Date first published: 27/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict; policy uncertainty; economic risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; trade friction Risk development On 26 November, Beijing’s spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Peng Qingen, issued a sharp warning declaring that China would “crush any foreign interference” over Taiwan and […]
Americas: Preliminary results show Asfura leading in Honduran presidential elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability In Honduras, on 1 December preliminary results from 55 per cent of polling stations showed the conservative National Party’s Nasry Asfura leading with 40 per cent of the vote, ahead of the centrist Liberal Party’s Salvador Nasralla with 39.78 […]
Date first published: 25/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 18 November reports emerged that the United States (US) had drafted a 28-point plan in secret October talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. US officials claimed the proposal – requiring Ukraine to cede parts of Donetsk Oblast it still […]
Americas: US adds Venezuelan cartel to terror list, announces launch of new Venezuela phase Sectors: all Key Risks: regional escalation; regional conflict In Venezuela, on 24 November the US designated the Cartel de los Soles – which it asserts is linked to President Nicolas Maduro – a terrorist organisation. The move came after on 22 […]
Date first published: 18/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; political polarisation Risk development On 17 November former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was tried in absentia, found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death for her role in the violent crackdown on demonstrations on 18 July 2024, which left over […]
Americas: 120 injured in clashes at Gen Z-led protest in Mexico City Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes In Mexico, on 15 November 120 people – including 100 police officers – were injured and 20 were arrested after protesters attacked police with fireworks, stones, sticks and chains at a Gen Z-led […]
Date first published: 11/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political stability Risk development On 10 November authorities issued warrants for the arrest of 10 senior opposition figures, including the CHADEMA party’s secretary general, spokesperson and members of its central committee. This followed the 9 November arrest of the party’s deputy secretary […]
Americas: Chile to head to polls on 16 November for presidential election Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy uncertainty In Chile, on 16 November citizens will head to polling stations to vote in the presidential election – the first since 2012 in which voting is compulsory. On 27 October a Centro de Estudios Publicos […]
Date first published: 4/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: sanctions; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development On 22 October the United States (US) Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, in a sharp reversal of US policy amid President Donald Trump’s frustration with Russia’s stalling of peace […]
Americas: Hundreds protest deadly police raid in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest In Brazil, on 31 October hundreds of civilians – including labour unions and human rights groups – protested in the Penha favela complex in Rio de Janeiro. Protesters demanded an end to “military incursions” into the favelas, the resignation […]
Date first published: 23/10/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political violence; civil unrest; separatism; terrorism; targeted attacks; regional escalation; regional conflict Risk development On 11 October reports emerged that pressure mounted on the Polisario Front (PF) as UN and African bodies stepped up accusations of the group’s ties to Sahel-based extremist networks. The […]
Americas: Five killed in shooting attack in Ecuador amid escalating violence Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks In Ecuador, on 24 October five people were killed and one person was injured in a shooting attack at a pool hall in Santo Domingo, Santo Domingo de los Tsachila province. Officials stated armed assailants broke […]
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