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Ones to Watch, 27 March 2023

Americas: Rare corruption probe suggests internal power struggle within Venezuela’s PSUV party Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; business risk In Venezuela, on 25 March the Attorney General announced that a total of 21 people – including 10 officials and 11 businesspeople – had been arrested since a rare and ongoing government-led corruption probe began […]

Argentina: Drug violence (finally) in the spotlight

Date first published: 21/03/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: drug trafficking; targeted killings; arson attacks; extortion; crime-related violence   Risk development Drug trafficking and associated violence have finally made it to the national public and security agenda. On 7 March President Alberto Fernandez announced the deployment of additional federal security forces – including 300 gendarmerie […]

Ones to Watch, 20 March 2023

Americas: Foreign exchange shortage stokes concerns over Bolivia’s deepening financial crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: credit risk; economic risk; business risk In Bolivia, on 19 March President Luis Arce’s government admitted the country was facing a foreign exchange (FX) shortage following overdemand for US dollars. The Central Bank’s FX reserves fell from US$15.12bln in 2015 […]

Australia: A national security focus on investments

Date first published: 09/03/2023 Key sectors: mining; national security; foreign investment Key risks: economic risks; business risks; frustration of process   Risk development On 15 February Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocked Chinese-owned Yuxiao Fund (YF) – the largest shareholder of Australian rare earths producer Northern Minerals (NM) – from increasing ownership from 9.92 to 19.9 per […]

Ones to Watch, 13 March 2023

Americas: Tech investment hit as SVB becomes second largest US bank to collapse Sectors: finance, technology Key Risks: banking crisis; slower investment In the United States, on 10 March Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed. SVB was the provider of banking services to around half of all venture-backed tech and life science companies in the country. […]

Ecuador: Further instability, disruptive unrest looms

Date first published: 07/03/2023 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; mining; cargo transport; retail Key risks: political instability; governability; business disruption; political violence; civil unrest   Risk development Three recent developments underscore a fresh heightened risk of political instability and disruptive unrest in Ecuador. On 5 February conservative President Guillermo Lasso suffered a significant defeat […]

Ones to Watch, 6 March 2023

Americas: Fresh anti-government unrest expected in Peru’s southern regions Sectors: all; mining; cargo transport Key Risks: civil unrest; business interruption; political violence; political stability In Peru, local communities are set to resume the blockade of a key transport road in the Southern Mining Corridor from 6 March. The fresh unrest to demand President Dina Boluarte’s […]

US: attacks on infrastructure

Date first published: 28/02/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; civilian infrastructure   Risk development In the first eight months of 2022, the Department of Energy recorded at least 101 incidents that they were deemed intentional attacks, threats of an attack or vandalism on the United States’ power grid. Between August 2022 and January 2023 […]

Ones to Watch, 27 February 2023

Americas: Ecuador’s CONAIE abandons government talks, demands Lasso’s resignation  Sectors: all; cargo transport Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest In Ecuador, on 24 February the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) announced that it had ended talks with President Guillermo Lasso’s government, stating that the latter had not complied with the agreements reached […]

Nigeria – Tinubu expected to snatch 25 February presidential election

Date first published: 16/02/23 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability, policy uncertainty Risk development On 15 February two Nigeria based research organisations, ANAP Foundation and Kwakol Research, published a poll that identified presidential candidate Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) as the most likely candidate to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari […]

Ones to Watch, 20 February 2023

Americas:  IMF-backed austerity measures spark unrest in Suriname Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political violence; political stability In Suriname, on 17 February 119 people were arrested and 20 others were injured as protesters stormed parliament, looted local businesses and clashed with police in the capital Paramaribo. Thousands participated in initially peaceful demonstrations against government […]

Iran – Russia: an alternative inter-bank system to skirt Western sanctions

Date first published: 08/02/23 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic, business   Risk development On 30 January Iran and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) creating an inter-bank messaging system that would allow financial transactions between Iranian and Russian banks to bypass the Belgium-based international Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. Tehran […]

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