Americas: Ecuadorian government alleges sabotage responsible for oil spill, warns of attacks
Sectors: all; energy sector; water sector
Key Risks: business disruptions; targeted attacks; supply chain disruption
In Ecuador, on 20 March President Daniel Noboa’s government claimed that the 18 March oil spill – initially blamed on a landslide – in Quininde, Esmeraldas province, was an act of sabotage, citing intelligence reports. The rupture in the Transecuadorian Pipeline System (Sote) – owned by state-owned oil company Petroecuador – polluted rivers, left thousands without water and led to an environmental emergency in Esmeraldas province. Energy Minister Ines Manzano warned the Mayor of Quito of further sabotage threats, including potential attacks on three other rivers and the Papallacta Integrated System, which provides Quito’s drinking water. Manzano alluded to the possibility of the attack being an attempt to discredit Noboa’s government ahead of the 23 March start of the run-off election campaign. With the 13 April run-off looming, the risk of further sabotage attacks on oil and water infrastructure, with the potential for operational disruptions, will remain heightened.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces no-confidence vote
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political polarisation; political uncertainty
In Thailand, on 24 March parliament launched debates on the no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Opposition parties are expected to challenge her on the country’s ailing economy and influential nature of her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is alleged to be covertly influencing national policy. However, due to parliamentary rules prohibiting mention of external individuals by name, the opposition is likely to instead focus on sluggish economic performance. Bangkok reported only 2.5 per cent GDP growth in 2024, well below the Southeast Asian regional average of 4.7 per cent. While overall stability in the ruling coalition indicates that Shinawatra is highly likely to survive the vote, which will be held on 26 March, ongoing suspicions over her father’s influence over national affairs is likely to persist, exacerbating medium-term risks to political stability.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US holds separate talks with Ukraine, Russia on partial ceasefire
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land; war-at-sea
On 23 March US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia for talks on a partial 30-day ceasefire for energy and critical infrastructure attacks. This came after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signalled their readiness to accept such a ceasefire in separate calls with US President Donald Trump on 18 and 19 March, respectively. Russian officials claimed Putin ordered the military to halt such strikes and that Moscow had shot down seven of its own drones headed for Ukraine. However, Kyiv and Moscow subsequently accused each other of further such strikes. US and Russian officials began separate talks in Saudi Arabia on 24 March, which will focus on a potential Black Sea maritime ceasefire and would pave the way for talks on freezing front-line fighting. Efforts to reach a partial ceasefire will intensify in the coming days.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Protests in Serbia to continue amid growing risk of violence
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Serbia, anti-government protests triggered by the 1 November 2024 fatal collapse of the canopy at the Novi Sad railway station are set to continue. On 21 March a teenager died in the hospital as a result of the accident, likely sustaining the protests’ momentum. Additionally, although security forces have so far refrained from using force against protesters, there are allegations that they used a sonic weapon during a 15 March protest in Belgrade. Over 500,000 people have signed a petition calling for an investigation into the incident, which President Aleksandar Vucic described as a “wicked lie”. If the authorities fail to address the petition, it is likely to further fuel public frustration with the government, which is also adopting increasingly hostile rhetoric toward the protests. With Vucic dismissing the protesters and organising counter-protests, the risk of violence will remain heightened.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: President Kais Saied dismisses prime minister amid political instability in Tunisia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governance; economic risks
In Tunisia, on 21 March President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Najla Bouden amid ongoing political and economic turmoil. The decision came as the government struggled to address severe economic challenges, including rising inflation, high unemployment and growing public discontent. Critics and opposition figures have raised concerns that Saied’s actions represent a power grab, further deepening political instability. The dismissal is part of a broader trend of frequent leadership changes in the past two years, signalling a lack of consensus and governance challenges. As tensions rise, the likelihood of additional political upheaval increases, with protests and strikes expected in response to worsening living conditions. The government’s ability to stabilise the economy and implement effective reforms remains highly uncertain, and further political fractures are likely to disrupt any meaningful progress in the short to medium term.
Click here to access Tunisia’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Ceasefire hopes in DRC thin as M23 proposes withdrawal from key town
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional tensions; external conflict
In the DRC, on 22 March the Congo River Alliance (AFC) stated that the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) would withdraw from Walikale-central, North Kivu province, to facilitate ceasefire talks with Kinshasa. M23 requested that Walikale-central become demilitarised, with any military presence in the town viewed as a provocation. Although Kinshasa welcomed the initiative, the likelihood of ceasefire talks remains low, with M23 previously taking advantage of calls for ceasefires in August and December 2024 to continue their advances. Following Qatar’s mediation, both Kigali and Kinshasa called for a ceasefire on 22 March and DRC President Felix Tshisekedi agreed to negotiate with M23 after previously labelling the move as a ‘red line’. With growing political pressure from the opposition, Tshisekedi will push for ceasefire talks with M23 as the military proves unable to address M23’s advances.
Click here to access the DRC’s and here to access Rwanda’s Global Intake profile.
