Date first published: 11/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; institutional weakness; civil unrest; governability; corruption Risk development On 10 December the Standing Committee of Congress announced it would not validate the results of the 30 November presidential election due to “pressures” from internal organised crime structures and interference from US President Donald Trump, […]
Date first published: 09/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: cargo transport; business risks; trade disruptions; war at sea Risk development On 30 November Tehran and Ankara reached an agreement to build a US$1.6bln, 200 km rail link – referred to in Iran as the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya railway transit line – connecting Iran’s rail network with Turkey’s. […]
Date first published: 27/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict; policy uncertainty; economic risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; trade friction Risk development On 26 November, Beijing’s spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Peng Qingen, issued a sharp warning declaring that China would “crush any foreign interference” over Taiwan and […]
Date first published: 25/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 18 November reports emerged that the United States (US) had drafted a 28-point plan in secret October talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. US officials claimed the proposal – requiring Ukraine to cede parts of Donetsk Oblast it still […]
Date first published: 18/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; political polarisation Risk development On 17 November former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was tried in absentia, found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death for her role in the violent crackdown on demonstrations on 18 July 2024, which left over […]
Date first published: 11/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political stability Risk development On 10 November authorities issued warrants for the arrest of 10 senior opposition figures, including the CHADEMA party’s secretary general, spokesperson and members of its central committee. This followed the 9 November arrest of the party’s deputy secretary […]
Date first published: 4/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: sanctions; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development On 22 October the United States (US) Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, in a sharp reversal of US policy amid President Donald Trump’s frustration with Russia’s stalling of peace […]
Date first published: 23/10/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political violence; civil unrest; separatism; terrorism; targeted attacks; regional escalation; regional conflict Risk development On 11 October reports emerged that pressure mounted on the Polisario Front (PF) as UN and African bodies stepped up accusations of the group’s ties to Sahel-based extremist networks. The […]
Date first published: 21/10/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; economic risks; trade frictions; supply chain disruption Risk development On 10 October United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that he would impose an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and introduce export controls on all critical US-made software, starting on 1 November. The […]
Date first published: 02/10/2025 Key sectors: media; all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political stability Risk development On 3 October at least eight people were arrested as approximately 2,000 people, including former president Ibrahim Solih, marched against government corruption and curtailing of media freedoms in the capital, Male. Police deployed the use of riot […]
Date first published: 02/10/2025 Key sectors: energy; political; fiscal stability; investment Key risks: political stability; economic risks; business risks Risk development On 27 September oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) resumed through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline after a two-and-a-half-year suspension. The restart followed a 22 September agreement between Baghdad, the Kurdistan regional Government […]
Date first published: 30/09/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; civil unrest Risk development On 28 September the pro-European Party of Action of Solidarity (PAS) of President Maia Sandu won the parliamentary elections, securing a comfortable majority of 55 seats in the 101-seat parliament. The pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc (BEP) came second with 24.2 per […]
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