Americas: Uruguay gears for general elections on 27 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political continuity; traffic disruption
In Uruguay, on 27 October voters will head to the polls to elect the successor to President Luis Lacalle Pou and a new parliament and also vote on two plebiscites – to potentially reform the country’s pension regime and allow for police nighttime raids. With preferences similar to those of the last election, voters remain divided between Pou’s centre-right Partido National party and the centre-left bloc led by the Frente Amplio party, headed by a former teacher Yamandu Orsi. The ruling coalition will have four candidates representing each member party – with Pou’s former chief of staff Alvaro Delgado and criminal lawyer Andres Ojeda leading. Given the preceding three elections, the vote will likely lead to a runoff election in November. Given the country’s robust economic and political system, the vote is unlikely to arouse unrest with only minor traffic disruption expected.
Click here to access Uruguay’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Incoming president Subianto nominates Indonesia’s largest cabinet in 60 years
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political impasse; governability
In Indonesia, on 20 October former defence minister Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration led to the nomination of the country’s largest cabinet in 60 years. While Subianto has promised continuity in tackling corruption and limiting key raw materials exports to protect domestic industries, the 109-member cabinet from seven political parties has raised questions about the expansion of bureaucracy in governance. While Subianto stated that such a large cabinet is necessary to represent the diversity of culture and political interests, speculation emerged over whether the inclusion of some of former president Joko Widodo’s ministers serves as a reward for tacit support for Subianto during the February election. New policies include an ambitious spending program to hike civil servant salaries and provide free meals to 83 million children. While policy continuity is highly likely, the cabinet’s size and political diversity may pose increased difficulty to the implementation of new policies.
Click here to access Indonesia’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Georgia to hold crucial parliamentary elections on 26 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability
In Georgia, on 26 October voters will head to the polls to elect the country’s new parliament. The vote will come amid democratic backsliding under the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) government. While GD will likely emerge victorious in the election, pro-Western opposition blocs appear to have a chance to collectively win the most votes. Should this be the case, they have pledged – in a document drafted by President Salome Zourabichvili in May – to form a technocratic government that would rule the country for two years, preparing it for a free and fair election and “restoring the pro-European path.” However, it is widely expected that GD will manipulate the election to secure victory. Should this happen on a large scale, it will likely trigger protests, which could turn violent as precedented during the ‘foreign agent law’ protests in May.
Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Bulgaria heads for seventh snap election since 2021 amid high voter apathy
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In Bulgaria, on 27 October citizens will vote in snap parliamentary elections – the country’s seventh since 2021, when the then-ruling centre-right GERB party lost seats following nationwide anti-government protests in 2020. On 26 August President Rumen Radev approved a caretaker government led by Prime Minister Dmitar Glavchev and scheduled the latest elections after politicians failed to form a government three times following the 8 June snap elections. The repeatedly unsuccessful coalition talks are indicative of a lasting political stalemate, hindering the country’s economic reforms. Amid growing political apathy and voter fatigue, the elections are unlikely to significantly alter the parliament’s make-up. However, pre-election polls showed growing support for the far-right pro-Russian Revival party – which stood at 15.6 per cent and could come in second place – while GERB led the polls with 24.8 per cent. Political instability will remain high amid parties’ unwillingness to cooperate.
Click here to access Bulgaria’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Hamas to select new commander after Yahya Sinwar killed in Gaza
Sectors: all; defence
Key risks: retaliation; regional escalation
In Gaza, on 16 October Hamas’s political leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in Tal As Sultan, Rafah. This marked the second high-level killing after the previous Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on 31 July. Sinwar, whose location was unknown in the run-up to his assassination, played a crucial role in orchestrating the 7 October 2023 attacks and assumed control of Hamas in August. The organisation is likely to choose its next leader in the upcoming days with different names circulating. A strong candidate is Sinwar’s deputy Khalil al-Hayya who is currently based in Qatar leading the Hamas delegation in ceasefire talks with Israel. Though weakened considerably, Hamas’ demands are unlikely to change with Sinwar’s death. Retaliatory attacks by Hamas and its allies are expected and a cessation of violence is unlikely.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Electoral disputes intensify in Mozambique as two opposition figures killed
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability, civil unrest
In Mozambique, on 19 October Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos) official Paulo Gaumbe and lawyer Elvino Dias were shot and killed in Maputo. Dias and Gaumbe had supported presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane’s campaign working with Podemos and planned to submit Podemos’ appeal against the 9 October presidential election results. Human rights organisations claimed the shooting was an assassination, while witnesses alleged that the police blocked ambulance access. Tensions have increased significantly as opposition groups organised protests against the election’s credibility and a nationwide strike on 21 October. Police reportedly cracked down on protesters, prompting Modlane to call on the crowd to disperse. Unconfirmed reports also emerged that a man in plain clothes shot at the crowd before entering a police officer’s car. Challenges to the election are likely to continue as Western observers and presidential candidates question the legitimacy of election results.
Click here to access Mozambique’s Global Intake profile.
