Americas: Opposition leader Machado calls for nationwide anti-government protests in Venezuela
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; traffic disruption
In Venezuela, on 5 January opposition leader Maria Corina Machado urged supporters to demonstrate nationwide on 9 January to oust President Nicolas Maduro ahead of his 10 January inauguration for a third term. This came hours after the National Assembly leader Jorge Rodriguez stated the legislature would request the arrest of opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who was officially recognised as “President-elect” by Washington on 19 November 2024. On 2 January Maduro’s government announced a US$100,000 reward for information on Gonzalez’s whereabouts. Gonzalez’s potential arrest would be based on the criminalisation of support for economic sanctions against the country. Gonzalez – in exile since 8 September in Spain – has stated he would return to be sworn in as president. While Maduro is highly likely to be sworn in as president, the risk of anti-government protests and security deployment will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: People’s Bank of China announces intent for “historic” monetary policy shift
Sectors: finance; banking
Key Risks: policy uncertainty; economic risks
In China, on 6 January the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that it intended to cut interest rates from 1.5 per cent, signalling a “historic” shift in monetary policy that would re-classify Beijing’s approach to lending as “moderately loose”. This would be the country’s first lowering of interest rates since 2011 and would align the PBoC more closely with approaches taken by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Although the PBoC did not confirm a date for when the rate cuts would take place, it stated that it would occur “at an appropriate time” in 2025 and that the policy change sought “to prioritise the role of interest rate adjustments above quantitative objectives”. Changes in the country’s economic landscape following the lowering of interest rates are likely as businesses seek to borrow money in greater amounts.
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Eurasia: Tensions between Moldova and Transnistria to rise over energy crisis
Sectors: energy
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; economic and business risks; internal conflict
In Moldova, on 6 January the breakaway region of Transnistria announced that it could face a complete electricity collapse after Russia stopped transiting gas via Ukraine due to the expiration of their transit contract on 1 January. While Moscow could use other routes to supply Moldova with gas, on 1 January Gazprom cut off gas supplies to the country allegedly due to debt disputes. Gazprom claims Chisinau owns around US$709m for past gas supplies, which Chisinau denies, claiming the debt stands at US$8.6m. The impact on Moldova has been limited by the country’s diversification efforts but Transnistria has been severely affected. While Chisinau stated it had offered support to the region, Tiraspol reportedly rejected the offer and instead blamed the government for the crisis. The issue will increase tensions between Tiraspol and Chisinau, with Moscow likely using the issue to destabilise the government in Moldova.
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Europe: Austria’s far-right poised to return after centre-right OVP-led coalition talks collapse
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy deadlock; polarisation; civil unrest
In Austria, on 5 January acting Chancellor Karl Nehammer resigned after coalition talks between his centre-right People’s Party (OVP), the liberal Neos party and the Social Democrats (SPO) collapsed. Nehammer stated that “destructive forces” within the SPO had “gained the upper hand”, making OVP’s participation in a prospective coalition impossible. OVP’s Secretary-General and interim leader Christian Stocker stated that his party authorised him to enter coalition talks with the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), which won the 29 September parliamentary elections, marking a U-turn as OVP previously pledged not to work with the far-right. The collapse signals the likely failure of mainstream parties to keep the far-right out of power amid an inability to overcome their significant ideological divides. FPO’s prospects of entering government appear increasingly likely. Political stability risks will remain high.
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MENA: At least 88 killed in escalating IDF operations in Gaza as ceasefire increasingly distant
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war
In Gaza and the West Bank, on 5 January at least 88 Palestinians were killed in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes across central and southern Gaza. Since 2 January, IDF has intensified and expanded its assault and siege tactics, which were initially focused on northern Gaza from 6 October 2024, with IDF stating that it aims to “prevent Hamas from regaining its strength in the region”. Over 200 Palestinians were killed between 3-5 January, bringing the reported death toll to 45,800 since the Israel-Gaza war started on 7 October 2023. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks in Doha and Cairo have shown tentative progress, with Hamas agreeing to release 34 hostages as part of the first phase of the deal. However, talks have stalled as Hamas refused to confirm the status of the hostages. A ceasefire deal remains elusive, with IDF operations expected to continue at high intensity.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Mondlane to return to Mozambique for next round of protests
Sectors: all
Key risks: political instability, civil unrest, governability risks
In Mozambique, on 9 January opposition figure Venancio Mondlane plans to return to the country at Mavalane International Airport at 08:00 local time to lead the next protest phase, labelled “Spearhead”. Following a pause in demonstrations on 31 December, plans were initially unclear after Mondlane delayed the next round of protest on 2 January. The shift in Mondlane’s timing is likely an effort to sustain protest momentum ahead of President-elect Daniel Chapo’s inauguration on 15 January. The government’s proposed military expansion of 221,000 personnel by 28 February and the extension of military service to six years indicate efforts to stabilise the country amid the persisting risk of future protests post-inauguration. Mondlane is highly likely to be arrested as he has an outstanding warrant, with the public, civil society and opposition parties likely to demand in-person talks between Mondlane and Chapo.
Click here to access Mozambique’s Global Intake profile
