Zimbabwe: The fall of Mugabe

Date first published: 28/11/2017 Key sectors: agriculture; finance; trade Key risks: coup; political stability The peculiar ‘non-coup’ of 15 November brought Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule to an end and swept ex-vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa into power. The new administration will seek to end Zimbabwe’s international isolation, improve the climate for foreign investment, and stabilise the country’s economy. However,...

Venezuela: Default, now what?

Date first published: 23/11/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: sovereign/sub-sovereign default; sanctions; political instability Venezuela and state-owned oil company PDVSA have officially defaulted on their debts. On 16 November the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) ruled that both were in default following delays on servicing debt, which constituted a ‘credit event’ that will trigger credit-default swaps...

AKE Ones to Watch, 27 November 2017

Americas: Uncertainty to persist amid controversial presidential election in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability; political stability; social unrest In Honduras, the controversial presidential election held on 26 November is likely to keep uncertainty levels high at least over the coming weeks. With 57 per cent of the ballots counted, opposition centre-left...

Saudi Arabia: Crown prince’s power push raises political risks

Date first published: 14/11/2017 Key sectors:SOEs; energy; utilities; industrial; defence Key risks:contract frustration; political instability The arrests began late on 4 November: princes, well-known businessmen, and influential serving and former civilian ministers. By the early hours of 5 November, some of the country’s most prominent men were reportedly under guard at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh....

Ones to Watch, 20 November 2017

Americas: Chile headed to presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability In Chile, centre-right former president Sebastian Pinera (2010–2014) will face centre-left Senator Alejandro Guillier, who is supported by most of ruling centre-left Nueva Mayoria coalition parties, in a 17 December presidential runoff. Pinera is likely to win. The 19 November first...