Ones to Watch
Americas: Brazil’s capital enters two-week lockdown, President Bolsonaro threatens aid cuts Sectors: all Key Risks: business and economic risks In Brazil, on 27 February the capital Brasilia entered a lockdown for all but essential services until 15 March to reduce the spread of COVID-19 currently overwhelming hospitals to a near breaking point. Brasilia Governor Ibaneis […]
Americas: President Bukele to consolidate power in 28 February legislative, municipal elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; unrest; election-related violence In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele’s centre-right New Ideas party is expected to secure a major win in the 28 February legislative and municipal elections which are highly likely to consolidate Bukele’s political control […]
Americas: Unrest and instability intensify amid constitutional crisis in Haiti Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; SRCC; arson attacks; looting In Haiti, further violent unrest is expected as the constitutional crisis triggered by discrepancies over the length of President Jovenel Moise’s term continues to intensify. On 14 February protesters clashed with police in Port-au-Prince as […]
Americas: Ecuador’s elections lead to presidential runoff; shift to the left expected Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; business risks; regulatory changes In Ecuador, the 7 February general elections led to a presidential runoff vote scheduled for 11 April between Andres Arauz, former culture minister under leftist former president Rafael Correa, and either […]
Americas: Truckers to begin indefinite strike in Brazil, fears of 2018 repeat loom Sectors: all, road cargo transport Key Risks: strikes; business disruption; overland travel disruption In Brazil, independent truckers are set to begin an indefinite strike on 1 February raising fears of a repeat of the 11-day May 2018 stoppage which paralysed the economy. […]
Americas: Ecopetrol reports first major attack on Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline in 2021 Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: terrorism; targeted attacks against oil infrastructure In Colombia, state-owned oil firm Ecopetrol’s Cano Limon-Covenas (CLC) pipeline was hit by the most relevant attack so far reported in 2021. On 22 January Ecopetrol’s transport and logistics subsidiary Cenit […]
Americas: US President-elect Biden to take office on 20 January amid heightened security risks Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; violent unrest In the US, the risk of unrest and associated violence will remain heightened ahead of and after the 20 January inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. Security force presence has been significantly increased across […]
Americas: Efforts to remove President Trump from office to intensify in the US Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; violent unrest The US House of Representatives is set to try to remove President Donald Trump from office on two separate fronts for inciting a mob that violently attacked the Capitol on 6 January. On 10 […]
Americas: Venezuela’s Maduro to further consolidate power as new legislative period begins Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; violent unrest; protests; economic risks In Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro’s regime will further consolidate its power once the 2021-2026 legislative period begins on 5 January, while the opposition, led by partially recognised interim president Juan Guaido, appears set […]
Americas: Efforts to end three week-long strike affecting grain exports to intensify Sectors: agribusiness Key Risks: labour strike; industrial action; export delays and disruption In Argentina, efforts to end a three week-long strike staged by unions representing grains inspectors and oilseed workers are set to intensify over the coming days as CIARA-CEC, the chamber of […]
Americas: President Ortega pushing for law that would ban opposition from 2021 elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; policy uncertainty In Nicaragua, further government-backed controversial legislative proposals aimed at hampering the opposition’s participation in the 7 November 2021 general election are expected over the coming months. Opposition representatives recently denounced that President […]
Americas: Vitol facing corruption-related fallout in Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil amid US probe Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: frustration of process, contract reviews; business risks; fines In Latin America, Swiss-based commodities trading firm Vitol is facing mounting corruption-related fallout amid a US investigation into bribery schemes in Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico. On 3 December Vitol […]
