Americas: Far-right, centre-right parties win vote to lead Chile’s constitutional rewrite Sectors: all Key Risks: policy and regulatory uncertainty; political instability In Chile, far-right and centre-right parties will lead the Constitutional Council which will draft the country’s new constitution – scheduled to be put to referendum on 17 December. On 7 May Chileans voted to […]
Date first published: 02/05/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic policy; civil unrest Risk development The 14 May presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the most contested in Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule – initially as prime minister and now as President. Turkey is grappling with a protracted economic crisis, […]
Americas: US to allow sale of Venezuela’s US-based refiner Citgo to settle creditor claims Sectors: all; energy; mining Key Risks: sanctions; business risks In the US, on 1 May reports emerged indicating that the Justice Department had decided to no longer block the court-ordered sale of PDV Holding’s shares. PDV Holding is the US-based subsidiary […]
Date first published: 25/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; civil unrest Risk development In January 2016 Donald Trump, then running for the Republican nomination for president, claimed that he could “shoot somebody” and not lose votes. Trump has not shot anyone, but criminal charges, a civil suit for sexual assault, allegations that […]
Americas: Paraguay’s 30 April general elections to determine future of ties with Taipei Sectors: all Key Risks: policy shifts; political instability In Paraguay, general elections will be held on 30 April ending a tight election race that has been in the spotlight due to opposing views about whether to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The […]
Date first published: 13/04/2023 Key sectors: tourism; all Key risks: organised crime; violent crime; kidnapping; extortion; business disruption Risk development Organised and violent crime is on the rise in Mexico’s seemingly paradisiacal Caribbean beach resorts and their surrounding areas. On 16 March the United States (US) issued a travel alert warning travellers to “exercise […]
Americas: Annual inflation hits 104.3 per cent in Argentina; economic crisis set to deepen Sectors: all Key Risks: economic; sovereign default In Argentina, on 14 April official statistics agency INDEC reported that annual inflation hit 104.3 per cent in March amid a cost-of-living crisis that has significantly increased poverty. Inflation for the month was 7.7 […]
Date first published: 11/04/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: inflation; supply deficit; political tensions Risk development: On 2 April Saudi-led OPEC+ stunned global markets by announcing voluntary cuts totalling 1.2m bpd. Cuts will be effective from May and will last through end-2023, depending on global economic conditions. Oil markets responded to the […]
Americas: Brazil’s Petrobras to honour signed asset sales contracts, review other potential deals Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: business risk; contract reviews; frustration of process; contract frustration In Brazil, on 10 April state-owned oil firm Petrobras announced plans to move forward with the sale of five assets for which contracts have already been signed […]
Date first published: 04/04/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; internal conflict Risk development On 27 March after 12 consecutive weeks of protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a pause in the legislative process of the judicial reforms launched by his government. At the same time, to prevent the government’s immediate collapse, the […]
Americas: Former US president Donald Trump set to face criminal charges Sectors: all Key Risks: political polarisation In the United States, on 4 April former president Donald Trump is set to surrender to New York prosecutors. Trump, who is leading the race to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, faces criminal charges related to […]
Date first published: 28/03/2023 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: terrorism Risk development On 19 March nine Chinese workers were killed and two others were injured by unidentified armed assailants during an attack at the Chimbolo gold mine, near Bambari, Ouaka prefecture. The assailants stormed the facility’s premises around 05:00 local time and quickly […]
