Date first published: 22/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional war; disarmament Risk development On 7 April reports emerged that several Iran-backed Shi’ah militias were considering disarmament following United States (US) warnings to the Iraqi government that failure to dismantle could lead to targeted airstrikes. Militias reportedly received tacit approval from Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]
Date first published: 15/04/2025 Key sectors: energy; infrastructure Key risks: business risks; economic risks; frustration of process; regulatory changes Risk development On 1 April Paraguay suspended negotiations with Brazil over the Itaipu Dam after it was revealed that Brazil’s intelligence agency (Abin) had spied on Paraguayan officials. The cyber espionage operation, carried out under former president Jair […]
Date first published: 08/04/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; political impasse; separatism; civil war Risk development On 27 March Bosnia and Herzegovina issued an international arrest warrant for Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik and the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS, Nenad Stevandic, after they left the country despite a national […]
Date first published: 27/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political polarisation; political stability; civil unrest; political violence; governability Risk development On 26 March a five-judge Supreme Court panel unanimously ruled that former president Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 election and stage a coup against President Luiz Inacio Lula […]
Date first published: 25/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war at sea; regional escalation; targeted attacks; trade disruptions Risk development On 15 March the United States (US) launched extensive air and naval strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen. Over 47 strikes, conducted by fighter jets from the USS Harry Truman and US drones, targeted logistical […]
Date first published: 18/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, political violence, communal violence, targeted attacks, corruption Risk development On 11 March former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Ninoy Aquino International Airport on an ICC warrant for crimes against humanity of murder, torture and rape, committed during his intermittent tenure as mayor of Davao […]
Date first published: 11/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governance; regional escalation Risk development On 27 February Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called for the group’s disarmament and dissolution, urging its leadership to convene a congress to finalise the decision. The PKK responded with an immediate ceasefire […]
Date first published: 04/03/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 28 February a meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House ended in a disastrous public spat as the two leaders argued over Trump’s push for peace talks to end the war in […]
Date first published: 20/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: arbitrary arrests; partisan attacks; political polarisation Risk development As of 20 February, an estimated 5,500 people have been arrested as part of the government’s Operation Devil Hunt, with over 500 taking place within the past 24 hours. The operation, launched to re-establish order as civil unrest […]
Date first published: 18/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; political polarisation Risk development On 8 February a new government was formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, following the 10 January election of President Joseph Aoun, filling a two-year leadership vacuum. The new government, pending parliamentary approval, pledges to reform the country’s sectarian […]
Date first published: 12/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 20 January, Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked markets when it released DeepSeek-R1 and a paper detailing that training DeepSeek-V3 required less than US$6m worth of computing power from low-powered Nvidia H800 chips. The emergence of the low-cost […]
Date first published: 04/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: insurgency; war-on-land; regional tensions Risk development On 27 January Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, marking the most serious escalation in the ongoing war since it resumed in 2022. At least 778 people have been killed and 2,880 others […]
