Piracy on the rise: Southeast Asia’s shipping at risk

Date first published: 22/07/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; targeted attacks; kidnapping; cargo transport Risk development While global incidents of piracy and armed robbery against ships (ARAS) have generally declined in recent years, Southeast Asia has seen a marked resurgence since the beginning of 2025. The Straits of Malacca […]
Thailand: Three Shinawatra governments, three coup d’etats?

Date first published: 03/07/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: government instability; political instability; coup d’etat Risk development On 1 July Bangkok’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from all duties pending an ethics violation case. The case covers the contents of her phone call with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, intended to de-escalate tensions after the […]
Kenya: From the frying pan into the fire

Date first published: 01/07/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political stability Risk development On 25 June at least 12 people were killed and 400 others injured in youth-led, nationwide protests across Kenya, marking the one-year anniversary of demonstrations opposing the controversial 2024 Finance Bill. Protesters took to the streets of urban centres […]
Israel-Iran: Peace through Strength

Date first published: 24/06/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional tensions; regional escalation; geopolitical tensions Risk development On 13 June Israel struck Tehran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites and military command centres in Tehran. The attack prompted an immediate Iranian response with ‘Operation True Promise III’. Rejecting US President Donald Trump’s calls for “unconditional surrender”, on […]
DRC-Rwanda: Now or never

Date first published: 17/06/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: diplomatic; economic; war-on-land Risk development On 15 June Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs Olivier Nduhungirehe stated that the initial mid-June deadline for a peace deal between Kigali and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was indicative and that negotiations are still ongoing. This followed comments on […]
Guinea: Put up or pack up

Date first published: 10/06/2025 Key sectors: mining Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; frustration of process Risk development On 29 May the government cancelled 129 mineral exploration permits, primarily focused on the gold, diamond and bauxite mining sectors. The stated reason was to facilitate a switch to a digitised system to reportedly optimise the licensing […]
EU–Iran–UK: Tehran’s criminal proxies

Date first published: 29/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political violence; gang violence; targeted attacks Risk development On 4 May eight people – including seven Iranian nationals – were arrested in the United Kingdom (UK) during major counter-terrorism operations on suspicion of plotting “terrorist” acts and posing a threat to national security. On 17 May […]
Peru: Mining sector in the crosshairs

Date first published: 22/05/2025 Key sectors: mining; cargo transport Key risks: targeted attacks; civil unrest; kidnapping; business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 5 May President Dina Boluarte suspended all mining activity in Pataz province, La Libertad region, for 30 days after the bodies of 13 gold mine workers from local firm R&R […]
Maldives: A different type of resort

Date first published: 15/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; economic risks; corruption Risk development On 5 May Male, in partnership with the United Arab Emirates-based MBS Global Investments, announced the development of Maldives International Financial Centre (MIFC) – a US$8.8bln project, aimed at establishing a fully sustainable Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Male, to attract […]
Nigeria: Bandits to the left, insurgents to the right

Date first published: 08/05/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; communal violence; banditry Risk development Between 4 and 20 April multiple-casualty attacks occurred in the country’s North-East, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones. Over 110 people were killed in two attacks by Fulani militias in Plateau state on 4 and 14 April. On 19 April more […]
Jordan: Endgame for the Brotherhood?

Date first published: 01/05/2025 Key sectors: defence, politics Key risks: political stability; political violence Risk development On 15 April Jordanian authorities arrested 16 individuals and on 1 May sentenced four to 20 years, due to their alleged links to a Muslim Brotherhood plot to attack multiple targets using drones and rockets. Intelligence officials claimed the […]
Brazil: Irreconciliation of agrobusiness and indigenous land claims

Date first published: 24/04/2025 Key sectors: agriculture; mining; forestry Key risks: civil unrest; supply chain disruption; business disruptions; trade disruptions Risk development Between 26 March and 8 April indigenous protests in the Amazon rainforest, Para state, led to a disruption of soybean shipments via the Miritituba river port, halting 70,000 tonnes of grain per day […]