Americas: Leftist AMLO to take office in Mexico on 1 December Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; currency volatility In Mexico, leftist president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will take office on 1 December amid persistent uncertainty over his future policies. AMLO’s security strategy includes creating a 50,000-strong National Guard as part of […]
Americas: Austerity 2019 budget approved in Argentina; risk of unrest, attacks ahead of G20 Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; terrorism; governability In Argentina, the Senate approved the 2019 austerity budget by 45 to 24 votes on 15 November in a political victory for President Mauricio Macri’s government. The approval came three days after S&P […]
Americas: ELN steps-up attacks in Colombia as prospects for peace talks resumption wane Sectors: oil and gas; electricity; security force/government assets Key Risks: terrorism; targeted attacks; armed clashes; kidnapping In Colombia, the leftist ELN guerrillas reportedly carried out several attacks in the northern Cesar department on 10 November. Five civilians were injured when forced out […]
Americas: US midterm elections on 6 November Sectors: all Key Risks: split government; protests; political inertia; impeachment Voters in the United States take part in nationwide elections on 6 November, during which the entire US House of Representatives is up for re-election, as are 35 of 100 Senate seats, although some could see a runoff […]
ONES TO WATCH Americas: Keiko Fujimori’s preventive detention request hearing continues in Peru Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest In Peru, the hearing to assess the public prosecutor’s 36-month preventive detention request for conservative Popular Force (FP) party leader Keiko Fujimori and ten others continued for the fifth day on 29 October. The […]
Americas: Court rulings affecting mining projects in Chile Sectors: mining Key Risks: frustration of process; contract scrutiny In Chile, court rulings have recently affected several mining-related projects. On 11 October the Constitutional Court suspended a deal allowing China’s Tianqi Lithium to buy a 24 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM after agreeing to hear arguments […]
Americas: Costa Rica’s controversial tax reform moves forward; strike to continue Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; strikes; policy changes In Costa Rica, Congress approved a controversial tax reform on 5 October amid ongoing protests from public sector workers. The government-backed Strengthening Public Finance bill is aimed at addressing a fiscal crisis. The Constitutional Chamber […]
Americas: General elections in Brazil to lead to polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; governability In Brazil, general elections are scheduled to take place on 7 October with no presidential candidate expected to secure the 50 per cent needed to avoid a runoff on 28 October. Far-right frontrunner […]
Americas: Labour unions launch 36-hour strike against Argentina’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: strikes; civil unrest; governability; policy continuity In Argentina, labour unions and social movements plan to launch a 36-hour long strike on 24 September led by the Workers’ Central Union (CTA) which the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), Argentina’s largest labour union, plans […]
Americas: Showdown between Peru’s executive and legislative powers to intensify Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; policy continuity; political instability In Peru, President Martin Vizcarra stepped-up pressure on the opposition-controlled Congress to approve four government-backed anti-corruption bills which require a constitutional reform. On 16 September Vizcarra asked for an extraordinary Congress session to take place on […]
Americas: Brazil’s election campaign to continue to heat up Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; civil unrest In Brazil, the election campaign ahead of the 7 October general election is expected to continue to heat up. The leftist Workers’ Party (PT) has until 11 September to name imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula […]
Americas: Unprecedented peso rout triggers stricter fiscal deficit targets to contain crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; export taxes In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri announced a cabinet reshuffle and stricter fiscal deficit targets for 2019 following an unprecedented rout on the peso that led the central bank to raise its benchmark rate […]
