Date first published: 17/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New […]
Americas: Libertarian Milei leads polls ahead of Argentina’s 22 October presidential vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; economic In Argentina, voters will head to the polls on 22 October in the most uncertain presidential race in the country’s recent history. The last polls to be released ahead of […]
Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
Americas: Noboa and Gonzalez to face off on 15 October in Ecuador’s presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political violence; political stability In Ecuador, on 15 October voters will head to the polls to choose between Luisa Gonzalez – an ally of leftist former president Rafael Correa – and businessman Daniel Noboa in […]
Date first published: 28/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; trade disruptions Risk development On 18 September Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary claim of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian state involvement in the June killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. While Trudeau did not substantiate […]
Americas: Government, EMC 10-month bilateral ceasefire to take effect in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 8 October President Gustavo Petro’s government and the EMC – the country’s largest dissident former FARC rebel group – will launch peace talks in Tibu, Norte de Santander department, and […]
Americas: Argentina’s JxC opposition coalition secures governorship of Mendoza province Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability In Argentina, on 24 September Alfredo Cornejo from the main opposition coalition, Juntos por el Cambio (JxC), won the governorship of Mendoza province in the last provincial governor election ahead of the 22 October general elections. […]
Date first published: 19/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; political violence; economic risks Risk development On 9 September President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih unexpectedly came in second to his main challenger, Malé Mayor Mohamed Muizzu from the opposition coalition led by the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) – with 39 per […]
Americas: President-elect to call on supporters to protest efforts against MS party in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability In Guatemala, on 15 September president-elect Bernardo Arevalo stated that he was planning to rally his supporters in the coming days to protest repeated efforts to derail his presidency before he is set […]
Date first published: 07/09/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas, all Key risks: political instability, economic, business risks Risk development On 30 August military officers announced during a televised address that they had seized power and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest just hours after the Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) announced Bongo as the winner […]
Americas: Heightened risk of civil unrest in Chile on 50th anniversary of 1973 coup Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; business interruption; political violence In Chile, on 10 September at least 11 people were arrested as thousands – including President Gabriel Boric – participated in demonstrations in the capital Santiago on the eve of the […]
Date first published: 31/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; political polarisation; civil unrest Risk Development On 22 August former real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from the populist Pheu Thai Party (PTP) was elected prime minister, ending 100 days of political impasse following the 14 May general election which ultimately sidelined the surprise winner […]