Date first published: 18/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; political polarisation Risk development On 8 February a new government was formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, following the 10 January election of President Joseph Aoun, filling a two-year leadership vacuum. The new government, pending parliamentary approval, pledges to reform the country’s sectarian […]
Date first published: 12/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: business risks; business disruptions; economic risks Risk development On 20 January, Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked markets when it released DeepSeek-R1 and a paper detailing that training DeepSeek-V3 required less than US$6m worth of computing power from low-powered Nvidia H800 chips. The emergence of the low-cost […]
Date first published: 04/02/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: insurgency; war-on-land; regional tensions Risk development On 27 January Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, marking the most serious escalation in the ongoing war since it resumed in 2022. At least 778 people have been killed and 2,880 others […]
Date first published: 23/01/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regional stability Risk development On 19 January a ceasefire agreement came into effect following 15 months of an incessant war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The truce – mediated by the United States (US), Qatar and Egypt – is to be implemented in three […]
Date first published: 09/01/2025 Key sectors: all; tourism Key risks: insecurity; gang-related violence; violent crime; economic risk Risk development On 30 December 2024 Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) amid a surge in gang-related violence. The move followed a series of homicides over the weekend of 28-29 December. On 28 […]
Date first published: 16/01/2025 Key sectors: all; maritime shipping Key risks: geopolitical conflict; supply chain disruption Risk development On 26 December 2024 President Jose Raul Mulino rejected the possibility of reducing tolls for US vessels or ceding control of the Panama Canal after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to take the canal back into US […]
Date first published: 7/1/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; regime change Risk Development On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population […]
Date first published: 31/12/2024 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: geopolitical tensions; defence spending Risk development Donald Trump’s looming return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 has sparked concern across NATO member states. Trump’s first presidency from 2017–2021 was marked by his criticism of NATO as “obsolete,” demands for increased European defence spending, […]
Date first published: 12/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; polarisation; civil unrest; governance risks Risk development On 3 December President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, announcing that the country and its government had been “paralysed by pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. The declaration banned demonstrations and all political activities, including those of the National Assembly […]
Date first published: 10/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regime change Risk development On 8 December opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared the end of President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule after entering Damascus. They imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time while al-Assad left the country, being granted […]
Date first published: 03/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions Risk development On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces […]
Date first published: 26/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; governability risks Risk development On 8 November, at least 15 people were killed by Lakurawa militants in Mera village, Augie Local Government Area (LGA) in Kebbi state. A traditional leader noted that this was the first attack by the group in the area. […]
