Insights
Date first published: 23/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: targeted attacks; political polarisation; terrorism Risk development On 14 December at least 16 people, including one assailant, were killed, and 42 others were injured during a shooting attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney, New South Wales state. Bomb disposal experts stated that three IEDs had also been thrown but failed to detonate. Police stated that the […]
Americas: Transport workers launch strike over fuel price hike in Bolivia Sectors: all; transportKey Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest In Bolivia, on 19 December transport workers launched a strike in response to a 100 per cent fuel price hike ordered by the new government, erecting blockades and shutting down public transportation, bringing La Paz and […]
Date first published: 11/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; institutional weakness; civil unrest; governability; corruption Risk development On 10 December the Standing Committee of Congress announced it would not validate the results of the 30 November presidential election due to “pressures” from internal organised crime structures and interference from US President Donald Trump, […]
Americas: Government declares SoE after at least five killed in string of attacks in Guatemala Sectors: allKey Risks: communal violence; violent clashes; gang violence In Guatemala, on 14 December President Bernardo Arevalo’s government declared a state of emergency (SoE) – limiting open-air meetings and public events – for 15 days in Nahuala and Santa Catarina […]
Date first published: 09/12/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: cargo transport; business risks; trade disruptions; war at sea Risk development On 30 November Tehran and Ankara reached an agreement to build a US$1.6bln, 200 km rail link – referred to in Iran as the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya railway transit line – connecting Iran’s rail network with Turkey’s. […]
Americas: Five killed, 12 injured in VBIED attack in Mexico’s Michoacan state Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; gang violence In Mexico, on 6 December five people were killed – including three police officers – and 12 were injured in a VBIED attack outside a police station in Coahuayana, Michoacan state. This came after the […]
Date first published: 27/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: regional escalation; regional conflict; policy uncertainty; economic risks; business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruption; trade friction Risk development On 26 November, Beijing’s spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Peng Qingen, issued a sharp warning declaring that China would “crush any foreign interference” over Taiwan and […]
Americas: Preliminary results show Asfura leading in Honduran presidential elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability In Honduras, on 1 December preliminary results from 55 per cent of polling stations showed the conservative National Party’s Nasry Asfura leading with 40 per cent of the vote, ahead of the centrist Liberal Party’s Salvador Nasralla with 39.78 […]
Date first published: 25/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: war-on-land Risk development On 18 November reports emerged that the United States (US) had drafted a 28-point plan in secret October talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. US officials claimed the proposal – requiring Ukraine to cede parts of Donetsk Oblast it still […]
Americas: US adds Venezuelan cartel to terror list, announces launch of new Venezuela phase Sectors: all Key Risks: regional escalation; regional conflict In Venezuela, on 24 November the US designated the Cartel de los Soles – which it asserts is linked to President Nicolas Maduro – a terrorist organisation. The move came after on 22 […]
Date first published: 18/11/2025 Key sectors: all Key risks: disruptive unrest; political violence; political polarisation Risk development On 17 November former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was tried in absentia, found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death for her role in the violent crackdown on demonstrations on 18 July 2024, which left over […]
Americas: 120 injured in clashes at Gen Z-led protest in Mexico City Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes In Mexico, on 15 November 120 people – including 100 police officers – were injured and 20 were arrested after protesters attacked police with fireworks, stones, sticks and chains at a Gen Z-led […]
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