Americas: ELN armed attacks against security forces likely to escalate in northeast Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; targeted attacks; terrorism In Colombia, on 20 February the mayor of Cucuta, Norte de Santander department, imposed a 48-hour curfew – starting 19:00 local time – after the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group attacked police […]
Date first published: 20/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: arbitrary arrests; partisan attacks; political polarisation Risk development As of 20 February, an estimated 5,500 people have been arrested as part of the government’s Operation Devil Hunt, with over 500 taking place within the past 24 hours. The operation, launched to re-establish order as civil unrest […]
Americas: Protests erupt against Tia Maria copper mine project in Peru Sectors: all; mining; transportation Key Risks: supply chain disruptions; business disruptions; civil unrest; violent clashes; In Peru, on 17 February residents of the Valle del Tambo in Islay province, Arequipa region, launched protests against the Southern Cooper Corporation’s US$41.8bln Tia Maria copper mine project. […]
Date first published: 18/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; political polarisation Risk development On 8 February a new government was formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, following the 10 January election of President Joseph Aoun, filling a two-year leadership vacuum. The new government, pending parliamentary approval, pledges to reform the country’s sectarian […]
Americas: Protests against pension reform likely to intensify in Panama in coming weeks Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business disruptions; vandalism In Panama, on 12 February a protest against the proposed pension reform bill by the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) led to violent confrontations with the riot police in the capital […]
Date first published: 12/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 20 January, Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked markets when it released DeepSeek-R1 and a paper detailing that training DeepSeek-V3 required less than US$6m worth of computing power from low-powered Nvidia H800 chips. The emergence of the low-cost […]
Americas: Private sector set to strike on 10 February in Bolivia Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruptions In Bolivia, on 10 February business unions and export associations are set to stage a nationwide 24-hour strike to protest President Luis Arce’s government’s refusal to repeal Article 7 of the 2025 General […]
Date first published: 04/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: insurgency; war-on-land; regional tensions Risk development On 27 January Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, marking the most serious escalation in the ongoing war since it resumed in 2022. At least 778 people have been killed and 2,880 others […]
Americas: Ecuador gears up for high-stakes presidential and legislative elections on 9 February Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence In Ecuador, on 9 February voters will head to the polls for legislative and presidential elections. While voters will have a choice of 16 presidential hopefuls, the voter intention polls suggest the presidential election will be […]
Date first published: 23/01/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regional stability Risk development On 19 January a ceasefire agreement came into effect following 15 months of an incessant war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The truce – mediated by the United States (US), Qatar and Egypt – is to be implemented in three […]
Americas: The ELN guerilla pledges to continue the “war of liberation” in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; regional conflict In Colombia, on 24 January the ELN announced it would continue its “war of liberation” in Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander department, claiming that the dozens of captured members from the 33rd Front of […]
Date first published: 09/01/2025 Key sectors: all; tourism Key risks: insecurity; gang-related violence; violent crime; economic risk Risk development On 30 December 2024 Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) amid a surge in gang-related violence. The move followed a series of homicides over the weekend of 28-29 December. On 28 […]
