Ones to Watch, 6 May 2025

Americas: Government suspends gold mining, imposes curfew in Peru after 13 miners killed Sectors: all; mining Key Risks: targeted attacks; business risks; business disruptions; kidnapping In Peru, on 5 May President Dina Boluarte’s government suspended mining in Pataz district, La Libertad region, for 30 days and imposed a 12-hour curfew from 18:00 to 6:00 local […]
Brazil: Irreconciliation of agrobusiness and indigenous land claims

Date first published: 24/04/2025 Key sectors: agriculture; mining; forestry Key risks: civil unrest; supply chain disruption; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development Between 26 March and 8 April indigenous protests in the Amazon rainforest, Para state, led to a disruption of soybean shipments via the Miritituba river port, halting 70,000 tonnes of grain per day […]
Ones to Watch, 28 April 2025

Americas: Six soldiers killed in Colombia amid a spate of attacks against security forces Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; violent clashes In Colombia, on 27 April six soldiers were killed following an attack from the ‘Jorge Briceno’ front of the General Staff of the Blocs and Fronts (EMBF) factions of the EMC – the […]
Iraq: Blurring lines of authority

Date first published: 22/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional war; disarmament Risk development On 7 April reports emerged that several Iran-backed Shi’ah militias were considering disarmament following United States (US) warnings to the Iraqi government that failure to dismantle could lead to targeted airstrikes. Militias reportedly received tacit approval from Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]
Ones to Watch, 22 April 2025

Americas: Argentina’s ATE public sector union to protest against wage agreement on 23 April Sectors: all Key Risks: industrial action In Argentina, on 15 April the public sector union, the State Workers Association (ATE), announced a day of protests scheduled for 23 April in Buenos Aires to reject the collective bargaining agreement. The ATE denounced […]
Brazil-Paraguay: Itaipu spying scandal strains relations

Date first published: 15/04/2025 Key sectors: energy; infrastructure Key risks: business risks; economic risks; frustration of process; regulatory changes Risk development On 1 April Paraguay suspended negotiations with Brazil over the Itaipu Dam after it was revealed that Brazil’s intelligence agency (Abin) had spied on Paraguayan officials. The cyber espionage operation, carried out under former president Jair […]
Ones to Watch, 14 April 2025

Americas: Thousands of teachers march to demand new labour agreement in Guatemala Sectors: all; transport Key Risks: industrial action; cargo transport In Guatemala, on 10 April thousands of teachers led by the Guatemalan Education Workers Union (STEG) demonstrated in the capital Guatemala City to demand a new labour agreement. The STEG stated that the Education […]
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Battle of institutions

Date first published: 08/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political impasse; separatism; civil war Risk development On 27 March Bosnia and Herzegovina issued an international arrest warrant for Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik and the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS, Nenad Stevandic, after they left the country despite a national […]
Ones to Watch, 7 April 2025

Americas: Indigenous protests disrupt Amazon soy shipping route in Brazil Sectors: all; shipping Key Risks: economic risks; business risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruption; cargo transport In Brazil, on 26 March indigenous Munduruku people launched a protest, including a partial blockade of the Transamazonian highway near the Miritituba river port in the Amazon rainforest, Para […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro on Trial

Date first published: 27/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; political stability; civil unrest; political violence; governability Risk development On 26 March a five-judge Supreme Court panel unanimously ruled that former president Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 election and stage a coup against President Luiz Inacio Lula […]
Ones to Watch, 31 March 2025

Americas: Argentina’s CGT to strike against President Milei’s austerity measures on 10 April Sectors: all; energy; hospitality; transport; financial Key Risks: business disruptions; supply chain disruption; industrial action In Argentina, on 20 March the country’s largest workers union, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), announced a general 24-hour strike against President Javier Milei’s austerity measures […]
United States – Yemen: Strikes, Drones and Déjà Vu in the Red Sea

Date first published: 25/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war at sea; regional escalation; targeted attacks; trade disruptions Risk development On 15 March the United States (US) launched extensive air and naval strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen. Over 47 strikes, conducted by fighter jets from the USS Harry Truman and US drones, targeted logistical […]