Date first published: 26/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; civil unrest; government debt Risk development On 24 April President Emmanuel Macron secured five more years in the Elysee after defeating his far right rival Marine Le Pen in the presidential run-off. Macron won 58.5 per cent of the vote compared to 41.5 […]
Americas: Peru’s mining sector, copper output at risk of further disruption due to unrest Sectors: mining; extractive industries Key Risks: civil unrest; business disruption In Peru, the risk of unrest affecting the key mining sector will remain high over the coming weeks despite protesters reportedly lifting their 52-day-long protest at Southern Copper’s Cuajone copper mine. […]
Date first published: 14/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; political stability; civil unrest Risk development On 13 April the Ministry of Finance suspended all payments on external debt in order to pay for essential goods amid a deepening economic crisis. The statement, which was a complete contrast to the January assurance that […]
Americas: Mexico’s AMLO to continue to prioritise state over private sector despite major defeat Sectors: all; electricity; mining; oil and gas Key Risks: regulatory changes; contract frustration; nationalisations In Mexico, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will continue to prioritise the state over private players in the country’s key sectors despite a major defeat in […]
Date first published: 07/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; business disruption; supply-chain risks; war on land Risk development On 25 March the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party-turned rebel group, agreed to the federal government’s ‘cessation of hostilities’ to allow humanitarian aid into northern Tigray region, a day after Prime Minister […]
Americas: Lula appoints Alckmin as running mate to widen support ahead of October elections in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: business and economic risks; political stability In Brazil, leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva named former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate for the 2 October presidential elections amid shifting […]
Date first published: 31/03/2022 Key sectors: all; infrastructure Key risks: internal conflict; protests; business risks Risk development At least ten separatist attacks were recorded in Papua province in the month of March, including the killing of eight civilian technicians during an attack on the Telkomsel tower in Beoga, Puncak district on 2 March. These […]
Americas: Risk of disruptive, violent unrest remains high in Peru despite five-day truce Sectors: all; cargo transport, agriculture Key Risks: business and economic risks; supply chain disruption; civil unrest In Peru, the risk of disruptive, violent unrest will remain high over the coming days despite a five-day truce in place until 7 April, agreed by […]
Date first published: 29/03/2022 Key sectors: oil and gas; all Key risks: political violence; war on land; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 16 March the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – comprised of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – invited Yemen’s Iran-backed Huthi militia to peace talks scheduled […]
Americas: Centrist candidates to face off in Costa Rica’s tight 3 April presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; governability In Costa Rica, former centrist president Jose Maria Figueres of the National Liberation Party (PLN) and former finance minister Rodrigo Chaves will face off in a tight presidential runoff on 3 April. […]
Date first published: 22/03/2022 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: all; war on land Risk development On 27 February Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a special address to the Bundestag in which he described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a ‘Zeitenwende’ or turning point in the history of the European continent. He proceeded to […]
Americas: Canada’s CP Rail halts operations amid strike, supply chain disruption looms Sectors: all; rail transport; agriculture; manufacturing Key Risks: business and economic risks; supply chain disruption; civil unrest In Canada, on 20 March Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) halted operations and locked out employees after talks with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union failed […]
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