Americas: France deploys anti-riot police to contain violent protests in Martinique
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; looting
In Martinique, on 22 September France deployed special anti-riot police to the overseas island territory in a move unprecedented for 65 years, following violent protests in the capital Fort-de-France arrondissement over the high cost of living in recent weeks since early September. Despite a government ban on demonstrations effective from 20-23 September and a curfew in several municipalities, protests have persisted. On 17 September at least six police officers and one civilian were injured by gunfire during violent protests in Fort-de-France as demonstrators burned cars and looted several stores. Police fired tear gas to repel demonstrators. The deployment of elite police, previously banned for using excessive force in 1959, has sparked controversy, with local leaders arguing it escalates tensions rather than resolving them. Further protests with the potential to turn violent should be expected in the coming days.
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Asia Pacific: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party to hold leadership vote on 27 September
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; regulatory changes
In Japan, on 27 September members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect their new leadership. Leading candidates for the role of prime minister include career politician Shigeru Ishiba, heir to a political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, conservative candidate Sanae Takaichi and other candidates who are polling with lower scores. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his intention to step down on 14 August following a series of scandals that placed mounting pressure on his administration. Kishida stated that it was necessary to “present the LDP as a changed party”. While political violence and other major security risks are not expected to heighten over the vote, given that the LDP will remain in power, the outcome of the leadership contest will shape Japanese politics for the foreseeable future.
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Eurasia: Ukraine’s Zelensky to propose “victory plan” to US President Biden, presidential candidates
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
In the United States (US), on 26 September Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to discuss his “victory plan”. Zelensky – who arrived in the US on 23 September – is also scheduled to meet Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, although the date for the meeting has not been officially announced. There have been no public details about the plan, although it is likely to include demands that Washington allows Ukraine to use US-supply long-range missiles against targets in Russia. Zelensky also suggested that he would be open to inviting Russian representatives to the next peace summit scheduled for November. However, Moscow rejected the idea. While it remains uncertain if Zelensky’s visit will result in the decision to allow the use of long-range weapons against Russia, it will further strengthen US support for the country.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Far-right FPO projected to win in Austria’s 29 September parliamentary elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability
In Austria, on 29 September citizens will vote in parliamentary elections. The far-right Freedom Party (FPO) is projected to win the vote, polling between 27-29 per cent. The ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPO) are polling in second and third place, respectively. Economic concerns over high inflation and stagnant growth – as well as migration – have dominated public debates ahead of the vote. On 7 August authorities allegedly thwarted a planned Islamist attack on Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna, with the main suspects being teenagers born to immigrant parents. With migration high on the agenda, the FPO has championed “remigration” – returning migrants to their countries of origin, particularly if they commit a crime – and restricting asylum rules. FPO would struggle to find a coalition partner if it wins, and OVP is expected to emerge as the kingmaker.
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MENA: Lebanese Hizbullah response likely following Israel’s blasts and airstrikes
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war
In Lebanon, on 17 and 18 September at least 37 people were killed and around 3,000 others were injured as wireless pagers and handheld radios used by Hizbullah militants exploded in the Beirut suburbs, eastern Bekaa Valley and the southern regions. Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is suspected to be behind the blasts. On 20 September at least 45 people, including top Hizbullah commanders, were killed and 60 others were injured in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike in the densely-populated Dahiya district, southern Beirut. In retaliation, on 22 September Hizbullah launched nearly 100 rockets at the Ramat David Airbase, marking the group’s most extensive attack into Israel. The attack caused minor damage and no casualties. The situation along the border remains especially tense, with further escalations increasingly likely. A harsh response from Hizbullah cannot be ruled out.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Upcoming protests in Dar-es-Salaam a litmus test for Tanzanian democracy
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; police clashes
In Tanzania, on 22 September opposition party chairman Freeman Mbowe confirmed that he would be holding demonstrations in Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam region, on 23 September. On 11 September he announced initial plans to protest on the day despite police warnings. Mbowe stated the demonstrations are a memorial for killed and missing party members, which was brought on by the 8 September killing of national secretariat Ali Mohamed Kibao. The police in Dar-es-Salaam have issued repeated warnings against protests and have arrested Mbowe, Chadema vice president Tundu Lissu and 12 other people for defying a protest ban as well as three journalists covering the protests. With increasing concerns over perceived government suppression, the protests will set the mood for local elections in December. Police suppression and mass arrests are likely in the coming days.
Click here to access Tanzania’s Global Intake country profile.
