Date first published: 20/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional tensions; civil war; economic risks; business risks Risk development On 9 January reports indicated that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) was close to signing a US$1.5bln arms deal with Pakistan. The deal included the purchase of 10 Karakoram-8 light attack aircraft, 200 drones and advanced […]
Date first published: 13/01/2026 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; governability; economic risks; regional escalation; regional conflict Risk development Early on 3 January United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration launched an overnight military operation in Caracas and surrounding states, with US Special Forces capturing president Nicolas Maduro and his […]
Date first published: 06/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; business risks; political stability Risk development On 27 December 2025 Senegal announced it had raised CFA560bln (US$1bln) on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) securities market in its fourth and final bond sale of 2025. Exceeding its CFA400bln target, the sale was […]
Date first published: 23/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; governability; policy continuity; civil unrest Risk development On 14 December far-right Republican Party candidate Jose Antonio Kast won the presidential election with 58 per cent of the vote, defeating Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara’s 42 per cent. Kast capitalised on public discontent over escalating crime, immigration […]
Date first published: 23/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: targeted attacks; political polarisation; terrorism Risk development On 14 December at least 16 people, including one assailant, were killed, and 42 others were injured during a shooting attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney, New South Wales state. Bomb disposal experts stated that three IEDs had also been thrown but failed to detonate. Police stated that the […]
Date first published: 11/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; institutional weakness; civil unrest; governability; corruption Risk development On 10 December the Standing Committee of Congress announced it would not validate the results of the 30 November presidential election due to “pressures” from internal organised crime structures and interference from US President Donald Trump, […]
Date first published: 09/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: cargo transport; business risks; trade disruptions; war at sea Risk development On 30 November Tehran and Ankara reached an agreement to build a US$1.6bln, 200 km rail link – referred to in Iran as the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya railway transit line – connecting Iran’s rail network with Turkey’s. […]
Date first published: 27/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict; policy uncertainty; economic risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; trade friction Risk development On 26 November, Beijing’s spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Peng Qingen, issued a sharp warning declaring that China would “crush any foreign interference” over Taiwan and […]
Date first published: 25/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 18 November reports emerged that the United States (US) had drafted a 28-point plan in secret October talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. US officials claimed the proposal – requiring Ukraine to cede parts of Donetsk Oblast it still […]
Date first published: 18/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; political polarisation Risk development On 17 November former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was tried in absentia, found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death for her role in the violent crackdown on demonstrations on 18 July 2024, which left over […]
Date first published: 11/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political stability Risk development On 10 November authorities issued warrants for the arrest of 10 senior opposition figures, including the CHADEMA party’s secretary general, spokesperson and members of its central committee. This followed the 9 November arrest of the party’s deputy secretary […]
Date first published: 4/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: sanctions; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development On 22 October the United States (US) Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, in a sharp reversal of US policy amid President Donald Trump’s frustration with Russia’s stalling of peace […]
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