Date first published: 18/10/2022 Key sectors: energy; military; economy Key risks: policy; economic Risk development On 5 October OPEC+ members, spearhead by Saudi Arabia, decided to cut oil production in a bid to raise falling prices. Non-OPEC member countries, including Russia, are part of OPEC +. The United States (US) immediately responded by accusing […]
Americas: Mapuche-related violence set to continue to increase in southern Argentina Sectors: all; tourism; construction; private property Key Risks: arson attacks; land occupations; disruptive, violent unrest; political violence In Argentina, indigenous Mapuche-related violence is on the upward trend. On 14 October at least two hooded, armed assailants held a watchman at gunpoint and burnt heavy […]
Date first published: 11/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; political violence; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 30 September Captain Ibrahim Toure launched a coup in the capital Ouagadougou and deposed military leader Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. By midnight, Toure dissolved the transitional government and suspended the constitution. Toure’s putsch came just nine […]
Americas: Colombian government and ELN guerrillas to resume formal peace talks in November Sectors: all; oil and gas; electricity Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, on 4 October President Gustavo Petro’s government and the leftist ELN guerrillas announced that formal peace talks between the two parties would resume in November. Norway, Venezuela […]
Date first published: 04/10/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; protests Risk development Since 17 September at least 83 protesters and security force personnel were killed and over 1,000 protesters were arrested following the death of Mahsa Amini, killed in police custody for failure to comply with the hijab dress code […]
Americas: Protests against persistent blackouts set to continue across Cuba Sectors: all; electricity Key Risks: civil unrest; arbitrary arrests; unrest-related disruption; government-led crackdown In Cuba, protests against persistent blackouts are expected to continue in the capital Havana and elsewhere across the island. Demonstrations – banned under the Communist Party of Cuba’s (PCC) one-party regime – […]
Date first published: 27/09/2022 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: war on land; war at sea; arms race Risk development On 31 August the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) began mass production of an extended-range version of their domestically produced Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM), which was initially approved in 2020, in FY2022/23, citing China’s […]
Americas: Brazil’s general elections likely to result in Bolsonaro-Lula face-off on 30 October Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty and continuity; political violence and instability; business risks In Brazil, general elections scheduled for 2 October are expected to lead to a face-off between former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right President Jair […]
Date first published: 20/09/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest Risk development The general election on 11 September produced a two-seat majority for the right-wing opposition bloc composed of the Moderate Party, the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), Christian Democrats and Liberals. Although the ruling Social Democrats remained the largest […]
Americas: Violent protests over fuel price hikes set to continue in Haiti Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; looting; vandalism; supply chain disruption In Haiti, violent protests over recent fuel price hikes, rampant gang-related violence and other socio-economic grievances are set to continue in the capital Port-au-Prince and other major cities. On 18 September Prime […]
Date first published: 13/09/2022 Key sectors: technology Key risks: supply chain disruptions; technological disruption Risk development In early September 2022, Washington introduced new licence requirements on the export of high-end semiconductor components and machinery to Chinese companies. The move follows the United States (US) banning the sale to China of electronic design automation (EDA) […]
Americas: Concerns over unrest set to persist after constitutional vote in Chile Sectors: all; mining; electricity; banking Key Risks: political stability; policy and regulatory uncertainty; civil unrest; political violence In Chile, the risk of disruptive unrest will remain heightened after voters overwhelmingly rejected the new constitution in the 4 September public referendum. Student-led protests in […]
