Iraq: Elections set in Kurdistan

Date first published: 19/09/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability Risk development On 20 October the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is set to have regional elections for the first time since 2018. The elections were delayed by two years and are the first under a new electoral system. To continue reading, become a member of AKE […]
Senegal: Opportunity from chaos

Date first published: 17/09/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political continuity; political instability; civil unrest Risk development On 12 September President Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and scheduled new legislative elections for 17 November. This came amid growing tensions between the ruling African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and […]
Mexico: AMLO’s institutionalisation of democratic backsliding

Date first published: 05/09/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: democratic backsliding; governability Risk development On 4 September the lower house of the newly-elected Congress – sworn in on 1 September – overwhelmingly approved, with 357 votes in favour and 130 against, a controversial judicial overhaul that would introduce elections for all judges. a move supported […]
Thailand: Democracy deferred

Date first published: 29/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest; economic risks Risk development On 16 August Paetongtarn Shinawatra was elected prime minister in a parliamentary vote after she was nominated by the Pheu Thai Party (PTP)-led 11-party coalition. The appointment of the 38-year-old daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra […]
Iran-Iraq: Waiting for the Iranian response

Date first published: 27/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: war; regional escalation Risk development On 31 July Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a suspected Israeli operation in Tehran, while he was attending the inauguration of new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The attack caused a significant escalation of regional tensions. Both Tehran and […]
Bangladesh: On the edge of a precipice

Date first published: 15/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political violence; communal violence Risk development On 8 August Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Grameen Bank founder Muhammad Yunus was sworn in to lead an interim government as chief adviser following the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in a violent […]
Nigeria: Government calls for dialogue left on voicemail

Date first published: 13/08/2024 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; political instability; economic risks Risk development On 1 August protests under the moniker #EndBadGovernment erupted in Abuja, Lagos and other major urban centres throughout the country. Protests were initially scheduled to last from 1 August to 15 August but organisers shifted the end date […]
Serbia: Return of the Jadar project

Date first published: 06/08/2024 Key sectors: all; mining; automobile industry Key risks: civil unrest; frustration of process; business risks; supply chain disruption Risk development On 29 July thousands of people protested against Anglo-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto’s planned lithium mine in Jadar Valley in the towns of Sabac, Kraljevo, Arandjelovac and Ljig. This came after […]
Poland: Change on the horizon?

Date first published: 17/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won the 15 October general election, securing 35.4 per cent of the votes, celebrations were rather modest. Opposition coalitions – including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New […]
Mali: The resumption of the Tuareg rebellion

Date first published: 05/10/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; terrorism Risk development Since late August clashes have intensified between the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) – a coalition of ethnic Tuareg rebels – and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) as the warring factions fight to control territory and military bases which are […]
Canada-India: A broken relationship

Date first published: 28/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest; trade disruptions Risk development On 18 September Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an extraordinary claim of ‘credible allegations’ of Indian state involvement in the June killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. While Trudeau did not substantiate […]
Maldives: Trouble in the neighbourhood

Date first published: 19/09/2023 Key sectors: all Key risks: political instability; policy continuity; political violence; economic risks Risk development On 9 September President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih unexpectedly came in second to his main challenger, Malé Mayor Mohamed Muizzu from the opposition coalition led by the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) – with 39 per […]