Americas: Indigenous protests against maximum security prison likely to continue in Ecuador
Sectors: all; cargo; mining
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; traffic disruption
In Ecuador, on 16 December President Daniel Noboa’s government announced a suspension of the construction of a maximum-security prison in Archidona, Napo province. The announcement came in response to protests by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of the Ecuadorian Amazon (CONFENIAE) since 4 December amid concerns over the mega-prison – meant to house the most dangerous leaders of the country’s criminal organisations – potentially exacerbating local security issues. Prison security is a pillar of Noboa’s “internal armed conflict” against criminal gangs. Despite government concessions, the risk of continued protests will remain heightened amid CONFENIAE’s demands for the project’s permanent cancellation and the resignation of Napo’s governor. Given the government’s increased military deployment to Napo, the risks of protests turning violent will be heightened while the cargo transport and mining sectors are at the highest risk of being affected by related traffic disruption.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Investigators request arrest warrant for former South Korean president
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political polarisation; political uncertainty; governability
In South Korea, on 30 December investigators from the country’s Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) formally requested an arrest warrant for former president Yoon Suk-yeol for failing to appear for questioning by police multiple times. Yoon is undergoing investigation for insurrection charges following his 3 December declaration of martial law – which was not upheld by the National Assembly – and subsequent impeachment on 14 December. Yoon Suk-yeol’s successor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, has also been impeached following his refusal to authorise the CIO’s investigations, leading to the country’s third de facto head of state within one month. Political instability risks within the country will remain elevated as the Constitutional Court has five months remaining to issue a verdict on Yoon Suk-yeol’s possible removal from office, after which time a general election must be held within two months.
Click here to access South Korea’s Global Intake profile.
Eurasia: 38 killed in Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan, likely downed by Russia
Sectors: aviation
Key Risks: aviation accidents
In Kazakhstan, on 25 December 38 people were killed when an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer commercial aircraft crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan. The plane was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Russia’s Chechnya. It remained unclear why the aircraft was diverted east across the Caspian Sea, although Russian authorities claimed it was not allowed to land in Grozny due to fog. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev subsequently stated that the plane had been shot down by Russian air defence systems as it approached Grozny, with preliminary findings suggesting the plane was mistakenly intercepted by air defence amid a Ukrainian drone attack on nearby areas. On 28 December Russian President Vladimir Putin issued what appeared to be an apology for the incident, although he did not acknowledge the plane was struck down by Moscow. An investigation remains ongoing. The incident highlighted the risks to the aviation industry of operating near active warzones.
Click here to access Azerbaijan’s and here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Finland seizes Russian tanker suspected of damaging energy link with Estonia
Sectors: all; telecoms; energy
Key Risks: sabotage attacks; energy disruptions; telecoms disruptions
In Finland, on 26 December authorities detained the Cook Islands-registered tanker Eagle S on suspicion of involvement in the 25 December severing of the Estlink-2 energy interconnector cable between Finland and Estonia. Helsinki stated it could not yet definitively link the tanker to Russia but suspects it is part of Moscow’s ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers evading Western sanctions. Three data cables were damaged in the incident as well. This came after on 17-18 November two telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea connecting Finland to Germany and Sweden to Lithuania were damaged. On 19 December China authorised Swedish authorities to board the Chinese Yi Peng 3 bulk carrier, which investigators suspect of being involved in the latter damage. Moscow’s involvement in both incidents cannot be ruled out amid rising Russian sabotage attacks in Europe.
Click here to access Finland’s and here to access Estonia’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Israel Defense Forces intercept Huthi missile from Yemen after striking Sana’a
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war-on-land
In Israel, on 28 December Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted a Huthi missile before it entered Israeli territory, following airstrikes on Sana’a, Yemen the previous day. IDF targeted the airport, a civilian location frequented by UN staff. World Health Organisation (WHO) Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, alongside 18 other UN personnel, were among those attacked in the strike, with one worker suffering serious injuries. The Huthis initially blamed the US and UK for the airstrikes, though it was later revealed to have been an IDF attack. Additionally, on 26 December at least six people were killed and 40 were injured in IDF airstrikes on the Sana’a International Airport and other critical infrastructure. The group escalated attacks after Tel Aviv and Hizbullah signed a ceasefire on 27 November. Huthi retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure are likely.
Click here to access Israel’s and here to access Yemen’s Global Intake profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: UN approves new African Union mission in Somalia
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; insurgency; internal conflict
In Somalia, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) mandate is set to end on 31 December and will be replaced by the leaner African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), authorised by the United Nations (UN). Key funders of African Union (AU) forces in Somalia sought to reduce the mission size – from 15,660 to 12,626 – after concerns about the sustainability of financing it, with the US abstaining from the UN Security Council vote for that reason. Negotiations were complicated by Somalia’s demand for a smaller mission than was approved. Doubts were also cast around the involvement of experienced Ethiopian troops following a diplomatic row between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu over an Ethiopian sea access deal brokered with separatist Somaliland. AUSSOM’s introduction is unlikely to foil the risks of ceding control in southern parts of the country to Islamist militant group al Shabaab.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile.
