Date first published: 23/01/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regional stability Risk development On 19 January a ceasefire agreement came into effect following 15 months of an incessant war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The truce – mediated by the United States (US), Qatar and Egypt – is to be implemented in three […]
Americas: The ELN guerilla pledges to continue the “war of liberation” in Colombia Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; regional conflict In Colombia, on 24 January the ELN announced it would continue its “war of liberation” in Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander department, claiming that the dozens of captured members from the 33rd Front of […]
Date first published: 09/01/2025 Key sectors: all; tourism Key risks: insecurity; gang-related violence; violent crime; economic risk Risk development On 30 December 2024 Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) amid a surge in gang-related violence. The move followed a series of homicides over the weekend of 28-29 December. On 28 […]
Date first published: 16/01/2025 Key sectors: all; maritime shipping Key risks: geopolitical conflict; supply chain disruption Risk development On 26 December 2024 President Jose Raul Mulino rejected the possibility of reducing tolls for US vessels or ceding control of the Panama Canal after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to take the canal back into US […]
Americas: Heightened civil unrest risks ahead of protesters’ deadline for government in Bolivia Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest In Bolivia, on 16 January supporters of former president Evo Morales suspended protests in the capital La Paz after delivering a letter to President Luis Arce, demanding action on the economic crisis and an end to […]
Americas: Mayor killed amid rising political violence ahead of 5 February elections in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; political instability; gang-related violence In Ecuador, on 11 January the Mayor of Arenillas, Eber Ponce, was shot five times by a gunman on a motorbike while driving his pickup truck in El Oro province. He […]
Date first published: 7/1/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; regime change Risk Development On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population […]
Americas: Opposition leader Machado calls for nationwide anti-government protests in Venezuela Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; traffic disruption In Venezuela, on 5 January opposition leader Maria Corina Machado urged supporters to demonstrate nationwide on 9 January to oust President Nicolas Maduro ahead of his 10 January inauguration for a third term. This came hours […]
Date first published: 31/12/2024 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: geopolitical tensions; defence spending Risk development Donald Trump’s looming return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 has sparked concern across NATO member states. Trump’s first presidency from 2017–2021 was marked by his criticism of NATO as “obsolete,” demands for increased European defence spending, […]
Americas: Protest against US sanctions ahead of Trump’s incoming administration in Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; bilateral tensions; civil unrest In Cuba, on 20 December thousands protested in front of the US embassy in the capital Havana over long-standing US sanctions on the country. The protest – led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel and […]
Date first published: 12/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; polarisation; civil unrest; governance risks Risk development On 3 December President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, announcing that the country and its government had been “paralysed by pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. The declaration banned demonstrations and all political activities, including those of the National Assembly […]
Americas: Protests against pension reform ahead of National Assembly debate in Panama Sectors: all Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; vandalism In Panama, on 17 December labour unions and the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) are likely to stage protests and road blocks against the proposed pension reform bill in the capital Panama City. SUNTRACS […]
