Americas: Uruguay gears up for run-off presidential election on 24 November
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy continuity; traffic disruption
In Uruguay, on 24 November voters will head to the polls to elect President Luis Lacalle Pou’s successor in a run-off vote between Pou’s ruling centre-right coalition led by the Partido Nacional (PN) and the opposition centre-left Frente Amplio coalition, headed by presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi. On 27 October PN’s candidate Alvaro Delgado secured 26.8 per cent of the vote compared to Orsi’s 43.9 per cent in the first round of unified presidential and parliamentary elections. The Colorado Party’s Andres Ojeda came in third place with 16 per cent and has pledged to back Delgado against Orsi. While the race is expected to be close, the stakes are low given the leading candidates Orsi’s and Delgado’s broad consensus on continuing Pou’s business-friendly policies and crime-tackling efforts. The vote is highly unlikely to incite unrest, with only minor traffic disruptions expected.
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Asia Pacific: 45 Hong Kong democracy activists brace for sentencing
Sectors: all
Key Risks: governance; arbitrary arrests
In Hong Kong, on 19 November 45 pro-democracy activists will be sentenced to prison on charges of conspiracy to commit subversion in a major national security trial that critics have denounced as politically motivated. This followed the demands for increased democratic reforms during the civil unrest in June 2019, as well as participating in an unofficial primary election in July 2020 to designate an opposition candidate to the city’s Chief Executive, who is formally appointed by Beijing. Three government-approved judges ruled that the unofficial primary would have undermined the government’s authority and triggered a constitutional crisis. The activists were arrested in January 2021 and their sentences are expected to vary in length from several years to life imprisonment. As Beijing tightens its political grip on the city, further arrests of individuals labelled as “seditious” are highly likely.
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Eurasia: US President Biden authorises long-range Ukrainian strikes into Russia with US arms
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; conflict escalation, sabotage attacks
In the United States (US), on 17 November US President Joe Biden reportedly authorised Ukraine to use US-supplied ATACMS missiles – which have a maximum range of 300 km – to strike targets inside Russia. Unnamed US officials stated the move aimed to counter Moscow’s planned new offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast to retake territory Kyiv seized there in August. Ukraine’s Western-donated F-16 fighter jets will not operate in Russian territory due to Moscow’s air defence advantage. The approval came after on 23 October Washington confirmed that thousands of North Korean troops were sent to Russia to support Moscow’s offensive in Kursk Oblast – which Western officials warned was a major escalation of the war. US President-elect Donald Trump may reverse the approval in January. Moscow previously warned it would consider the approval a major escalation and is likely to intensify sabotage operations across Europe.
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Europe: Romania to hold presidential election’s first round on 24 November
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty
In Romania, on 24 November citizens will vote in the first round of presidential elections. A 14 November pre-election poll showed left-wing Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party ahead with 25.3 per cent of the vote, followed by the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party, George Simion, in second place with 19.1 per cent. The two candidates will likely face each other in the presidential election’s run-off on 8 December. As the president’s powers include oversight of foreign policy, the vote will have a major impact on Bucharest’s commitment to support Ukraine. Ciolacu is a staunch supporter of military aid for Kyiv in its fight against Russia’s invasion, while Simion has opposed military aid. The vote’s winner will also nominate the next prime minister after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 1 December.
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MENA: US Special Envoy to visit Lebanon for deliberations on new ceasefire proposal
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; regional escalation; ceasefire negotiations
In Lebanon, on 19 November United States special envoy Amos Hochstein is due to visit Beirut to discuss a draft proposal for a 60-day cessation of hostilities. The draft was relayed through Ambassador Lisa Johnson on 14 November and well-received by Tehran – Hezbollah’s primary sponsor – in a meeting between Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Iranian top advisor Ali Larijani on 15 November. The proposal, based on United Nations Resolution 1701, reportedly elicited “positive indications” from Hezbollah, though the right to strike granted to Israel as an enforcement mechanism remains a bone of contention. The proposal had been jointly drafted with Israel after the annulment of truce talks on 12 November. The Biden Administration seeks to secure a ceasefire before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on 20 January 2025. The feasibility of a ceasefire remains unclear amid the continuing Israeli offensive.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Protest ban raises risk of violent crackdowns in Mozambique
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; internal conflict
In Mozambique, on 15 November the government announced a ban on demonstrations in the country. Citing their disruption to the national economy and threat to national security, Interior Minister Pascoal Ronda stated that any further protests would be classified as “acts of subversion and terrorism”. This follows the end of the fourth round of demonstrations between 13 and 15 November against the 9 October general election results. Opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane has repeatedly declared ‘national strikes’ against the government, claiming widespread voter fraud and manipulation in the elections. Since 19 October protesters have been met with excessive force by security forces, with roughly 59 civilians killed and several hundred others injured over the last month. Following the ban, the risk of further crackdowns on protesters remains high as Mondlane is likely to call for another round of protests in the coming weeks.
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