Americas: Continuing blockades likely in Bolivia amid Morales assassination attempt
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruptions; civil unrest
In Bolivia, on 27 October former president Evo Morales accused President Luis Arce’s government of an attempted assassination, alleging that his vehicle was shot at in an ambush by two vehicles near El Alto, La Paz department. Arce rejected the allegations and accused Morales of attempting to destabilise the country amid an ongoing power struggle between the two former allies – both vying for the 2025 presidential nomination – that has widened the ruling MAS party rift and divided their respective supporters. The alleged assassination attempt came amid ongoing anti-government road blockades by Morales’s supporters – which have caused US$540m in losses since 14 October – in response to his potential arrest on human trafficking and abuse allegations, denounced as “political persecution”. Continuing road blockades with significant traffic disruptions are expected. The risk of civil unrest, with the potential to turn violent, will remain heightened.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Japan’s ruling LDP-led coalition loses parliamentary majority
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; regulatory changes; political stability
In Japan, on 27 October the Liberal Democratic Party (LPD)-led coalition lost its majority in the parliamentary elections, securing only 215 of the required 233 seats. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for 65 of the past 69 years, now faces political instability not seen in several decades. The LDP’s poor performance in the election is largely due to negative perceptions of the party following a series of corruption scandals involving the syphoning of money from campaign fundraising events. Shigeru Ishiba – who became prime minister on 27 September – now has 30 days to form a coalition government in order to secure his mandate. Policy shifts and regulatory changes as a result of concessions to smaller parties are highly likely over the coming weeks.
Click here to access Japan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Georgian Dream wins general elections; opposition disputes result, calls for protests
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; violent protests
In Georgia, on 27 October preliminary results showed the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party won the 26 October general elections with 54 per cent of support, amid reports of widespread irregularities by election observers – including vote buying and intimidation. Opposition parties secured a combined 38 per cent, with the Coalition for Changes receiving 11 per cent and the United National Movement 10 per cent. Opposition leaders and President Salome Zourabichvili rejected the results and called for protests on 28 October. Western officials condemned reports of election irregularities and called for an independent investigation, further raising tensions with GD after months of deteriorating relations between the two sides over the country’s democratic backsliding. Tensions will remain extremely high following the election results amid high political polarisation. Protests – with the risk of turning violent – will likely continue in the coming days.
Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Moldovans to vote in presidential runoff on 3 November
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In Moldova, on 3 November citizens will vote in the second round of the presidential election, choosing between pro-Western President Maia Sandu and her opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo, who favours a more neutral stance towards Moscow. Stoianoglo performed significantly better than expected in the first round, securing 26 per cent, while Sandu received 42.3 per of the votes. The second round is expected to be a tight race, with both candidates attempting to secure the votes of unsuccessful first-round candidates – particularly Renato Usatii, who came third with 13.8 per cent. On 28 October Usatii announced he would remain neutral. Following the first round, Sandu accused Russia and pro-Russian forces of election meddling, claiming that they attempted to buy off up to 300,000 votes. Further such accusations are likely ahead of the second round.
Click here to access Moldova’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Four soldiers killed in IDF retaliatory airstrikes on military targets in Iran
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional de-escalation; war-on-land
In Iran, on 26 October four soldiers were killed in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) precision airstrikes against military offensive and defensive targets – including air defence systems, drone and ballistic missile factories and launch sites – in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces. Only minor damage was reported. The strikes were in response to the Iranian missile attack in central and southern Israel on 1 October, which itself was a retaliation for the killing of Hamas and Hizbullah leaders in IDF operations. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran would respond “appropriately” while Tel Aviv cautioned that Tehran would “pay a heavy price” if it retaliated, with both US and UK urging Tehran to refrain from escalating the conflict further. By downplaying the scale of the attack, Tehran is likely to use this as an opportunity to follow Tel Aviv in de-escalation.
Click here to access Iran’s and here to access Israel’s Global Intake profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Botswana to hold general election on 30 October
Sectors: all
Key risks: political continuity; social unrest
In Botswana, on 30 October, citizens will vote in the country’s 12th general election. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is expected to win as divisions amongst opposition parties have prevented them from forming a strong enough force to challenge incumbent President Mokgweetsi Maisisi’s re-election bid. Since their falling out, Maisisi’s predecessor Ian Khama has supported the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), a breakaway faction of BDP’s closest competitor Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). Opposition parties aim to appeal to the unemployed and increasingly apathetic youth, while BDP policy focused on localising production across a range of industries is yet to yield meaningful results. Irregularities by the electoral commission surrounding early voting will add credence to criticism from opposition parties prior to and during vote tallying. The expectation of a BDP victory and electoral tampering will heighten civil unrest risks.
Click here to access Botswana’s Global Intake profile.
