Date first published: 7/1/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; regime change Risk Development On 29 December Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohamed al-Julani – declared that organizing elections in Syria could take up to four years as it requires a comprehensive population […]
Date first published: 31/12/2024 Key sectors: all; defence Key risks: geopolitical tensions; defence spending Risk development Donald Trump’s looming return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 has sparked concern across NATO member states. Trump’s first presidency from 2017–2021 was marked by his criticism of NATO as “obsolete,” demands for increased European defence spending, […]
Date first published: 12/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; polarisation; civil unrest; governance risks Risk development On 3 December President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, announcing that the country and its government had been “paralysed by pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. The declaration banned demonstrations and all political activities, including those of the National Assembly […]
Date first published: 10/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land; regime change Risk development On 8 December opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared the end of President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule after entering Damascus. They imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time while al-Assad left the country, being granted […]
Date first published: 03/12/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: ceasefire, regional war, geopolitical tensions Risk development On 26 November a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Tel Aviv was secured following negotiations led by the United States (US) and France. The agreement requires Hizbullah militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel Defense Forces […]
Date first published: 26/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; governability risks Risk development On 8 November, at least 15 people were killed by Lakurawa militants in Mera village, Augie Local Government Area (LGA) in Kebbi state. A traditional leader noted that this was the first attack by the group in the area. […]
Date first published: 19/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; economic stagnation; corruption Risk development Botswana went to the polls on 30 October in what was set up to be a run-of-the-mill election for the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which governed the country since independence in 1966. Instead, the BDP suffered a resounding […]
Date first published: 07/11/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political polarisation Risk development Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump regained the White House with a stunning victory in the 5 November presidential election. At the time of writing, Trump, who was president from early 2017 to early 2021, looks set to win […]
Date first published: 31/10/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; geopolitical tensions; corruption Risk development On 27 October the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party won the 26 October general elections with 54 per cent of support. Election observers reported widespread irregularities, including vote buying, ballot stuffing and intimidation. Four opposition parties passed […]
Date first published: 29/10/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political impasse; governability; policy uncertainty; corruption Risk development On 20 October former defence minister Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated as Indonesia’s eighth president and its first new president in ten years. Subianto took over from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and on 21 October officially swore in one of […]
Date first published: 22/10/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; civil unrest Risk outlook On 20 October Moldovans voted to elect a new president and decide whether the country should enshrine in its constitution the goal of joining the European Union (EU). While President Maia Sandu won the presidential election with approximately 42 per cent […]
Date first published: 16/10/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: energy insecurity; environmental damage; geopolitical interests Risk development On 6 October the Central Election Commission announced that citizens overwhelmingly approved the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant since 1995, with 71 per cent voting in favour. The plant would be built in the village of Ulken […]
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