Date first published: 02/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; economic Risk development On 17-19 September, Russia will hold elections for the State Duma, its main legislative chamber. The election will be the least free since President Vladimir Putin’s first election in 2000. State oppression against political opposition, activism and independent media […]
Americas: Argentina’s ruling FdT coalition to face first major electoral test in midterm primaries Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) leftist coalition will face its first major electoral test in the upcoming 12 September midterm primaries, given that primary elections are considered a […]
Date first published: 31/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; default hyperinflation; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 23 August the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that their global allocation of US$650bln special drawing rights (SDRs) came into effect. On 25 August the Central Bank of Yemen based in Aden confirmed their […]
Americas: Opposition to announce participation in Venezuela’s upcoming regional, local vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; electoral violence; civil unrest In Venezuela, the four main opposition parties – Primero Justicia, Accion Democratica, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Voluntad Popular – plan to announce their intention to participate in the 21 November regional and local elections, […]
Date first published: 24/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political violence; terrorism; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 15 August, Taliban militants entered Kabul, overrunning the presidential palace 20 years after the United States (US)-led coalition ousted the group in 2001. The move came after rapid Taliban territorial gains which […]
Americas: Looting, insecurity risks to continue to rise following Haiti’s earthquake Sectors: all Key Risks: looting; violent unrest; criminal activity and associated clashes In Haiti, looting incidents and overall insecurity are set to remain a high risk in the aftermath of the devastating 14 August earthquake. On 22 August Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier, the leader of […]
Date first published: 17/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty Risk Development Ahead of the general election that must be held by the end of October, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has recorded its lowest approval rate between the months of June and August. No Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-led government has survived with an […]
Americas: Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberal Party likely to win 20 September snap elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; economic risks; governability In Canada, on 15 August Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for snap federal elections to be held on 20 September after requesting the governor-general to dissolve the parliament, citing the need to secure […]
Date first published: 10/8/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: border clashes; terrorism; humanitarian crisis Risk development Taliban militants have made significant territorial gains since 1 May 2021, the initial date for the withdrawal of international troops as agreed under the United States (US)-Taliban deal of February 2020. Many of these gains have occurred in […]
Americas: Venezuela’s Maduro, opposition to re-launch talks ahead of November elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro’s government and the opposition are set to start as early as 13 August in Mexico. On 4 August Maduro’s government reportedly agreed to launch the Oslo-mediated talks […]
Date first published: 29/7/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: sanctions; policy uncertainty; economic Risk development On 21 July Berlin and Washington signed an agreement to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2), the highly controversial gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany worth US$9.5bln. Nord Stream 2 AG, wholly owned by […]
Americas: Further protests demanding President Giammattei step down expected in Guatemala Sectors: all Key Risks: unrest-related violence and disruption; political instability In Guatemala, escalating anti-government sentiment is expected to fuel further unrest at least over the coming days. On 31 July protests demanding President Alejandro Giammattei’s and Attorney General Consuelo Porras’s resignation were reported for […]