Date first published: 18/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; government intervention Risk development The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), also known as the ‘Sixth Plenum’, ended on 11 November, adopting a ‘historical resolution’ that sets up President Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2022 […]
Americas: Honduras’s opposition to challenge ruling PNH’s re-election in highly contested vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; political violence In Honduras, Xiomara Castro from the main leftist opposition Libre party will face Tegucigalpa mayor Nasry Asfura from the ruling centre-right National Party (PNH) and 12 other presidential hopefuls in the […]
Date first published: 11/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political violence; political instability Risk development On 2 November Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a state of emergency following the advancement of the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) further southward in Amhara region, capturing the towns of Dessie, […]
Americas: Chile’s highly uncertain general elections likely to lead to presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; governability; civil unrest In Chile, highly uncertain general elections scheduled for 21 November are expected to lead to a 19 December presidential runoff potentially between far-right former congressman Antonio Kast and leftist lawyer Gabriel Boric. […]
Date first published: 09/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability Risk development Thousands of Georgians, spearheaded by the United Nation Movement (UNM), have joined protests in the last week, both against the 31 October mayoral elections and the imprisonment of former president and an opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili. They alleged that the elections […]
Americas: Argentina’s ruling FdT coalition to face heavy losses in 14 November midterm elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; governability; civil unrest In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) leftist coalition is expected to face heavy losses in the crucial 14 November midterm legislative elections. Recent polls suggest that the main opposition Juntos por […]
Date first published: 02/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 25 October General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup in the capital Khartoum in which Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers were arrested, the military-civilian Sovereign Council government was dissolved and a state of […]
Americas: Nicaragua’s President Ortega to secure controversial re-election on 7 November Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; arbitrary detentions; crackdown on political opposition In Nicaragua, leftist President Daniel Ortega is expected to secure a fourth consecutive presidential term in the highly controversial 7 November general elections. The vote is set to be neither free nor fair […]
Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Americas: Indigenous-led protests to put pressure on Ecuador’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; business disruption In Ecuador, the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) plans to go ahead with nationwide demonstrations scheduled for 26 October to protest against right-wing President Guillermo Lasso’s government. Social movements, trade unions, teachers and other groups plan […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Americas: Chile’s protest movement reaches two-year anniversary amid persistent risk of unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; protest-related violence; political instability In Chile, on 18 October nationwide demonstrations and related disruption are expected to mark the two-year anniversary of the anti-government protest movement that erupted in October 2019. Although the intensity of the protests has significantly […]
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