Date first published: 29/08/2023 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: business and economic risks Risk development On 25 July Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement responding to “increased reports in international media” on the possibility of the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project (TCP). In the statement, the Ministry called the TCP an “absolutely […]
Americas: Main parties due to announce their 2024 presidential candidates in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Mexico, on 3 September the opposition alliance – made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – is set to announce […]
Date first published: 17/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; governability; political stability; economic Risk development On 13 August far-right libertarian Javier Milei unexpectedly won most votes in the presidential primaries. He secured 30.2 per cent of the ballots cast, defeating the candidates from the two coalitions that have ruled the country for the […]
Date first published: 10/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; political instability; violent clashes; civil war Risk development On 31 July the military government extended the country’s state of emergency by another six months – the fourth extension since the February 2021 coup d’état that ousted former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National […]
Americas: Heightened risk of political violence in Ecuador ahead of 20 August snap elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy uncertainty; political stability In Ecuador, on 20 August voters will choose the next president and lawmakers in snap elections triggered by President Guillermo Lasso’s 17 May dissolution of the National Assembly (NA) by decree […]
Date first published: 08/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang-related violence; organised crime; violent crime Risk development On 27 July the Kenyan Foreign Minister Alfred Mutua stated that Nairobi was ready to lead a multinational force in Haiti to fight against violent armed gangs and rampant insecurity. Mutua stated that Nairobi’s commitment was “to deploy […]
Americas: Argentina to decide its presidential candidates in 13 August primaries Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty In Argentina, on 13 August the presidential primaries – for which voting is mandatory for all citizens aged 18-70 – will be held. The primaries tend to be an accurate indicator of the outcome of the […]
Date first published: 01/08/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; business disruption Risk development On 26 July soldiers from the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (CNSP) carried out a coup and deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. On 28 July the CNSP announced General Abdourahmane Tchiani as leader of the military junta. […]
Americas: Government, ELN six-month bilateral ceasefire to take effect in Colombia Sectors: all; oil and gas; transport; electricity Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; violent crime; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, on 3 August a six-month nationwide bilateral ceasefire agreement – announced on 9 June – between President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist National Liberation Army […]
Date first published: 25/07/2023 Key sector: all Key risks: political instability; ethnic tensions; internal conflict Risk development On 21 June 2023 lawmakers in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (RS) – one of Bosnia’s two autonomous entities – voted to stop publishing UN High Representative Christian Schmidt’s decisions in the official gazette, meaning that his acts would […]
Americas: Mayor, 11 inmates killed as uptick in violent crime consolidates in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; violent crime; gang-related crime In Ecuador, on 23 July Mayor Agustin Intriago and one other person were killed and four people – including two assailants – were injured in a shooting attack by an identified criminal […]
Date first published: 18/07/2023 Key sectors: fishing; seafood Key risks: environmental; economic; business disruption Risk development On 4 July the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Tokyo’s plans to release 1.37m tonnes of treated water stored at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station into the sea was in line with IAEA Safety Standards. The […]
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