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Russia: A different election

Date first published: 02/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; economic   Risk development On 17-19 September, Russia will hold elections for the State Duma, its main legislative chamber. The election will be the least free since President Vladimir Putin’s first election in 2000. State oppression against political opposition, activism and independent media […]

Yemen: Division of assets

Date first published: 31/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; default hyperinflation; business disruption; sanctions   Risk development On 23 August the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that their global allocation of US$650bln special drawing rights (SDRs) came into effect. On 25 August the Central Bank of Yemen based in Aden confirmed their […]

Afghanistan: Taliban 2.0?

Date first published: 24/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political violence; terrorism; political instability; policy uncertainty   Risk development On 15 August, Taliban militants entered Kabul, overrunning the presidential palace 20 years after the United States (US)-led coalition ousted the group in 2001. The move came after rapid Taliban territorial gains which […]

Japan: Suga’s post-Olympics reckoning

Date first published: 17/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: policy uncertainty   Risk Development Ahead of the general election that must be held by the end of October, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has recorded its lowest approval rate between the months of June and August. No Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-led government has survived with an […]

Afghanistan: The threat to Central Asia

Date first published: 10/8/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: border clashes; terrorism; humanitarian crisis   Risk development Taliban militants have made significant territorial gains since 1 May 2021, the initial date for the withdrawal of international troops as agreed under the United States (US)-Taliban deal of February 2020. Many of these gains have occurred in […]

Russia-Germany-US: Once a pipedream, now a reality

Date first published: 29/7/2021 Key sectors: oil and gas Key risks: sanctions; policy uncertainty; economic   Risk development On 21 July Berlin and Washington signed an agreement to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2), the highly controversial gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany worth US$9.5bln. Nord Stream 2 AG, wholly owned by […]

Haiti: From bad to worse

Date first published: 22/07/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; violent unrest; deadly clashes; crime; kidnap and ransom   Risk development President Jovenel Moise was shot dead in his private residence on 7 July. Just over two weeks after the assassination, the exact details on the perpetrators, including their motives, remain to be confirmed. […]