Date first published: 24/06/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: regional tensions; regional escalation; geopolitical tensions
Risk development
On 13 June Israel struck Tehran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites and military command centres in Tehran. The attack prompted an immediate Iranian response with ‘Operation True Promise III’. Rejecting US President Donald Trump's calls for “unconditional surrender”, on 17 June Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that “the battle begins”. The conflict escalated significantly with US intervention on 22 June, when B‑2 bombers and cruise missiles hit Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi commented that Washington and Tel Aviv had “crossed a very big red line”. Tehran responded on 23 June by launching a calibrated missile attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar.
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