Date first published: 30/11/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas; all Key risks: political violence; war on land; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 16 November Libyan National Army warlord Khalifa Haftar announced plans to run in Libya’s upcoming 24 December presidential elections. This followed a similar announcement on 14 November by Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, […]
Date first published: 18/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty; government intervention Risk development The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), also known as the ‘Sixth Plenum’, ended on 11 November, adopting a ‘historical resolution’ that sets up President Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2022 […]
Date first published: 11/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: internal conflict; political violence; political instability Risk development On 2 November Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a state of emergency following the advancement of the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) further southward in Amhara region, capturing the towns of Dessie, […]
Date first published: 09/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability Risk development Thousands of Georgians, spearheaded by the United Nation Movement (UNM), have joined protests in the last week, both against the 31 October mayoral elections and the imprisonment of former president and an opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili. They alleged that the elections […]
Date first published: 02/11/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 25 October General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup in the capital Khartoum in which Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers were arrested, the military-civilian Sovereign Council government was dissolved and a state of […]
Date first published: 26/10/2021 Key sectors:all; oil and gas; cargo transport Key risks:civil unrest; business disruption; interruption Risk development Several recent incidents of disruptive unrest have proven to be stark reminders of the high potential for such events to inflict a significant negative economic impact on key sectors. In October labour grievances and opposition […]
Date first published: 19/10/2021 Key sectors: finance Key risks: bank runs, monetary policy Risk development 81 countries representing over 90 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) are either researching or looking to launch their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 15 countries, including China, South Korea, and Sweden are running pilot CBDC […]
Date: 07/10/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: volatility; supply chain disruptions; social discontent Risk development Over the last month, householders and factories across at least 19 Chinese provinces experienced some form of power curbs and power rationing. In some parts of the country, large manufacturers and power consumers had their power disconnected entirely for […]
Date first published: 30/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy uncertainty; business; economy Risk Development The German federal elections held on 26 September produced a fragmented Bundestag. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) secured a narrow victory with 25.7 per cent, defeating the ruling CDU/CSU conservative bloc which attained a historic low of […]
Date first published: 28/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; border conflicts Risk development For the first time in decades, inflation is a risk to the global economic outlook. Inflation in the G-20 is forecast to increase to 3.7 per cent this year, increasing to 3.9 per cent in 2022. By historical standards, inflation […]
Date first published: 21/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks:terrorism Risk development The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has raised fears of a revival of Islamist terrorism across Southeast Asia. These fears appear to be justified. On 20 August, Indonesian police announced they had foiled an unspecified terrorist attack due to occur on 17 August, the country’s […]
Date first published: 14/09/2021 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest Risk development On 5 September President Alpha Conde was detained by members of the country’s special forces led by Colonel MamadyDoumbouya after an exchange of heavy gunfire outside the Presidential Palace in the capital Conakry. Doumbouya’s newly established […]
