Americas: Private sector set to strike on 10 February in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: economic risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruptions
In Bolivia, on 10 February business unions and export associations are set to stage a nationwide 24-hour strike to protest President Luis Arce’s government’s refusal to repeal Article 7 of the 2025 General Budget Law. The article allows for the confiscation of products suspected of being used for price speculation, which businesses argue creates legal uncertainty and threatens private property and investment. Although the government indicated it was open to dialogue, President Arce stated that the strike amounted to a political act of sabotage. This came amid the country’s severe economic crisis, characterised by rising prices and fuel and dollar shortages. A disruption of economic activity and supply chains, with demonstrations and road blockades in major cities, is expected. The risk of a multi-sectoral strike extension will be heightened should the private sector and government fail to reach an agreement.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippines’ impeached Vice President Sara Duterte refuses to resign
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; disruptive unrest; political polarisation
In the Philippines, on 7 February impeached Vice President Sara Duterte refused to resign from her post, instead vowing to carry out a legal battle in the Senate. Duterte, who was impeached by the House of Representatives on 5 February, is accused of constitutional violations, mishandling of public funds and threats of preemptively hiring an assassin to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., from whom Duterte is personally and politically estranged. Duterte also implied that she may welcome her father, former prosecutor and president Rodrigo Duterte, to her legal defence team. On 13 January nearly two million people protested countrywide to withdraw the motion to impeach Duterte, indicating that she still holds a level of support throughout the country. Political stability risks will remain elevated ahead of the Senate hearing and 12 May midterm election.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Trump reportedly speaks to Russia’s Putin amid push for peace talks in Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 8 February US President Donald Trump stated he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone over a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, while declining to comment on how many times the two had spoken. This came as US officials pressed Moscow and Kyiv to enter talks through backchannel diplomacy, with Trump expected to unveil his concrete “peace plan” for ending the conflict. Moscow reportedly remains adamant on its demands for Kyiv to cede control of Russian-occupied territories and renounce NATO ambitions – conditions viewed by Kyiv as amounting to surrender. Separately, on 7 February Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated he was ready to accept a deal with Trump that includes supplying Washington with Kyiv’s rare earth minerals in exchange for security guarantees. Pressure for a negotiated ceasefire and peace talks will intensify in the coming weeks.
Click here to access Ukraine’s and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Romanian President resigns ahead of debate on his removal; tensions to remain high
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Romania, on 10 February President Klaus Iohannis resigned ahead of a parliamentary debate on his removal from office. The motion was initiated by three far-right parties in parliament, supported by the centrist Save Romania Union (USR), with some members of the ruling coalition also expected to vote in favour. Iohannis stated that he decided to resign to spare the country a political crisis. Iohannis will be replaced by Senate President Ilie Boloja who will occupy the office in an interim capacity until the May presidential election. Iohannis remained in power following the Constitutional Court’s 6 December 2024 decision to annul the outcome of the 24 November presidential election over potential third-party interference in favour of presidential candidate Calin Georgescu. Following the announcement, clashes reportedly broke out between Georgescu’s supporters and the police in Bucharest, suggesting that despite Iohannis’s resignation, tensions will remain high ahead of the May vote.
Click here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: New cabinet announced in Lebanon led by PM Nawaf Salam as ceasefire holds
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; regional conflict
In Lebanon, on 8 February President Joseph Aoun announced the formation of a new government headed by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. The new administration, pending parliamentary approval, pledged to reform the country’s sectarian political system and weaken Hizbullah’s influence in a bid to access desperately needed reconstruction funds and implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, essential to forging peace with Israel. Washington – itself directly engaged in the process – lauded the newly formed cabinet, whose 24 ministers reportedly feature prominent businessmen. As the 27 November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah largely holds – with the exception of sporadic Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes in the south and disputes over IDF troop withdrawal – Beirut prepares for reconstruction. Renewed political stability is expected to gradually stabilise the country’s economy and attract foreign investment.
Click here to access Lebanon’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sudan Armed Forces plans for new government after Khartoum’s recapture
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; governability; political stability
In Sudan, on 8 February the leader of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced plans to form a new national government once Khartoum was recaptured from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Depending on constitutional amendments, a technocratic prime minister will be appointed and the government would govern as a caretaker until the conflict is resolved. This was a likely response to RSF efforts to form a parallel government on 30 November 2024 based in the wider Darfuri region. The Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces – known as Tagadum – announced its split on 9 February due to internal tensions over support for different warring factions. The SAF has also expressed concerns over contacts between the RSF and Islamist parties linked to former president Omar al-Bashir. The decision will create further rifts between the two coalitions as the civil war enters a new phase.
Click here to access Sudan’s Global Intake profile
