Date first published: 17/02/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; insurgency; regional conflict; war on land Risk development On 7 February in a letter addressed to the Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh Mohammed, his Ethiopian counterpart Gedion Timothewos accused Asmara of illegally encroaching on Ethiopian territory. He described the development as “outright aggression” and […]
Date first published: 05/02/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; business risks; frustration of process Risk development On 29 January Saudi Arabia unveiled a new National Privatisation Strategy aimed at significantly expanding the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in developing, operating and managing gigaprojects, in line with the goals of Vision 2030. The strategy […]
Date first published: 29/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political violence; political stability Risk development On 22 January Chief of Defence and son of President Yoweri Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, claimed that 30 people were killed and 2,000 were arrested around the 15 January election period. Kainerugaba’s inflammatory posts on X (formerly Twitter) […]
Date first published: 27/01/2026 Key sectors: all; defence; mining Key risks: geopolitical tensions; regional conflict; economic risks; business risks; trade friction Risk development On 21 January US President Donald Trump backed down from his threat of tariffs on European countries, ruled out the use of military force and signalled that a ‘framework’ deal was reached […]
Date first published: 20/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional tensions; civil war; economic risks; business risks Risk development On 9 January reports indicated that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) was close to signing a US$1.5bln arms deal with Pakistan. The deal included the purchase of 10 Karakoram-8 light attack aircraft, 200 drones and advanced […]
Date first published: 13/01/2026 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; governability; economic risks; regional escalation; regional conflict Risk development Early on 3 January United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration launched an overnight military operation in Caracas and surrounding states, with US Special Forces capturing president Nicolas Maduro and his […]
Date first published: 06/01/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; business risks; political stability Risk development On 27 December 2025 Senegal announced it had raised CFA560bln (US$1bln) on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) securities market in its fourth and final bond sale of 2025. Exceeding its CFA400bln target, the sale was […]
Date first published: 23/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; governability; policy continuity; civil unrest Risk development On 14 December far-right Republican Party candidate Jose Antonio Kast won the presidential election with 58 per cent of the vote, defeating Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara’s 42 per cent. Kast capitalised on public discontent over escalating crime, immigration […]
Date first published: 23/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: targeted attacks; political polarisation; terrorism Risk development On 14 December at least 16 people, including one assailant, were killed, and 42 others were injured during a shooting attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney, New South Wales state. Bomb disposal experts stated that three IEDs had also been thrown but failed to detonate. Police stated that the […]
Date first published: 11/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; institutional weakness; civil unrest; governability; corruption Risk development On 10 December the Standing Committee of Congress announced it would not validate the results of the 30 November presidential election due to “pressures” from internal organised crime structures and interference from US President Donald Trump, […]
Date first published: 09/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: cargo transport; business risks; trade disruptions; war at sea Risk development On 30 November Tehran and Ankara reached an agreement to build a US$1.6bln, 200 km rail link – referred to in Iran as the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya railway transit line – connecting Iran’s rail network with Turkey’s. […]
Date first published: 27/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict; policy uncertainty; economic risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; trade friction Risk development On 26 November, Beijing’s spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Peng Qingen, issued a sharp warning declaring that China would “crush any foreign interference” over Taiwan and […]
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