Americas: Thousands protest President Petro’s reforms in major cities across Colombia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest
In Colombia, on 23 November thousands demonstrated in Cali, Valle del Cauca province; Medellin, Antioquia province; and the capital Bogota to protest President Gustavo Petro’s policies – including pension, health and labour reforms – as well as alleged government corruption. Petro denied the corruption allegations and accused opposition-led protesters – including the Democratic Center party – of trying to destabilise the country, labelling the protests a “coup” attempt in a post on X. With Petro’s administration amid an ongoing political crisis since June 2023, a lower house committee delayed the labour reform in June 2023 and the Senate rejected Petro’s proposed health reform on 3 April, while lawmakers passed the pension reform on 14 June. As Petro faces ongoing congressional challenges to his reform agenda, the risk of further opposition-led anti-government protests will remain heightened.
Click here to access Colombia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippines’ National Security Council investigates assassination threats
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political violence; targeted attacks; partisan attacks
In the Philippines, on 23 November the National Security Council (NSC) announced that it would investigate threats from the now-estranged Vice President Sara Duterte, who announced in an online press briefing that she preemptively hired an assassin on 23 November to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., as well as his wife and Speaker of the House, if she herself is killed. Although Duterte did not cite any specific threat against her, security protocols have increased in response to her announcement. The feud between Marcos and Duterte emerged in January 2024 following contradicting outlooks on key issues such as foreign and drug policies and has remained a critical challenge for the public perception of Marcos Jr.’s administration. While an assassination attempt is highly unlikely, the Duterte family’s history of extrajudicial killings in the country’s drug war indicates that it cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile
Eurasia: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to boost cooperation in green energy
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: regional integration; energy exports; energy transition
In Azerbaijan, on 18 November the leaders of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a strategic partnership on green energy integration in the Caspian Sea on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) hosted by Baku. The three sides will build a high-voltage power cable on the seabed of the Caspian Sea – with a feasibility study nearly completed – to export renewable energy to European markets. Uzbekistan would likely be the primary electricity exporter due to its ambitious plans to expand renewable energy generation, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan facilitating the power exports. The cable would connect to a Black Sea underwater cable agreed by Georgia, Hungary, Romania and Azerbaijan in July 2023. The move will strengthen Astana, Tashkent and Baku’s role as alternative suppliers of energy to replace Russian energy exports to the EU.
Click here to access Azerbaijan’s and here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake profiles.
Europe: Romania to hold parliamentary elections on 1 December
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Romania, on 1 December voters will head to the polls to elect the country’s next parliament. Opinion polls indicate that the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu will win the vote with approximately 30 per cent. The government coalition’s National Liberal Party (PNL) is projected to receive approximately 13 per cent, while the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) is polling at around 20 per cent. The PLN has stated that it would not form a government with the PSD but should polls be correct, it would be difficult to form a government without the PLN. However, the 24 November presidential election showed the high potential for election outcomes to not reflect polls, with pre-election polls projecting Marcel Ciolacu winning the first round of the vote. He was eventually overtaken by far-right populist Calin Georgescu and centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi.
Click here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Syria increasingly drawn into regional conflict as Israel strikes Iran-backed groups
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war-on-land
In Syria, on 20 November at least 105 people were killed and 15 injured in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes in Palmyra, Homs province. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported two strikes on “a weapons depot near the industrial area” of Palmyra, near its famous Greco-Roman ruins, and on a meeting attended by commanders of Iranian-backed militias in the city. According to the SOHR, at least 70 of the victims were Syrian pro-Iran fighters, including Hizbullah members, and 29 were foreign nationals – mostly Iraqis from the Iran-backed Al-Nujaba Brigades. UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen emphasised the urgent need for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon to prevent Syria from being drawn further into a regional war. The IDF previously stated it would not allow Tehran to expand its influence in the country. Further airstrikes are expected.
Click here to access Global Intake Syria’s profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Internal tensions rise as Somalia deploys troops to Raskamboni
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; political stability; governability risks
In Somalia, on 25 November Mogadishu deployed elite troops to Raskamboni, Lower Juba region, after incumbent Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe announced his victory in the Jubaland presidential elections earlier in the day. An outspoken critic of Mogadishu, Madobe’s reelection has further deepened tensions with President Hassan Shiekh Mohamud. These arose on 7 October when Madobe withdrew from the National Consultative Council (NCC) in protest of the exclusion of two federal member states in the NCC session. Additionally, he opposed Mohamud’s one person, one vote (1P1V) policy, claiming the system is ripe for exploitation and will lead to illegal term extensions. On 10 November Madobe suspended cooperation with Mogadishu until 1P1V was removed from the legislation and warned Mogadishu against sliding into further civil war. Talks are likely to be held to dissuade tensions in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile
