Americas: Protests against pension reform likely to intensify in Panama in coming weeks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business disruptions; vandalism
In Panama, on 12 February a protest against the proposed pension reform bill by the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) led to violent confrontations with the riot police in the capital Panama City. Protesters threw rocks, resulting in 15 police officers being injured and 450 people arrested. The bill – proposed by President Jose Raul Mulino’s government on 6 November 2024 – seeks to increase the retirement age by three years, increase employers’ contributions by 3 per cent, mandate an annual state contribution of US$1.2bln and eliminate the mixed pension system to form a single fund. The government warns the Social Security Fund is at risk of bankruptcy without the proposed reforms, which SUNTRACS alleges will lead to its privatisation, pledging continued protests. As the legislative debate progresses, protests are expected to intensify with a higher likelihood of vandalism against public property.
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Asia Pacific: Heightened tensions with China over Taiwan likely amid hint of support by US
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; regional escalation; regional conflict
In China, on 17 February authorities called on Washington to “correct its mistakes” after on 13 February the US State Department removed previous wording on its website about not supporting Taiwan’s independence. According to the State Department, this was a routine update. The website’s fact sheet on the self-governed island also included a reference to Taipei’s cooperation with a Pentagon technology and semiconductor project as well as support for Taiwan in international organisations “where applicable”. Chinese Foreign Prime Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated the revisions of the fact sheet “sends a seriously wrong message to Taiwan independence separatist forces” and called it another example of Washington’s flawed policy of “using Taiwan to suppress China”. Further tensions with China are expected as the US hints at support of Taiwan.
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Eurasia: US and Russian officials to meet in Saudi Arabia for talks on ending war in Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 18 February the United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov and sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev in Saudi Arabia to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine. The talks aim to pave the way for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian and European officials were not invited to the talks, but Washington requested European leaders to propose troop numbers they are willing to deploy in Ukraine after the war’s end. On 12 February Washington appeared to rule out NATO membership for Kyiv or sending US troops to Ukraine and stated that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was unrealistic. Washington’s unilateral approach and apparent concessions to Moscow have fueled tensions with Kyiv and Brussels.
Click here to access Ukraine’s and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Tensions rise ahead of Germany’s 23 February general election and surging far-right
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Germany, on 23 February citizens will vote in the snap general election, which will come after on 6 November 2024 the Social Democrats (SPD)-led coalition government collapsed due to political infighting. The vote is dominated by concerns over asylum seekers, a rise in extremist attacks, economic stagnation and the war in Ukraine. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz is leading the polls at 32 per cent support, pledging to revive the economy and crack down on migration. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – which backs mass deportations, lifting sanctions on Russia and ending military aid for Ukraine – is polling in second place at 21 per cent amid rising support. SPD is polling in third place. However, CDU is highly unlikely to enter coalition talks with AfD to avoid breaking the historical firewall against the far-right.
Click here to access Germany’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Two UNIFIL peacekeepers injured in attack near Beirut International Airport in Lebanon
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; targeted attacks; civil unrest; cargo transport
In Lebanon, on 15 February over 25 people were arrested after pro-Hizbullah protesters attacked a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) convoy near Beirut International Airport on 14 February, injuring at least two peacekeepers, including the outgoing deputy force commander. The attack followed Israel’s claim that Iran was using the airport to smuggle funds to Hizbullah, prompting Lebanese authorities to block two Iranian planes from landing on 13 February. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Internal Security Forces (ISF) closed the airport road following the attack but reopened it later on 14 February. Tensions are set to escalate as Hizbullah pushes back against perceived Israeli and Western interference. Additional airport blockades and violent demonstrations are expected, especially if Lebanese authorities impose flight restrictions beyond the ceasefire deadline. Heightened security measures will increase risks of clashes with protesters and targeted attacks on foreign interests by pro-Hizbullah supporters.
Click here to access Lebanon’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Rwanda-backed M23 captured second-largest city in eastern DRC
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional tensions; external conflict
In the DRC, on 16 February the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) captured the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. M23 rebels made rapid progress, capturing the key towns of Nyabibwe, Kalehe, Kavumu and Bukavu between 5 and 15 February, with few reports of clashes with the military or pro-government militias. The capture of Bukavu effectively put Lake Kivu and the vast majority of the DRC-Rwanda border under M23 control. Regional tensions remain high despite mediation efforts by the East African Community (EAC) and the South African Development Community (SADC). Calls for government negotiations with M23 have been categorically rejected by DRC President Felix Tshisekedi on multiple occasions. M23 will look to capture the remaining towns along the government-controlled border with Rwanda as they continue to set up a parallel government in Goma, North Kivu province.
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