Americas: Prime Minister’s assassination attempt highlights Haiti’s deepening instability risks Sectors: all; cargo transport; retail; overland travel Key Risks: political instability; targeted attacks; gang-related violence; disruptive unrest In Haiti, political instability and rampant gang-related violence will remain extremely high risks in 2022, as demonstrated by the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Ariel Henry on 1 […]
Date first published: 23/12/21 Key sectors: all Key risks: COVID-19; inflation; debt Risk development In a baseline case a continued recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could lead global growth to expand by more than 4.5 per cent in 2022 – down from 2021 – but still ahead of 2019. There were hopes that by the end of 2022 that the global economy would have […]
Americas: Barbados Prime Minister Mottley aims to secure re-election in January snap vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Barbados, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of the Barbados Labor Party (BLP) is aiming to secure re-election in a snap vote to strengthen her mandate only weeks after the former British colony […]
Date first published: 16/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development The much-delayed Legislative Councils (LegCo) election is set to take place on 19 December, marking the first major election since the Chinese and local governments implemented a series of electoral changes that drastically remade Hong Kong’s political system. The […]
Americas: Tensions risk escalating as 13 killed over land disputes in southern Guatemala Sectors: land ownership; transport; overland travel Key Risks: violent clashes; disruptive unrest In Guatemala, tensions risk increasing after 13 people were killed during violent clashes over land disputes in Chiquix village, Nahuala municipality, Solola department between 17 and 18 December. The police […]
Date first published: 13/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; trade Risk development In the first week of November, Ukraine and United States (US) officials warned of a Russian military build-up near its border with Ukraine after it amassed a force of up to 100,000 troops in the area. The build-up […]
Americas: Far-right and far-left to face off on 19 December presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; governability; civil unrest In Chile, far-right former congressman Jose Antonio Kast and far-left lawyer Gabriel Boric will face off in a highly polarised presidential runoff on 19 December. Recent polls suggest that Boric maintains a […]
Date first published: 02/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; regulatory changes Risk development Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidency and is set to end 12 years of centre-right Partido Nacional de Honduras (PNH) rule. Although the official results are still to be announced, two days after the 28 […]
Americas: Opposition against Venezuela’s Maduro set to further weaken Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; civil unrest In Venezuela, on 5 December Foreign Minister of the US-backed interim government Julio Borges announced his resignation in another blow to President Nicolas Maduro’s opposition, signalling growing divisions within the latter. Borges, exiled in Colombia, stated […]
Date first published: 30/11/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas; all Key risks: political violence; war on land; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 16 November Libyan National Army warlord Khalifa Haftar announced plans to run in Libya’s upcoming 24 December presidential elections. This followed a similar announcement on 14 November by Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, […]
Americas: Peru’s extractives facing heightened disruption, operational uncertainty risks Sectors: mining; oil and gas Key Risks: civil unrest; operational disruption; regulatory uncertainty In Peru, leftist President Pedro Castillo’s government will continue to face mounting pressure from companies operating in the extractive industries sector and from local protesters opposing their activities. On 25 November local communities warned that […]
Date first published: 18/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; government intervention Risk development The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), also known as the ‘Sixth Plenum’, ended on 11 November, adopting a ‘historical resolution’ that sets up President Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2022 […]
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