Americas: Thousands of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters protest X ban in Brazil
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption
In Brazil, on 7 September thousands of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters protested the government’s 30 August suspension of Elon Musk’s X social media network – which they denounced as proof of their political persecution. The suspension followed an order by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes after Musk missed the 29 August deadline for naming a legal representative in the country. Moraes launched an investigation into Musk in April over far-right dissemination of fake news and possible obstruction, incitement and criminal organisation. Moraes has spearheaded efforts against far-right misinformation after Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed Brazil’s top offices in January 2023 following his electoral defeat. The protests attest to Bolsonaro’s ability to rally supporters ahead of the October municipal elections, despite being banned from running for office until 2030. The risk of further far-right protests will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Airstrikes intensify as Myanmar military government pushes back against resistance
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil war; violent clashes
In Myanmar, on 6 September 11 civilians were killed and 11 others were injured in a military airstrike in Namkham, northern Shan state. Namkham, located some 5 km from the Chinese border, has been under Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) control since December 2023. The incident marked the latest airstrike since military leader General Min Aung Hlaing vowed on 3 September to retake towns under resistance control amid a renewed counter-offensive against TNLA and its allies, which were designated as “terrorist” groups on 2 September. In the past week alone, military airstrikes elsewhere in Shan, Chin and Kayah states and in Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay regions have killed at least 40 people. Escalating violence along the Chinese border will likely prompt protests from Beijing, who previously brokered ceasefires in northern Shan due to concerns over conflict spillover. Nonetheless, indiscriminate airstrikes in resistance-held territories will likely persist.
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Eurasia: Moscow claims another town in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast amid creeping gains
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 8 September Russian forces claimed to have captured Novohrodivka, a small town 20 km from Pokrovsk – which lies along the crucial Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka Highway in central Donetsk Oblast. The claims have not been independently confirmed, but Kyiv has suffered setbacks for weeks on the fronts outside Chasiv Yar in the oblast’s far north and around Pokrovsk. Over half of Pokrovsk’s 60,000 residents are estimated to have fled in the last two weeks. Ukrainian forces appear increasingly likely to withdraw from the town’s southern outskirts to fight a defensive action in the city itself over the coming days. There are concerns that Russia is launching new offensives around Mariinka and Vuhledar to the west and north-west of Donetsk, respectively, which in conjunction with Ukrainian withdrawals in Pokrovsk could lead to substantial gains for Russian forces and weaken Ukrainian defensive lines to the west in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
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Europe: Border crossings between Serbia and Kosovo reopened amid risk of further blockades
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; road blockades
In Kosovo, on 7 September Interior Minister Xhelal Svecla announced that all border crossings with Serbia closed on 6 September had been reopened. The border closure came after ethnic Serbs from northern Kosovo and their supporters in Serbia blockaded the Serbian side of the border to prevent traffic from entering Serbia. Their blockades came in response to the 30 August closure of five Serbian-run institutions in northern Kosovo. Pristina accused Belgrade of being involved in the blockade, with Svecla claiming that Serbia was escalating a “special war against Kosovo,” using propaganda, subversive operations and diplomatic pressure. Pristina’s closure of Serbian-run institutions was criticised by Pristina’s Western partners, who asserted that it “undermined Kosovo’s reputation as a reliable international partner”. Serbian associations pledged to continue disruptive protests if their demands to re-open the institutions are not met by 1 October. Bilateral tensions will remain high.
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MENA: Washington reportedly reaches agreement on US-led IC forces’ withdrawal in Iraq
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional escalation
In Iraq, on 6 September Baghdad and Washington reportedly reached a preliminary agreement on the withdrawal of US-led International Coalition (IC) forces from the country after negotiations began in January. The agreement would see the complete withdrawal of US-led IC forces from ‘Ayn al-Assad Air Base (AAAB) in Anbar province and a significant reduction of IC forces in Baghdad by September 2025, culminating in the withdrawal of hundreds of troops. The remaining IC forces would depart by end-2026, particularly those in Erbil province. The agreement awaits approval, with a final announcement expected within the month. While the announcement could have a positive impact on reducing attacks by Iran-backed Shi’ah militias – who have conducted hundreds of attacks against US forces since October 2023 and repeatedly called for the withdrawal of US forces – further attacks cannot be ruled out.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Warring parties reject calls from the UN for an intervention force in Sudan
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; military intervention; sanctions
In Sudan, on 8 September 21 civilians were killed and 70 others were injured after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shelled a market in Sennar city, Sennar state. Fighting between the RSF and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in Sennar has intensified since the capture of its state capital, Singa city, on 29 June. The RSF claimed that the shelling was a response to SAF airstrikes on RSF and civilian positions in the state. On 6 September the UN called for an international peacekeeping force after finding numerous human rights violations committed by both forces. Both the RSF and SAF have rejected the proposal, claiming that the UN is a political body and, therefore, cannot be impartial. Although further attempts at intervention are likely by the UN and other international organisations, human rights violations will persist amid the worsening conflict.
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