Date first published: 22/07/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; violent unrest; deadly clashes; crime; kidnap and ransom Risk development President Jovenel Moise was shot dead in his private residence on 7 July. Just over two weeks after the assassination, the exact details on the perpetrators, including their motives, remain to be confirmed. […]
Americas: Far-left Pedro Castillo to take office on 28 July amid high instability risks Sectors: all; mining, oil Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; business risks; FoP In Peru, on 28 July far-left Pedro Castillo will be sworn in as the country’s first hard left president in recent history amid heightened governability and political instability […]
Americas: Moderate candidates win Chile’s presidential primaries ahead of November’s vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; protests In Chile, on 18 July former cabinet minister Sebastian Sichel of the ruling centre-right Chile Vamos coalition and lawyer Gabriel Boric from the leftist Apruebo Dignidad coalition surprisingly won the presidential primaries ahead of the […]
Americas: Protests and associated violent repression to persist across Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; unrest-related violence; government-led crackdown, arbitrary arrests In Cuba, unprecedented nationwide anti-government demonstrations and associated violent repression are expected to persist over the coming days. Protests, which are banned under the Communist Party of Cuba’s (PCC) one party regime, started […]
Americas: Oil majors reportedly mulling to launch offshore oil exploration in Colombia by 2022 Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: business and economic risks; unrest-related violence In Colombia, the government aims to accelerate offshore oil exploration and development to reverse a recent plunge in output from traditional onshore fields. On 29 June Energy Minister Diego […]
Americas: Chile’s Constituent Assembly to start drafting new constitution on 4 July Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; protests; political violence In Chile, the Constituent Assembly (CA) tasked with drafting a new constitution is scheduled to hold its first session on 4 July. The CA, whose 155 members were elected in mid-May, will […]
Ones to Watch Americas: Protests against Bolsonaro’s COVID-19 response expected to persist across Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability; policy-making In Brazil, protests against President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to continue to regularly occur. On 19 June thousands took to the streets in Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro, […]
Americas: Pedro Castillo expected to win Peru’s presidential runoff, pending results Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; governability; economic risks; policy continuity; civil unrest In Peru, far-left presidential frontrunner Pedro Castillo is expected to be declared the winner of the 6 June presidential runoff in the coming days. His conservative opponent, Keiko Fujimori, has so […]
Americas: Crackdown on Nicaraguan opposition to further intensify ahead of November vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; arbitrary detentions; crackdown on political opposition; civil unrest In Nicaragua, an ongoing government-led crackdown on the opposition is set to continue to intensify ahead of the 7 November general elections. On 5 June opposition presidential hopeful Arturo […]
Americas: Highly contested presidential runoff in Peru; crucial midterm elections in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; economic risks; policy continuity; election-related violence Peru’s highly contested presidential runoff and Mexico’s crucial midterm legislative and local elections are scheduled to take place on 6 June. Recent polls indicate that Peru’s far-left presidential candidate Pedro Castillo – […]
Americas: Conservative Guillermo Lasso takes office in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; economic risks; policy continuity; civil In Ecuador, conservative Guillermo Lasso of the centre-right CREO party is scheduled to take office as the country’s president on 24 May after securing a surprise win in April’s presidential runoff against leftist candidate Andres Arauz. Lasso, […]
Americas: Venezuela’s Maduro and Guaido mull fresh talks; meaningful results to remain elusive Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, efforts to re-launch negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition will continue to face significant challenges. On 11 May opposition leader Juan Guaido – recognised by the US and […]
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