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Venezuela: Pragmatism trumps geopolitics

Date first published: 16/06/2022 Key sectors: all; oil and gas Key risks: political stability; sanctions   Risk development On 10 June state-owned oil company PDVSA stated that the Greek-flagged Aframax Minerva Zoe oil tanker chartered by Italian oil firm Eni had arrived in Venezuelan waters to carry 650,000 barrels of diluted crude oil bound for […]

United Kingdom: What’s next for Boris?

Date first published: 14/06/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: leadership change; populist policy; trade disputes   Risk development On 6 June Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson faced a vote of confidence from members of his own Conservative Party. Johnson managed to survive but won the support of only 211 MPs – 59 per cent of […]

Worldwide: The monkeypox outbreak

Date first published: 07/06/2022 Key sectors: healthcare Key risks: pandemics Risk Development In early May 2022, UK authorities confirmed the first registered case of monkeypox – a viral disease with some similarities to smallpox. Over the next month cases were reported across Europe, as well as in the Americas, North Africa and Australia. By 4 June a total […]

Poland: Geopolitics vindicated

Date first published: 31/05/2022 Key sectors: energy; oil and gas Key risks: business risks; trade; sanctions; energy security   Risk development On 27 April Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom cut natural gas deliveries to Poland over its refusal to comply with a new rouble payment mechanism – demanded by Moscow since 1 April, in breach […]

Pakistan: The challenges facing the new government

Date first published: 19/05/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: default; currency collapse; government change   Risk development On 10 April, Imran Khan was removed from the position of prime minister following a controversial no-confidence vote. Into his place stepped Shehbaz Sharif, the head of the PML-N, and the brother of ousted former prime minister Nawaz […]

Libya: Oil disruption

Date first published: 12/05/2022 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: economic risks; business risks; civil unrest   Risk development On 10 May the Tobruk-based administration of Fathi Bashagha suggested that the country’s oil fields, many of which were closed due to blockades by armed militias and demonstrators, may resume operations following negotiations with militias […]

Mexico: Public vs. private

Date first published: 05/05/2022 Key sectors: all; electricity; mining; oil and gas Key risks: regulatory changes; contract frustration; nationalisation   Risk development On 17 April President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) flagship and controversial plan to reform the electricity market failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed in the lower house of Congress to become […]

Pakistan: Security threats to CPEC

Date first published: 03/05/2022 Key sectors: infrastructure Key risks: terrorism; border conflicts   Risk development Since 2013, China has been investing heavily in Pakistan. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has included the construction of the Gwadar Port in Balochistan, a network of highways and railways, and over US$30bln in energy infrastructure. CPEC could help accelerate […]

France: Five more years in the Elysee

Date first published: 26/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; civil unrest; government debt   Risk development On 24 April President Emmanuel Macron secured five more years in the Elysee after defeating his far right rival Marine Le Pen in the presidential run-off. Macron won 58.5 per cent of the vote compared to 41.5 […]

Sri Lanka: Rock bottom

Date first published: 14/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: economic risks; political stability; civil unrest   Risk development On 13 April the Ministry of Finance suspended all payments on external debt in order to pay for essential goods amid a deepening economic crisis. The statement, which was a complete contrast to the January assurance that […]

Ethiopia: Potential peace surfaces

Date first published: 07/04/2022 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; business disruption; supply-chain risks; war on land Risk development  On 25 March the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party-turned rebel group, agreed to the federal government’s ‘cessation of hostilities’ to allow humanitarian aid into northern Tigray region, a day after Prime Minister […]

Indonesia: A conflict renewed in Papua

Date first published: 31/03/2022 Key sectors: all; infrastructure Key risks: internal conflict; protests; business risks   Risk development At least ten separatist attacks were recorded in Papua province in the month of March, including the killing of eight civilian technicians during an attack on the Telkomsel tower in Beoga, Puncak district on 2 March. These […]

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