Ones to Watch
Americas: Crackdown on Nicaraguan opposition to further intensify ahead of November vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; arbitrary detentions; crackdown on political opposition; civil unrest In Nicaragua, an ongoing government-led crackdown on the opposition is set to continue to intensify ahead of the 7 November general elections. On 5 June opposition presidential hopeful Arturo […]
Americas: Highly contested presidential runoff in Peru; crucial midterm elections in Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; economic risks; policy continuity; election-related violence Peru’s highly contested presidential runoff and Mexico’s crucial midterm legislative and local elections are scheduled to take place on 6 June. Recent polls indicate that Peru’s far-left presidential candidate Pedro Castillo – […]
Americas: Conservative Guillermo Lasso takes office in Ecuador Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; economic risks; policy continuity; civil In Ecuador, conservative Guillermo Lasso of the centre-right CREO party is scheduled to take office as the country’s president on 24 May after securing a surprise win in April’s presidential runoff against leftist candidate Andres Arauz. Lasso, […]
Americas: Venezuela’s Maduro and Guaido mull fresh talks; meaningful results to remain elusive Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, efforts to re-launch negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition will continue to face significant challenges. On 11 May opposition leader Juan Guaido – recognised by the US and […]
Americas: Chile to hold delayed Constituent Assembly and municipal elections on 15-16 May Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; protests; political violence; policy uncertainty In Chile, long-awaited Constituent Assembly (CA) and municipal elections are scheduled to take place on 16-17 May. Both votes, originally scheduled for early April, were postponed due to a surge in […]
Americas: Violent unrest set to continue in Colombia despite tax reform withdrawal Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; protests; political violence; economic risks In Colombia, violent unrest is expected over the coming days as demonstrations over a now-scrapped tax reform have transformed into widespread anger over inequality, poverty and police brutality. At least 19 people […]
Americas: Fresh early pension withdrawals over COVID-19 stoke political tensions in Chile Sectors: all Key Risks: economic risks; political instability; protests In Chile, controversy over private pension savings is expected to continue over the coming days after both houses of Congress on 23 April approved a third 10 per cent early withdrawal of such savings […]
Americas: Controlled transition expected as Raul Castro resigns from Cuba’s PCC leadership Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; crackdown on dissent; economic risks In Cuba, on 16 April Raul Castro confirmed his expected resignation from the presidency of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) during the party’s four-day congress. The Castro brothers – first late Fidel […]
Americas: Peru’s highly uncertain presidential election leads to 6 June runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; business risks In Peru, a presidential runoff will take place on 6 June as none of the 18 presidential candidates managed to reach the 50 per cent threshold to win outright in the 11 April general […]
Americas: Ecuador and Peru to hold presidential vote; region tightens COVID-19 restrictions Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; COVID-19 lockdowns; business disruption In Ecuador and Peru, presidential elections are scheduled to take place on 11 April even as several countries in the region – including Ecuador – recently moved to tighten COVID-19-related restrictions amid a […]
Americas: Controversial military operations lead to violence, attacks in Venezuela’s Apure state Sectors: all Key Risks: violent clashes; forced displacement; targeted attacks In Venezuela, clashes between the military and Colombian armed criminal groups, which several reports have identified as dissident former FARC rebels, have continued over the past week across Urdaneta in Paez municipality, Apure […]
Americas: Mexico tightens security in Guatemalan border over migrants, COVID-19 Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; border disruption; violent clashes In Mexico, tensions risk increasing along the southern border with Guatemala as the government tightened security and declared a one-month ban to non-essential travel amid efforts to deter illegal immigration and prevent the spread of […]
