Ones to Watch
Americas: Electoral uncertainty to increase following Lula’s arrest Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, unprecedented levels of uncertainty over who will win the presidency on 7 October will increase following the arrest of former president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 7 April. Lula had until 5PM on […]
Americas: Last oil and gas auctions before October’s elections Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, 70 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks will be auctioned on 29 March while the fourth subsalt round is scheduled for 7 June. These might be the last opportunities for major oil companies […]
Americas: Peru’s President Kuczynski to face second impeachment vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability In Peru, centre-right President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will face an impeachment vote on 22 March triggered by allegedly lying about his links to Brazil’s scandal-ridden engineering conglomerate Odebrecht. Kuczynski narrowly survived a first impeachment vote in December […]
Americas: Venezuelan opposition to resume anti-government protests Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; security-force repression; political violence In Venezuela, the opposition has called for nationwide anti-government demonstrations to take place on 17 March to protest against President Nicolas Maduro and the upcoming snap 20 May presidential election. This is the first time that the opposition […]
Americas: Targeted violence continues to affect Colombia’s electoral cycle Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; political polarisation In Colombia, targeted political violence is expected to continue to affect the electoral race towards the 11 March legislative elections and the 27 May presidential election. On 2 March leftist presidential candidate Gustavo Petro’s convoy was attacked […]
Americas: Macri to inaugurate Congress’ session; union-led unrest likely Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led unrest; delays to reform agenda; policy continuity In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri is set to inaugurate the 136th ordinary session of Congress on 1 March with a speech that will come a little over a week after a massive demonstration led […]
Americas: Brazil’s Congress to discuss government-backed pension reform Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; delays to fiscal reform agenda In Brazil, Congress is scheduled to vote on President Michel Temer’s pension reform, a long-awaited fiscal austerity measure seen as crucial to shore up the budget. Discussions are scheduled to begin on 19 February although they […]
Americas: Uncertainty over the future of ELN peace talks to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, uncertainty over the future of the currently suspended peace talks between the government and the ELN guerrillas is likely to persist given a spike in ELN attacks. On 10 February President Juan Manuel Santos reiterated that […]
Americas: US considering sanctioning Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on Maduro Sectors: all, particularly oil and gas Key Risks: sanctions; default; economic collapse US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that the US is considering imposing sanctions on Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on President Nicolas Maduro to ‘return to the constitution’ and stop […]
Americas: Ecuador to held referendum on constitutional reform Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; regulatory changes In Ecuador, a government-backed referendum on seven questions, five of which entail amending the constitution, is scheduled to take place on 4 February. Amongst President Lenin Moreno’s proposals is the elimination of indefinite re-election, a move that […]
Americas: Court to decide on Lula da Silva’s appeal against conviction Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; political instability; corruption fallout In Brazil, on 24 January a court in the southern city of Porto Alegre is scheduled to decide on an appeal from former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against his conviction to nine […]
Americas: Government and ELN to discuss bilateral ceasefire extension Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the government and the ELN guerrillas have recently stated in separate announcements that they stand ready to potentially renew the bilateral ceasefire agreement in place since 1 October 2017 which comes to an end on 9 January. On […]
