Date first published: 04/03/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks Risk development 24 February marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year of intensive negotiations led by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration have brought the two sides incrementally closer to a settlement, but key sticking points persist, […]
Americas: Senate approves historic labour reform in Argentina Sectors: allKey Risks: disruptive unrest; industrial action; business disruptions In Argentina, on 27 February the Senate approved President Javier Milei’s historic labour reform with 42 votes in favour, 28 against and two abstentions. The legislation – altering the country’s 50-year-old labour code – modernises labour relations, lowers […]
Date first published: 24/02/2026 Key sectors: defence and security; energy; logisticsKey risks: tribal violence; targeted attacks; violent clashes; governability; economic risks; supply chain disruption Risk development On 14 February Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar ordered a restructuring of southern formations following clashes involving ethnic Tebu fighters across Fezzan province. The move […]
Americas: CJNG cartel leader killed in security operation, triggers retaliatory violence in Mexico Sectors: allKey Risks: violent clashes; business disruptions; targeted attacks In Mexico, on 22 February Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho”, was killed during a US-assisted security operation, including the air force and special forces, in Tapalpa, […]
Date first published: 17/02/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; insurgency; regional conflict; war on land Risk development On 7 February in a letter addressed to the Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh Mohammed, his Ethiopian counterpart Gedion Timothewos accused Asmara of illegally encroaching on Ethiopian territory. He described the development as “outright aggression” and […]
Americas: Congress in Peru to debate motion to remove President Jeri Sectors: allKey Risks: political stability; civil unrest; government instability In Peru, on 13 February the head of Congress, Fernando Rospigliosi, announced a special plenary session for 17 February to debate a motion to remove President Jose Jeri. This came as Jeri’s tenure has become […]
Date first published: 05/02/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; business risks; frustration of process Risk development On 29 January Saudi Arabia unveiled a new National Privatisation Strategy aimed at significantly expanding the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in developing, operating and managing gigaprojects, in line with the goals of Vision 2030. The strategy […]
Americas: Remains of one of 10 kidnapped miners found in Mexico Sectors: all; miningKey Risks: gang violence; kidnapping; business risks In Mexico, on 6 February authorities confirmed that the remains of one of the 10 kidnapped miners of the Canadian Vizsla Silver Corp company were found in Concordia, Sinaloa state. The 10 miners – including […]
Date first published: 29/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political violence; political stability Risk development On 22 January Chief of Defence and son of President Yoweri Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, claimed that 30 people were killed and 2,000 were arrested around the 15 January election period. Kainerugaba’s inflammatory posts on X (formerly Twitter) […]
Americas: Right-wing populist Fernandez wins presidential election in Costa Rica Sectors: allKey Risks: policy continuity In Costa Rica, on 2 February right-wing populist Laura Fernandez of the Sovereign People’s Party won the 1 February presidential election with 48.3 per cent of the vote based on 94 per cent of ballots counted. Fernandez’s rival, Alvaro Ramos […]
Date first published: 27/01/2026 Key sectors: all; defence; mining Key risks: geopolitical tensions; regional conflict; economic risks; business risks; trade friction Risk development On 21 January US President Donald Trump backed down from his threat of tariffs on European countries, ruled out the use of military force and signalled that a ‘framework’ deal was reached […]
Americas: US restricts visas for two Haitian transitional council members following PM ouster Sectors: allKey Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; gang violence; civil unrest; governability In Haiti, on 25 January Washington stated it was imposing visa restrictions and revoking visas for two members of the transitional presidential council and their immediate families due to their […]
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