Date first published: 19/05/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability, political impasse, government instability Risk development Makerfield is an unremarkable post-industrial constituency on the western edge of Greater Manchester. It is an unlikely setting for a contest that may determine the future of the Labour Party and the next occupant of Downing Street. On 14 May […]
Date first published: 07/05/2026 Key sectors: political Key risks: political stability; governance; political polarisation; economic risks; business risks; tribal violence; sanctions Risk development On 27 April Iraq’s President Nizar Amedi, who was elected on 11 April, nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate following months of political deadlock within the Shi’ah Coordination Framework (CF). The […]
Date first published: 23/04/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governance; policy uncertainty; economic risks Risk development On 20 April former president Rumen Radev’s newly formed centre-left Progressive Bulgaria (PB) party won a landslide victory in the 19 April snap parliamentary election with 44.7 per cent of the vote and 135 seats, securing an […]
Date first published: 21/04/2026 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: supply chain disruptions; inflation, oil shortages Risk development On 28 February, the United States (US) and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting supply disruption is the largest […]
Date first published: 14/042026 Key sectors: defence and security; energy; infrastructure Key risks: civil war; political impasse Risk development On 1 April satellite imagery revealed that at least three Chinese and Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), alongside ground control systems, had been deployed at Al Khadim Air Base near Benghazi between April and December 2025, […]
Date first published: 31/03/2026 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: economic; fiscal stability; civil unrest Risk development On 30 March the pump price of petrol in the country rose roughly 67 per cent from NGN900 (US$0.65) to NGN1,400 (US$1.01) per litre since the start of the Middle East war. This followed a 23 March announcement […]
Date first published: 26/03/2026 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: civil unrest; political uncertainty; economic risks; sanctions Risk development On 14 March protests against blackouts and food shortages in Moron, Ciego de Avila province, turned violent when protesters vandalised the Communist Party office and other state-run establishments in the area – including a […]
Date first published: 24/03/2026 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: corruption; gang violence; political uncertainty; business disruption Risk development On 18-19 March the South African Police Services (SAPS) and the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) conducted an operational scanning exercise for hotspots in criminal activity in Cape Town, Western Cape province, ahead of a […]
Date first published: 12/03/2026 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: policy uncertainty; regulatory changes; governability; governance; business risks; business disruptions Risk development On 10 January Petronas – the country’s national oil company – filed a legal suit in Malaysia’s Federal Court over hydrocarbon resource ownership in Sarawak state – a resource-rich state on the […]
Date first published: 05/03/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: gang violence; violent clashes; disruptive unrest; business disruptions; targeted attacks Risk development On 22 February Nemesio Oseguera, alias “El Mencho”, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), died in custody after being injured in a United States (US)-assisted military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco state. The […]
Date first published: 04/03/2026 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; targeted attacks Risk development 24 February marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year of intensive negotiations led by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration have brought the two sides incrementally closer to a settlement, but key sticking points persist, […]
Date first published: 24/02/2026 Key sectors: defence and security; energy; logisticsKey risks: tribal violence; targeted attacks; violent clashes; governability; economic risks; supply chain disruption Risk development On 14 February Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar ordered a restructuring of southern formations following clashes involving ethnic Tebu fighters across Fezzan province. The move […]
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