Americas: Government and dissident former FARC rebel faction to open peace talks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 9 July President Gustavo Petro’s government and the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) dissident former FARC rebel group agreed to open peace talks, though an official start date […]
Date first published: 04/07/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism; political instability Risk development On 23 June Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, released a video in which he announced that his Wagner forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march for justice” […]
Americas: Protests likely as Brazil’s federal electoral court bans Bolsonaro from office until 2030 Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Brazil, on 30 June five out of seven federal electoral court (TSE) justices ruled that far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro abused his power and misused the media in the October 2022 election – which […]
Date first published: 27/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; internal conflict; political instability Risk overview Late on 23 June the head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, published a video in which he announced that his forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia as part of a “march […]
Americas: Government declares overnight curfews to tackle growing gang violence in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime In Honduras, on 25 June President Xiomara Castro’s government declared an overnight curfew in the cities of Choloma and San Pedro Sula, Cortes department, after at least 24 people were killed in separate […]
Date first published: 15/06/2023 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; transport; electricity Key risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping Risk development On 9 June President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group announced that they had reached a six-month nationwide bilateral ceasefire agreement effective from 3 August. […]
Americas: Heightened risk of social unrest ahead of 25 June general elections in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political violence; electoral fraud In Guatemala, on 25 June citizens will go to the polls to elect the next president and new members of congress amid record low public trust in the country’s institutions. Only […]
Date first published: 13/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; arbitrary detentions; civil unrest Risk development On 25 May the Constitutional Council rejected an appeal from the main opposition Candlelight Party to participate in the forthcoming general election scheduled for 23 July. The decision upheld the 15 May Election Commission ruling barring the […]
Americas: Trinidad and Tobago looking to restart idle LNG train in 2027 to boost output, exports Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: business risk In Trinidad and Tobago, on 8 June reports emerged indicating that the government plans to restart an idled liquefied natural gas (LNG) train – that was forced to shut down in […]
Date first published: 01/06/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political stability; political violence Risk development On 19 May Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) warmly embraced President Bashar al-Assad on his arrival in the Saudi city of Jeddah to attend the Arab League summit for the first time in 11 […]
Americas: Government and ELN guerrilla to conclude third round of peace talks in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; targeted attacks; violent clashes; violent crime; kidnapping In Colombia, on 8 June the government and the leftist ELN guerrilla group are set to conclude the ongoing third round of peace talks – which began on […]
Date first published: 30/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land Risk development On 21 May members of the Russian anti-Kremlin partisan groups that have contributed to the fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion – crossed the border from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast into Kozinka […]
