Guinea: Put up or pack up

Date first published: 10/06/2025 Key sectors: mining Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; frustration of process Risk development On 29 May the government cancelled 129 mineral exploration permits, primarily focused on the gold, diamond and bauxite mining sectors. The stated reason was to facilitate a switch to a digitised system to reportedly optimise the licensing […]
EU–Iran–UK: Tehran’s criminal proxies

Date first published: 29/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; gang violence; targeted attacks Risk development On 4 May eight people – including seven Iranian nationals – were arrested in the United Kingdom (UK) during major counter-terrorism operations on suspicion of plotting “terrorist” acts and posing a threat to national security. On 17 May […]
Peru: Mining sector in the crosshairs

Date first published: 22/05/2025 Key sectors: mining; cargo transport Key risks: targeted attacks; civil unrest; kidnapping; business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 5 May President Dina Boluarte suspended all mining activity in Pataz province, La Libertad region, for 30 days after the bodies of 13 gold mine workers from local firm R&R […]
Maldives: A different type of resort

Date first published: 15/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; economic risks; corruption Risk development On 5 May Male, in partnership with the United Arab Emirates-based MBS Global Investments, announced the development of Maldives International Financial Centre (MIFC) – a US$8.8bln project, aimed at establishing a fully sustainable Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Male, to attract […]
Nigeria: Bandits to the left, insurgents to the right

Date first published: 08/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; communal violence; banditry Risk development Between 4 and 20 April multiple-casualty attacks occurred in the country’s North-East, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones. Over 110 people were killed in two attacks by Fulani militias in Plateau state on 4 and 14 April. On 19 April more […]
Jordan: Endgame for the Brotherhood?

Date first published: 01/05/2025 Key sectors: defence, politics Key risks: political stability; political violence Risk development On 15 April Jordanian authorities arrested 16 individuals and on 1 May sentenced four to 20 years, due to their alleged links to a Muslim Brotherhood plot to attack multiple targets using drones and rockets. Intelligence officials claimed the […]
Brazil: Irreconciliation of agrobusiness and indigenous land claims

Date first published: 24/04/2025 Key sectors: agriculture; mining; forestry Key risks: civil unrest; supply chain disruption; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development Between 26 March and 8 April indigenous protests in the Amazon rainforest, Para state, led to a disruption of soybean shipments via the Miritituba river port, halting 70,000 tonnes of grain per day […]
Iraq: Blurring lines of authority

Date first published: 22/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional war; disarmament Risk development On 7 April reports emerged that several Iran-backed Shi’ah militias were considering disarmament following United States (US) warnings to the Iraqi government that failure to dismantle could lead to targeted airstrikes. Militias reportedly received tacit approval from Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]
Brazil-Paraguay: Itaipu spying scandal strains relations

Date first published: 15/04/2025 Key sectors: energy; infrastructure Key risks: business risks; economic risks; frustration of process; regulatory changes Risk development On 1 April Paraguay suspended negotiations with Brazil over the Itaipu Dam after it was revealed that Brazil’s intelligence agency (Abin) had spied on Paraguayan officials. The cyber espionage operation, carried out under former president Jair […]
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Battle of institutions

Date first published: 08/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political impasse; separatism; civil war Risk development On 27 March Bosnia and Herzegovina issued an international arrest warrant for Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik and the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS, Nenad Stevandic, after they left the country despite a national […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro on Trial

Date first published: 27/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; political stability; civil unrest; political violence; governability Risk development On 26 March a five-judge Supreme Court panel unanimously ruled that former president Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 election and stage a coup against President Luiz Inacio Lula […]
United States – Yemen: Strikes, Drones and Déjà Vu in the Red Sea

Date first published: 25/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war at sea; regional escalation; targeted attacks; trade disruptions Risk development On 15 March the United States (US) launched extensive air and naval strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen. Over 47 strikes, conducted by fighter jets from the USS Harry Truman and US drones, targeted logistical […]