Date first published: 7/1/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; regime change
Risk Development
On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population census, while drafting a new constitution may require three years.
Why it matters
Since taking control, HTS has established a caretaker government to manage basic services until 1 March. The new administration has recognised the need for a landmark national dialogue conference to shape the nation’s future, but no date has been determined yet. Syrian media had previously reported that the conference would be held on 4-5 January, with plans to gather around 1,200 delegates from various religious, ethnic, geographic and political backgrounds. The national dialogue, scheduled before 1 March, aims to address the suspension of parliament as well as begin drafting a new constitution.
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