Americas: Heightened security, flare-ups of gang violence likely in Haiti
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang-related violence; violent crime
In Haiti, on 3 October 70 people were killed and an unidentified number were injured in a shooting attack by Gran Grif gang members who burned homes and vehicles in Pont-Sonde, Artibonite department – forcing 6,270 to flee. The gang – which controls Pont-Sonde – stated the attack was in retaliation for civilian complacency with the killings of its members by police and vigilante groups. The Artibonite police director was replaced following the attack amid allegations of police unresponsiveness. Prime Minister Garry Conille departed to the United Arab Emirates and Kenya on 5 October to seek security assistance. This came after the 30 September extension of the UN-backed multinational security mission’s mandate until 15 October 2025, despite lacklustre results due to insufficient funds and personnel. Flare-ups of violence and heightened security are likely in Artibonite as gangs seek to expand territorial control.
Click here to access Haiti’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Taiwanese officials expect military drills from China to follow presidential speech
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional conflict; regional escalation; war-at-sea;
In Taiwan, on 10 October national security officials expect Chinese military drills near the self-governing island following President Lai Ching-te’s upcoming National Day speech. The assessment fits a pattern of military drills from China taking place during or shortly after moments of significance in Taiwanese politics, such as Lai’s inauguration in May. These drills included flights of heavily armed warplanes and the staging of mock attacks in response to what China perceived as “separatist acts”. Taiwanese intelligence sources claim that regardless of the speech’s content, Beijing will likely use alleged “provocations” from Lai as justification for conducting more of these military exercises. However, a Taipei-based diplomatic source stated the upcoming US election may restrain them. To continue placing pressure on Taiwan, Chinese military drills will therefore likely take place on, as well as after, 10 October.
Click here to access Taiwan’s and here to access China’s Global Intake country profiles.
Eurasia: Ukrainian and Slovak PMs to meet amid oil supply dispute
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: trade disputes; energy shortages
In Ukraine, on 7 October Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico will meet his Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal for talks reportedly linked to a recent dispute between the two sides over oil supplies. Ahead of the meeting, Fico called for “friendly gestures” from Ukraine. This came after 22 July Bratislava and Budapest asked Brussels to mediate a consultation with Kyiv, alleging that Russian oil supplies were halted after Kyiv placed Moscow’s Lukoil on its sanctions list in June. The supplies account for up to 50 per cent of oil exported through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia via Ukraine. On 29 July Fico warned that Bratislava would halt diesel supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv failed to restore the transit of Russian oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary “in a short time”. A widening dispute cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Ukraine’s and here to access Slovakia’s Global Intake profiles.
Europe: China poised to retaliate after EU sanctions Chinese EVs
Sectors: all; automotive; agriculture
Key Risks: trade war; geopolitical tensions
In the European Union (EU), on 4 October Brussels agreed to impose tariffs of up to 35 per cent on imports of electric vehicles (EVs) from China – in addition to an existing 10 per cent tariff – for up to five years. France and Italy voted in favour, among others, while Germany and Hungary strongly opposed the move. The move followed a year-long probe by Brussels into the EV market, which found that Beijing provided subsidies to its EV manufacturers, including through loans from its banks. Chinese companies are aggressively expanding into European markets, making it difficult for domestic producers to sell cheaper EVs. Beijing threatened to impose tariffs on EU brandy imports and began probes into pork and dairy products in response to the move. Further retaliatory measures are likely in the coming weeks amid an escalating EU-China trade conflict.
Click here to access Germany’s and here to access China’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Iran’s strikes on Israel cause damage to airbases in retaliation for ally assassinations
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war-on-land; oil market disruptions
In Israel, on 1 October one Palestinian was killed and two Israelis were injured by falling debris after Iran launched over 180 missiles, including Fattah hypersonic ballistic missiles, into central and southern Israel. While many were intercepted by Israeli and US air defences, reports indicate damage at Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases, and near Israeli intelligence agency Mossad’s headquarters in Tel Aviv. Iranian sources claimed additional hits on Hatzerim airbase and Ashkelon gas facilities. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) acknowledged that some bases were hit but said air force operations were unaffected. Tehran stated the attack was in retaliation for the assassinations of Hamas and Hizbullah leaders, threatening a more intense attack should Tel Aviv respond. IDF airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities appear likely, while President Joe Biden ruled out support for strikes on nuclear sites.
Click here to access Israel’s and here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: No surprises expected ahead of 9 October general elections in Mozambique
Sectors: all
Key risks: political continuity; civil unrest; security risks
In Mozambique, on 9 October the country will hold legislative and presidential elections. The ruling Mozambican Liberation Front (FRELIMO)’s Daniel Chapo and the main opposition Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO)’s Ossufo Momade are the main presidential candidates. Although Chapo remains the favourite, FRELIMO has come under heavy criticism due to its poor track record of governance. Persisting insecurity in Cabo Delgado province, delays in the Mozambique LNG project and high cost of living are key issues heading into the election. RENAMO and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) are likely to capitalise on growing public frustration with FRELIMO’s rule, which has governed the country since its 1975 independence. Despite growing frustration, FRELIMO’s Chapo will likely win the election but lose seats in the legislature due to a perceived poor governance record.
Click here to access Mozambique’s Global Intake profile.
