Americas: Venezuelan government arrests opposition leader Machado’s close ally Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; sanctions In Venezuela, on 9 March Attorney General Tarek Saab announced the arrest of Emill Brandt Ulloa – the regional campaign leader for opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado – over an alleged conspiracy against President Nicolas Maduro’s government by participating […]
Americas: Heightened political violence risks ahead of 2 June general elections in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence In Mexico, on 26 and 27 February, two mayoral candidates were killed in separate shooting attacks in Maravatio, Michoacan state. One of the victims was from the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the other was […]
Americas: Haiti’s PM Henry rallies support for UN-backed multinational force deployment Sectors: all Key Risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime In Haiti, on 14 February Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government announced that its officials met with Kenyan counterparts to draft a memorandum of understanding (MoU) and set a deadline for the deployment of a […]
Americas: Brazil’s Bolsonaro calls for 25 February demonstration amid coup plot accusations Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Brazil, on 25 February supporters of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro are set to attend a “peaceful event” in Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo state. The demonstration was called for by Bolsonaro on 13 February to rally […]
Americas: Controversial referendum over Essequibo region set for 3 December in Venezuela Sectors: all; oil and gas Key Risks: external conflict; civil unrest; border tension In Venezuela, on 3 December President Nicolas Maduro’s government will hold a public referendum over the disputed oil-rich Essequibo region amid recent escalations in a long-standing territorial dispute with neighbouring […]
Americas: President-elect Noboa expected to be sworn in on 23 November in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political uncertainty; political instability; policy continuity; governability risks In Ecuador, on 23 November President-elect Daniel Noboa is expected to be sworn in to begin his truncated 18-month term. On 11 November legislator-elect Pierina Correa stated that the tentative […]
Americas: Heightened risk of violent clashes and protests in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence; violent clashes In Honduras, on 1 November ruling Libre party lawmakers elected Johel Zelaya as interim Attorney General, with a committee vote where their members make up a majority – even though they represent a […]
Americas: Renewed protests likely as MS party’s legal immunity set to expire in Guatemala Sectors: all; cargo transport Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; political violence; violent clashes In Guatemala, on 31 October the immunity from legal cases granted to President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s Seed Movement (MS) party will expire. Any lawsuits filed against MS after […]
Americas: Over 40 organisations set to protest across Costa Rica on 25 October Sectors: all; transport Key Risks: civil unrest In Costa Rica, on 25 October anti-government demonstrators – including members of the National Council of Rectors (CONARE) union and 40 other student- and teacher-led social organisations – are set to protest nationwide. The protests […]
Date first published: 17/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New […]
Americas: Libertarian Milei leads polls ahead of Argentina’s 22 October presidential vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; economic In Argentina, voters will head to the polls on 22 October in the most uncertain presidential race in the country’s recent history. The last polls to be released ahead of […]
Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
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