Date first published: 19/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; political violence; economic risks Risk development On 9 September President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih unexpectedly came in second to his main challenger, Malé Mayor Mohamed Muizzu from the opposition coalition led by the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) – with 39 per […]
Americas: President-elect to call on supporters to protest efforts against MS party in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability In Guatemala, on 15 September president-elect Bernardo Arevalo stated that he was planning to rally his supporters in the coming days to protest repeated efforts to derail his presidency before he is set […]
Date first published: 07/09/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas, all Key risks: political instability, economic, business risks Risk development On 30 August military officers announced during a televised address that they had seized power and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest just hours after the Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) announced Bongo as the winner […]
Americas: Heightened risk of civil unrest in Chile on 50th anniversary of 1973 coup Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; business interruption; political violence In Chile, on 10 September at least 11 people were arrested as thousands – including President Gabriel Boric – participated in demonstrations in the capital Santiago on the eve of the […]
Date first published: 31/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; political polarisation; civil unrest Risk Development On 22 August former real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from the populist Pheu Thai Party (PTP) was elected prime minister, ending 100 days of political impasse following the 14 May general election which ultimately sidelined the surprise winner […]
Date first published: 29/08/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: business and economic risks Risk development On 25 July Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement responding to “increased reports in international media” on the possibility of the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project (TCP). In the statement, the Ministry called the TCP an “absolutely […]
Americas: Main parties due to announce their 2024 presidential candidates in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Mexico, on 3 September the opposition alliance – made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – is set to announce […]
Date first published: 17/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability; economic Risk development On 13 August far-right libertarian Javier Milei unexpectedly won most votes in the presidential primaries. He secured 30.2 per cent of the ballots cast, defeating the candidates from the two coalitions that have ruled the country for the […]
Date first published: 10/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; political instability; violent clashes; civil war Risk development On 31 July the military government extended the country’s state of emergency by another six months – the fourth extension since the February 2021 coup d’état that ousted former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National […]
Americas: Heightened risk of political violence in Ecuador ahead of 20 August snap elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy uncertainty; political stability In Ecuador, on 20 August voters will choose the next president and lawmakers in snap elections triggered by President Guillermo Lasso’s 17 May dissolution of the National Assembly (NA) by decree […]
Date first published: 08/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime Risk development On 27 July the Kenyan Foreign Minister Alfred Mutua stated that Nairobi was ready to lead a multinational force in Haiti to fight against violent armed gangs and rampant insecurity. Mutua stated that Nairobi’s commitment was “to deploy […]
Americas: Argentina to decide its presidential candidates in 13 August primaries Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty In Argentina, on 13 August the presidential primaries – for which voting is mandatory for all citizens aged 18-70 – will be held. The primaries tend to be an accurate indicator of the outcome of the […]
