Date first published: 23/12/21 Key sectors: all Key risks: COVID-19; inflation; debt Risk development In a baseline case a continued recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could lead global growth to expand by more than 4.5 per cent in 2022 – down from 2021 – but still ahead of 2019. There were hopes that by the end of 2022 that the global economy would have […]
Date first published: 16/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development The much-delayed Legislative Councils (LegCo) election is set to take place on 19 December, marking the first major election since the Chinese and local governments implemented a series of electoral changes that drastically remade Hong Kong’s political system. The […]
Date first published: 13/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political instability; sanctions; trade Risk development In the first week of November, Ukraine and United States (US) officials warned of a Russian military build-up near its border with Ukraine after it amassed a force of up to 100,000 troops in the area. The build-up […]
Date first published: 02/12/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; political stability; regulatory changes Risk development Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won the presidency and is set to end 12 years of centre-right Partido Nacional de Honduras (PNH) rule. Although the official results are still to be announced, two days after the 28 […]
Date first published: 30/11/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas; all Key risks: political violence; war on land; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 16 November Libyan National Army warlord Khalifa Haftar announced plans to run in Libya’s upcoming 24 December presidential elections. This followed a similar announcement on 14 November by Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, […]
Date first published: 18/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; government intervention Risk development The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), also known as the ‘Sixth Plenum’, ended on 11 November, adopting a ‘historical resolution’ that sets up President Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2022 […]
Date first published: 11/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political violence; political instability Risk development On 2 November Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a state of emergency following the advancement of the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) further southward in Amhara region, capturing the towns of Dessie, […]
Date first published: 09/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability Risk development Thousands of Georgians, spearheaded by the United Nation Movement (UNM), have joined protests in the last week, both against the 31 October mayoral elections and the imprisonment of former president and an opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili. They alleged that the elections […]
Date first published: 02/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 25 October General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup in the capital Khartoum in which Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers were arrested, the military-civilian Sovereign Council government was dissolved and a state of […]
Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Date: 07/10/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: volatility; supply chain disruptions; social discontent Risk development Over the last month, householders and factories across at least 19 Chinese provinces experienced some form of power curbs and power rationing. In some parts of the country, large manufacturers and power consumers had their power disconnected entirely for […]
