Americas Presidential race to heat up as Bolsonaro and Lula officially confirm their candidacies Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity; political instability In Brazil, the presidential race ahead of the 2 October general elections is expected to heat up, with a heightened risk of politically motivated violence. Far-right President Jair Bolsonaro officially launched […]
Date first published: 14/07/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest Risk overview On 1 July 18 people were killed and 243 injured after protesters clashed with security forces in Nukus, the capital of the country’s autonomous republic of Karakalpakstan, amid demonstrations over proposed changes to the constitution in which Karakalpakstan would be stripped […]
Americas: Protests set to continue in Panama despite deal between government and Anadepo Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; strikes; supply chain disruption In Panama, nationwide protests featuring road blockades are set to continue despite a new deal between the government and the Anadepo union, which is leading the ongoing protest movement over rising gasoline […]
Date first published: 07/07/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; civil unrest; political stability Risk development On 1 July pro-Beijing hardliner John Lee succeeded Carrie Lam as the new Chief Executive of Hong Kong. The former security chief voiced his ‘absolute confidence’ that there would not be a repeat of the 2019 civil […]
Americas: Cuba’s government-led crackdown on dissent persists a year after 11J protests Sectors: all Key Risks: government-led crackdown; arbitrary arrests; summary trials; sanctions In Cuba, the government-led crackdown on dissent shows no signs of abating a year after unprecedented anti-government protests that erupted on 11 July 2021. President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s administration controversially arrested hundreds of […]
Date first published: 30/06/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas; mining Key risks: policy continuity; political stability; economic and business risks; governability Risk development Former M-19 guerrilla Gustavo Petro will become the country’s first leftist president on 7 August. On 19 June he won a tight presidential runoff – 50.4 per cent to 47.3 […]
Americas: Argentina’s political, economic crises to deepen as economy minister resigns Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; governability; sovereign default In Argentina, ongoing political, economic and financial crises are set to deepen following the surprise resignation of Martin Guzman as economy minister on 2 July. Guzman’s decision risks further destabilising President Alberto Fernandez’s […]
Date first published: 23/06/2022 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: internal conflict; external conflict; bilateral relations Risk development On 17 June Kinshasa closed its border with Rwanda after Rwandan border guards killed a Congolese soldier who opened fire on police officers 25 km inside Rwandan territory. A week prior on 10 June, the two countries […]
Americas: Truckers and farmers set to strike across Peru over rising fuel, fertiliser prices Sectors: all; cargo transport Key Risks: supply chain disruption; civil unrest; strikes In Peru, truckers and farmers are set to strike across the country starting on 27 June to protest rising fuel and fertiliser prices. The disruptive measure was agreed on […]
Date first published: 16/06/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; sanctions Risk development On 10 June state-owned oil company PDVSA stated that the Greek-flagged Aframax Minerva Zoe oil tanker chartered by Italian oil firm Eni had arrived in Venezuelan waters to carry 650,000 barrels of diluted crude oil bound for […]
Americas: Disruptive anti-government protests enter second week across Ecuador Sectors: all; oil sector; retail; cargo transport Key Risks: business interruption; disruptive civil unrest; vandalism; sabotage In Ecuador, disruptive anti-government protests are expected to continue across the country over the coming week. Hundreds of indigenous protesters arrived in the capital Quito on 19 June defying a […]
Date first published: 14/06/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: leadership change; populist policy; trade disputes Risk development On 6 June Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson faced a vote of confidence from members of his own Conservative Party. Johnson managed to survive but won the support of only 211 MPs – 59 per cent of […]
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