Date first published: 02/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 25 October General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup in the capital Khartoum in which Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers were arrested, the military-civilian Sovereign Council government was dissolved and a state of […]
Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Date: 07/10/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: volatility; supply chain disruptions; social discontent Risk development Over the last month, householders and factories across at least 19 Chinese provinces experienced some form of power curbs and power rationing. In some parts of the country, large manufacturers and power consumers had their power disconnected entirely for […]
Date first published: 30/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; business; economy Risk Development The German federal elections held on 26 September produced a fragmented Bundestag. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) secured a narrow victory with 25.7 per cent, defeating the ruling CDU/CSU conservative bloc which attained a historic low of […]
Date first published: 28/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; border conflicts Risk development For the first time in decades, inflation is a risk to the global economic outlook. Inflation in the G-20 is forecast to increase to 3.7 per cent this year, increasing to 3.9 per cent in 2022. By historical standards, inflation […]
Date first published: 21/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks:terrorism Risk development The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has raised fears of a revival of Islamist terrorism across Southeast Asia. These fears appear to be justified. On 20 August, Indonesian police announced they had foiled an unspecified terrorist attack due to occur on 17 August, the country’s […]
Date first published: 14/09/2021 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest Risk development On 5 September President Alpha Conde was detained by members of the country’s special forces led by Colonel MamadyDoumbouya after an exchange of heavy gunfire outside the Presidential Palace in the capital Conakry. Doumbouya’s newly established […]
Date first published: 02/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; economic Risk development On 17-19 September, Russia will hold elections for the State Duma, its main legislative chamber. The election will be the least free since President Vladimir Putin’s first election in 2000. State oppression against political opposition, activism and independent media […]
Date first published: 31/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; default hyperinflation; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 23 August the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that their global allocation of US$650bln special drawing rights (SDRs) came into effect. On 25 August the Central Bank of Yemen based in Aden confirmed their […]
Date first published: 24/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political violence; terrorism; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 15 August, Taliban militants entered Kabul, overrunning the presidential palace 20 years after the United States (US)-led coalition ousted the group in 2001. The move came after rapid Taliban territorial gains which […]
Date first published: 17/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty Risk Development Ahead of the general election that must be held by the end of October, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has recorded its lowest approval rate between the months of June and August. No Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-led government has survived with an […]
