set initial preconditions for attending the US-mediated peace talks set for 15 August. Nevertheless, the SAF-supported government eventually pulled out of negotiations on 12 August. Future attempts for peace talks are likely in the coming months as the humanitarian crisis worsens.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake country profile.
