Ones to Watch
Americas: Mexico set to elect leftist president amid record-high violence Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; targeted political violence; contract alteration In Mexico, general elections are scheduled to take place on 1 July. Leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the MORENA party has consistently been the frontrunner in the polls and is expected […]
Americas: Dialogue to ease tensions to remain at risk in Nicaragua Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the government and opposition representatives resumed a Catholic Church-mediated dialogue on 15 June to try to end a crisis in which at least 178 people have been killed since 18 April. Despite […]
Americas: Right-wing Duque increasingly likely to win Colombia’s 17 June presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, a presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 17 June. Right-wing Democratic Centre (DC) party candidate Ivan Duque leads in the last poll released before the upcoming vote. According to the poll, […]
Americas: Colombia to hold presidential election on 27 May Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, presidential elections are scheduled to take place on 27 May. According to the last polls to be published before the vote, centre-right Democratic Centre party candidate Ivan Duque remains the frontrunner. According to Invamer, Duque is […]
Americas: Security continues to deteriorate in Ecuador’s northern border Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; targeted attacks; kidnapping; extortion In Ecuador, further security-force operations should be expected in the northern provinces bordering Colombia as the government increases efforts to crackdown and capture members of the Oliver Sinisterra Front, a criminal group made up of former Colombian […]
Americas: Nicaragua to remain at risk of further violent unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the risk of further unrest and associated violence will persist at least over the coming months, despite President Daniel Ortega’s decision on 22 April to cancel controversial social security reforms approved on 16 […]
Americas: Cuba to undergo heavily controlled presidential transition Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Cuba, 19 April will mark the end of the Castro era. The National Assembly’s 605 lawmakers endorsed in the 11 March one-party vote are expected to elect 57-year old First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel as the communist country’s […]
Americas: Electoral uncertainty to increase following Lula’s arrest Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, unprecedented levels of uncertainty over who will win the presidency on 7 October will increase following the arrest of former president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 7 April. Lula had until 5PM on […]
Americas: Last oil and gas auctions before October’s elections Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, 70 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks will be auctioned on 29 March while the fourth subsalt round is scheduled for 7 June. These might be the last opportunities for major oil companies […]
Americas: Peru’s President Kuczynski to face second impeachment vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability In Peru, centre-right President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will face an impeachment vote on 22 March triggered by allegedly lying about his links to Brazil’s scandal-ridden engineering conglomerate Odebrecht. Kuczynski narrowly survived a first impeachment vote in December […]
Americas: Venezuelan opposition to resume anti-government protests Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; security-force repression; political violence In Venezuela, the opposition has called for nationwide anti-government demonstrations to take place on 17 March to protest against President Nicolas Maduro and the upcoming snap 20 May presidential election. This is the first time that the opposition […]
Americas: Targeted violence continues to affect Colombia’s electoral cycle Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; political polarisation In Colombia, targeted political violence is expected to continue to affect the electoral race towards the 11 March legislative elections and the 27 May presidential election. On 2 March leftist presidential candidate Gustavo Petro’s convoy was attacked […]
To download this report, please enter your details below.