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Nepal: A ‘Gen Z’ revolution

Date first published: 16/09/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks:  civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political violence; violent clashes; Risk development On 8 September ‘Gen Z’ student-led protests mobilised tens of thousands of people countrywide, triggered by a ban on social media activity – widely seen as authoritarian overreach. Protesters repeatedly clashed with security forces and police opened […]

Ones to Watch, 15 September 2025

Americas: Contractors protest outside state oil firm Pemex’s facilities in Mexico Sectors: oil and gasKey Risks: business risks; business disruptions; industrial action In Mexico, on 9 September dozens of contractors from Veracruz and Oaxaca states – including suppliers and local construction companies – protested outside state-owned oil company Pemex’s facilities in the capital Mexico City, […]

Sudan-South Sudan: Pipe dreams

Date first published: 09/09/2025 Key sectors: oil & gas Key risks: armed conflict Risk development On 31 August the Sudanese Ministry of Energy and Petroleum announced an emergency shutdown of oil production in the Heglig oilfields, citing drone attacks conducted by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 and 30 August near the production facilities. […]

Ones to Watch, 8 September 2025

Americas: Venezuelan government boosts troops amid rising tensions with Washington Sectors: allKey Risks: regional escalation; gang violence; government instability In Venezuela, on 7 September President Nicolas Maduro’s government ordered additional troops to tackle drug trafficking in coastal states – including the Guajira region of Zulia state and the Paraguana peninsula in Falcon state – as […]

Turkey: Ruling AKP ascendant, opposition fragmented

Date first published: 28/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political violence; political polarization; arbitrary arrests; governance; civil unrest Risk development On 14 August Aydin Metropolitan Mayor Ozlem Cercioglu and three district mayors officially joined President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), citing internal divisions within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). […]

Ones to Watch, 1 September 2025

Americas: Guyana heads into general elections amid oil boom Sectors: allKey Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political uncertainty  In Guyana, on 1 September voters will cast ballots in general elections to decide whether President Irfaan Ali’s ruling People Progressive Party (PPP) will preserve its parliamentary majority – holding 33 out of 65 seats in the […]

Bolivia: A new chapter after 20 years of MAS

Date first published: 26/08/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governance; policy uncertainty; economic Risk development  On 17 August centrist senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) led the presidential election with 32.18 per cent, followed by conservative former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga of the Alianza coalition with 26.94 per cent. The […]

Ones to Watch, 26 August 2025

AKE International Risk Analysis

Americas: 19 killed, at least 71 injured in dissident former FARC rebel attacks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes In Colombia, on 21 August 19 people were killed and at least 71 were injured in two attacks, which President Gustavo Petro attributed to different dissident former FARC rebel factions. In Cali, […]

Ones to Watch, 23 June 2025

Americas: Panama’s government declares state of emergency in Bocas del Toro province Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes; vandalism; looting In Panama, on 20 June the government declared a state of emergency (SoE) – suspending certain constitutional protections and banning public gatherings – in Bocas del Toro province until 25 June. […]

DRC-Rwanda: Now or never

Date first published: 17/06/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: diplomatic; economic; war-on-land Risk development On 15 June Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs Olivier Nduhungirehe stated that the initial mid-June deadline for a peace deal between Kigali and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was indicative and that negotiations are still ongoing. This followed comments on […]

Ones to Watch, 16 June 2025

AKE International

Americas: Nationwide protests by former president CFK supporters expected in Argentina Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability In Argentina, on 10 June the Supreme Court upheld two lower courts’ 2022 corruption convictions, confirming former president and opposition Justicialist Party (JP) leader Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK)’s six-year prison sentence and a lifelong ban […]

Guinea: Put up or pack up

Date first published: 10/06/2025 Key sectors: mining Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; frustration of process Risk development On 29 May the government cancelled 129 mineral exploration permits, primarily focused on the gold, diamond and bauxite mining sectors. The stated reason was to facilitate a switch to a digitised system to reportedly optimise the licensing […]