Date first published: 16/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, political violence, economic crisis Risk development Pakistan is facing the greatest threat to its internal stability since 1971 – with the military-dominated system of government challenged. The arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan outside an Islamabad court on 9 May triggered a wave […]
Americas: Tension over new asylum rules in US rises following lifting of Title 42 restrictions Sectors: all Key Risks: social unrest; policy uncertainty In the United States (US), on 11 May Title 42 regulations were lifted and new restrictions were implemented amid efforts to prevent migrants from crossing illegally at its southern border with Mexico. […]
Date first published: 04/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; civil unrest Risk description On 23 April Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced that it would set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor – the only transit route that connects Armenia and the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Baku claimed that Yerevan had “abused […]
Americas: Far-right, centre-right parties win vote to lead Chile’s constitutional rewrite Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability In Chile, far-right and centre-right parties will lead the Constitutional Council which will draft the country’s new constitution – scheduled to be put to referendum on 17 December. On 7 May Chileans voted to […]
Date first published: 02/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic policy; civil unrest Risk development The 14 May presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the most contested in Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule – initially as prime minister and now as President. Turkey is grappling with a protracted economic crisis, […]
Americas: US to allow sale of Venezuela’s US-based refiner Citgo to settle creditor claims Sectors: all; energy; mining Key Risks: sanctions; business risks In the US, on 1 May reports emerged indicating that the Justice Department had decided to no longer block the court-ordered sale of PDV Holding’s shares. PDV Holding is the US-based subsidiary […]
Date first published: 25/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; civil unrest Risk development In January 2016 Donald Trump, then running for the Republican nomination for president, claimed that he could “shoot somebody” and not lose votes. Trump has not shot anyone, but criminal charges, a civil suit for sexual assault, allegations that […]
Americas: Paraguay’s 30 April general elections to determine future of ties with Taipei Sectors: all Key Risks: policy shifts; political instability In Paraguay, general elections will be held on 30 April ending a tight election race that has been in the spotlight due to opposing views about whether to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The […]
Date first published: 13/04/2023 Key sectors: tourism; all Key risks: organised crime; violent crime; kidnapping; extortion; business disruption Risk development Organised and violent crime is on the rise in Mexico’s seemingly paradisiacal Caribbean beach resorts and their surrounding areas. On 16 March the United States (US) issued a travel alert warning travellers to “exercise […]
Americas: Annual inflation hits 104.3 per cent in Argentina; economic crisis set to deepen Sectors: all Key Risks: economic; sovereign default In Argentina, on 14 April official statistics agency INDEC reported that annual inflation hit 104.3 per cent in March amid a cost-of-living crisis that has significantly increased poverty. Inflation for the month was 7.7 […]
Date first published: 11/04/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: inflation; supply deficit; political tensions Risk development: On 2 April Saudi-led OPEC+ stunned global markets by announcing voluntary cuts totalling 1.2m bpd. Cuts will be effective from May and will last through end-2023, depending on global economic conditions. Oil markets responded to the […]
Americas: Brazil’s Petrobras to honour signed asset sales contracts, review other potential deals Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: business risk; contract reviews; frustration of process; contract frustration In Brazil, on 10 April state-owned oil firm Petrobras announced plans to move forward with the sale of five assets for which contracts have already been signed […]
