Ones to Watch
Americas: Former president Fernandez de Kirchner to run for Senate seat Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Argentina, former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner formally launched her bid for a Senate seat in the upcoming 22 October mid-term legislative elections. Her decision to create a new political party, Citizen Unity, that will […]
Americas: US partially rolls back policy changes towards Cuba Sectors: all Key Risks: economic; reduced foreign investment A new chapter in Cuba-US bilateral relations is set develop from this week onwards following US President Donald Trump’s decision to partially roll back policy changes towards the island implemented by the Obama administration. On 16 June Trump […]
Americas: Temer survives key threat to his presidency; more to come Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; corruption fallout On 9 June in Brazil, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) voted 4-3 to acquit President Michel Temer and former president Dilma Rousseff of charges of illegally financing their 2014 campaign in a trial that […]
Americas: FARC disarmament could be further delayed; peace process unlikely to be derailed Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; political stability In Colombia, FARC leader Rodrigo Londono stated he was considering postponing the FARC’s disarmament following the arrest of a rebel by government forces. The government stated there was an identity ‘confusion’ over the […]
Americas: embattled President Temer fights for survival Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; corruption fallout In Brazil, President Michel Temer appears determined to fight for his political survival after fresh bribery allegations made public on 17 May put his presidency at the verge of collapse. Since then, several impeachment requests have been filed […]
Americas: disruption expected as teachers protests across Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; commercial damage; disruptive blockades In Mexico, teachers’ unions are expected to demonstrate in the capital Mexico City to protest a series of grievances during Teacher’s Day on 15 May. Government officials announced the deployment of around 2,500 police officers to monitor […]
Americas: anti-government demonstrations to continue in Venezuela; high risk of violence Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political instability; looting In Venezuela, anti-government demonstrations are expected to persist at least over the coming days as the opposition plans to continue to take to the streets to demand early presidential elections, the release of […]
Americas: protests over Ecuadorian election continue while ELN peace talks under threat Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; terrorism; civil unrest On 7 April Ecuadorian police forces raided the headquarters of polling firm Cedatos. Cedatos’ exit poll for the 2 April presidential election, which showed a six-point advantage for losing opposition candidate Guillermo Lasso, has […]
Americas: trial that could lead to Temer’s fall set to begin in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) will begin the trial to define whether the 2014 Rousseff-Temer ticket should be annulled due to illegal electoral financing. The ruling could […]
Americas: Ecuador to face historic presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; social unrest In Ecuador, a historic presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 2 April between ruling party Alianza Pais (AP) candidate Lenin Moreno and opposition centre-right Creando Oportunidades (CREO) candidate Guillermo Lasso. Even though Lasso appeared to […]
Americas: new corruption probes to stoke political instability, governability risks in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, President Michel Temer’s administration will likely face increased political instability and governability risks over the coming weeks and months. On 14 March General Prosecutor Rodrigo Janot requested the Supreme […]
Americas: decisive week for Gas Natural Fenosa – Electricaribe Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led disruptive unrest and strikes The coming week will be crucial for the future of Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa’s (GNF) Colombian subsidiary Electricaribe (ECA), which has been under the control of the Colombian government since mid-November 2016. On 13 March GNF is […]
