Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Americas: Indigenous-led protests to put pressure on Ecuador’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; business disruption In Ecuador, the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) plans to go ahead with nationwide demonstrations scheduled for 26 October to protest against right-wing President Guillermo Lasso’s government. Social movements, trade unions, teachers and other groups plan […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Americas: Chile’s protest movement reaches two-year anniversary amid persistent risk of unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; protest-related violence; political instability In Chile, on 18 October nationwide demonstrations and related disruption are expected to mark the two-year anniversary of the anti-government protest movement that erupted in October 2019. Although the intensity of the protests has significantly […]
Date: 07/10/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: volatility; supply chain disruptions; social discontent Risk development Over the last month, householders and factories across at least 19 Chinese provinces experienced some form of power curbs and power rationing. In some parts of the country, large manufacturers and power consumers had their power disconnected entirely for […]
Americas: Ecuador’s Lasso, Chile’s Pinera to face pressure over the ‘Pandora Papers’ leak Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; corruption; civil unrest Ecuador’s conservative President Guillermo Lasso and Chile’s right-wing President Sebastian Pinera are set to face growing pressure over their alleged implication in tax violations following the recent ‘Pandora Papers’ leak. On 10 October Ecuador’s National Assembly voted […]
Date first published: 30/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; business; economy Risk Development The German federal elections held on 26 September produced a fragmented Bundestag. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) secured a narrow victory with 25.7 per cent, defeating the ruling CDU/CSU conservative bloc which attained a historic low of […]
Americas: Paraguay’s ruling Colorado party seeks to consolidate power in local elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Paraguay, the ruling centre-right Colorado Party will seek to consolidate its power in the upcoming 10 October midterm local elections. The vote, postponed from November 2020 due to COVID-19, will be tightly […]
Date first published: 28/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; border conflicts Risk development For the first time in decades, inflation is a risk to the global economic outlook. Inflation in the G-20 is forecast to increase to 3.7 per cent this year, increasing to 3.9 per cent in 2022. By historical standards, inflation […]
Americas: Talks between Venezuela’s Maduro and opposition continue with delays in Mexico City Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro’s government and the opposition resumed on 26 September after a two-day delay caused by the late arrival of Maduro’s delegation in Mexico City. The latest […]
Date first published: 21/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks:terrorism Risk development The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has raised fears of a revival of Islamist terrorism across Southeast Asia. These fears appear to be justified. On 20 August, Indonesian police announced they had foiled an unspecified terrorist attack due to occur on 17 August, the country’s […]
Americas: Dismissal of attorney general, justice minister plunge Haiti into another crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; governability; violent unrest In Haiti, instability risks will remain very high after the country plunged into yet another political crisis. On 15 September interim prime minister Henry replaced Justice Minister Rockfeller Vincent with Interior Minister Liszt Quitel, […]
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