Date first published: 10/8/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: border clashes; terrorism; humanitarian crisis Risk development Taliban militants have made significant territorial gains since 1 May 2021, the initial date for the withdrawal of international troops as agreed under the United States (US)-Taliban deal of February 2020. Many of these gains have occurred in […]
Americas: Venezuela’s Maduro, opposition to re-launch talks ahead of November elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro’s government and the opposition are set to start as early as 13 August in Mexico. On 4 August Maduro’s government reportedly agreed to launch the Oslo-mediated talks […]
Date first published: 29/7/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: sanctions; policy uncertainty; economic Risk development On 21 July Berlin and Washington signed an agreement to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2), the highly controversial gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany worth US$9.5bln. Nord Stream 2 AG, wholly owned by […]
Americas: Further protests demanding President Giammattei step down expected in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: unrest-related violence and disruption; political instability In Guatemala, escalating anti-government sentiment is expected to fuel further unrest at least over the coming days. On 31 July protests demanding President Alejandro Giammattei’s and Attorney General Consuelo Porras’s resignation were reported for […]
Date first published: 22/07/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; violent unrest; deadly clashes; crime; kidnap and ransom Risk development President Jovenel Moise was shot dead in his private residence on 7 July. Just over two weeks after the assassination, the exact details on the perpetrators, including their motives, remain to be confirmed. […]
Americas: Far-left Pedro Castillo to take office on 28 July amid high instability risks Sectors: all; mining, oil Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; business risks; FoP In Peru, on 28 July far-left Pedro Castillo will be sworn in as the country’s first hard left president in recent history amid heightened governability and political instability […]
Americas: Moderate candidates win Chile’s presidential primaries ahead of November’s vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; protests In Chile, on 18 July former cabinet minister Sebastian Sichel of the ruling centre-right Chile Vamos coalition and lawyer Gabriel Boric from the leftist Apruebo Dignidad coalition surprisingly won the presidential primaries ahead of the […]
Americas: Protests and associated violent repression to persist across Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; unrest-related violence; government-led crackdown, arbitrary arrests In Cuba, unprecedented nationwide anti-government demonstrations and associated violent repression are expected to persist over the coming days. Protests, which are banned under the Communist Party of Cuba’s (PCC) one party regime, started […]
Americas: Oil majors reportedly mulling to launch offshore oil exploration in Colombia by 2022 Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: business and economic risks; unrest-related violence In Colombia, the government aims to accelerate offshore oil exploration and development to reverse a recent plunge in output from traditional onshore fields. On 29 June Energy Minister Diego […]
Americas: Chile’s Constituent Assembly to start drafting new constitution on 4 July Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; protests; political violence In Chile, the Constituent Assembly (CA) tasked with drafting a new constitution is scheduled to hold its first session on 4 July. The CA, whose 155 members were elected in mid-May, will […]
Ones to Watch Americas: Protests against Bolsonaro’s COVID-19 response expected to persist across Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; policy-making In Brazil, protests against President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to continue to regularly occur. On 19 June thousands took to the streets in Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro, […]
Americas: Pedro Castillo expected to win Peru’s presidential runoff, pending results Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; governability; economic risks; policy continuity; civil unrest In Peru, far-left presidential frontrunner Pedro Castillo is expected to be declared the winner of the 6 June presidential runoff in the coming days. His conservative opponent, Keiko Fujimori, has so […]
