Ones to Watch, 1 April 2019

Americas: Venezuela to face heightened tensions, risk of escalation      Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; military intervention; sanctions; arbitrary arrests; civil unrest In Venezuela, tensions are expected to continue to heighten as discontent over persistent massive nationwide blackouts and water shortages add weight to the ongoing unprecedented crisis. Moreover, the recent arrival of...

Russia-Turkey: Dangerous liaisons

Date first published: 26/3/2019 Key sectors: defence; energy Key risks: sanctions In 2017 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed a US$2.5bln purchase Russia’s S-400 missile defence. The long-range anti-aircraft missile system is capable of destroying medium range cruise and ballistic weapons as well as on-ground targets. Turkey aims to deploy the system by October 2019...

Ones to Watch, 25 March 2019

Americas: US pressure on Havana intensifies as lawsuits against Cuban entities allowed Sectors: all Key Risks: business disruption; diplomatic fallout; confiscation Recent US measures are set to increase bilateral tension with Cuba. On 19 March a so far never used Cuban embargo measure – Title III rule of the Helms-Burton Act – took effect....

Peru: Political violence and operational disruption

Date first published: 14/3/2019 Key sectors: mining; hydrocarbon; commercial; cargo transport Key risks: disruptive strikes; business interruption; civil unrest Peru is a consolidated example of the pervasive effects brought about by the links between political violence and operational disruption. The mining and hydrocarbon sectors continue to demonstrate that one can cause the other, and vice...

Ones to Watch, 18 March 2019

Americas: Guyana to miss snap election deadline, constitutional crisis looms Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; governability In Guyana, the 21 March deadline to hold snap elections is fast approaching. The vote will not take place, heightening the risk of a constitutional crisis. On 21 December 2018 opposition leader Bharrat Jagdeo and his People’s...