Date first published: 25/03/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: war at sea; regional escalation; targeted attacks; trade disruptions
Risk development
On 15 March the United States (US) launched extensive air and naval strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen. Over 47 strikes, conducted by fighter jets from the USS Harry Truman and US drones, targeted logistical and military installations in at least seven provinces in response to rising Huthi threats to Red Sea shipping. At least 53 people were killed – including senior Huthi operatives – and 98 others injured.
Why it matters
The latest US campaign marked a critical juncture in the power struggle between Washington and Tehran, aiming to undermine Iran’s key regional proxy. High tensions will ultimately provoke retaliatory attacks from the Huthis, who could target US, United Kingdom (UK), Israeli and allied-owned commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. US military bases in Gulf states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, are also at heightened risk.
US strategy has shifted from focusing on air superiority to counter-terrorism tactics, targeting dispersed Huthi networks and aiming to disrupt their military infrastructure, with a specific focus on engineers and their facilities. This move from defensive to offensive operations is part of a broader effort to counter Iranian influence in the region and restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Iran has condemned the attacks, raising the risk of increased militancy from its regional allies, including pro-Iranian militias in Iraq such as Kataib Hizbullah and al-Nujabaa.
Background
Since November 2023 the Huthis have launched over 50 attacks on international vessels, significantly disrupting global shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Huthi strikes followed Israel’s war on Gaza and were framed as revenge for Israeli actions. Nevertheless, US and UK airstrikes targeting Huthi missile and drone systems have had minimal impact, with the group continuing its operations unhindered. Sanctions on Huthi leadership and affiliates have proven ineffective, as they continue to procure supplies illicitly. The Huthis’ military capabilities remain solid, with continued investments in asymmetric warfare.
The Huthis, claiming a divine right to rule based on their Zaidi Shi’ah heritage, have evolved from a local insurgent group into a powerful transnational movement. Their vision extends beyond Yemen, as they aim to take control of Mecca and Medina, positioning themselves as the rightful leaders of the Islamic community. For them, martyrdom is a core ideological pillar, reinforcing their commitment to prolonged conflict. Their retaliatory attacks against Israel have boosted their credibility among some regional factions, despite limited popularity domestically, ensuring they remain emboldened to continue their campaigns. Iran’s setbacks in Syria and Lebanon have made the group Tehran’s most potent regional proxy. They exploit local and regional grievances to expand their influence and operate with impunity in Yemen’s fractured political landscape. Despite their war with Saudi Arabia that ended with a ceasefire in April 2022, the Huthis persisted in their defiance and entrenchment through the control of significant territory in western provinces.
Risk outlook
The likelihood of further escalation is high. US strikes will almost certainly provoke retaliatory attacks on Red Sea shipping, US military assets and regional allies. While airstrikes may degrade some Huthi capabilities, they will also help the group rally domestic support and boost recruitment. The Huthis have struggled thus far to strike US or allied assets accurately, but a single successful attack causing casualties would significantly heighten the risk of a broader regional conflict. A ground invasion remains unlikely due to Yemen’s difficult terrain. The Huthis, aware of this, frequently express their readiness for ground combat, likening it to Iraq and Afghanistan. Operational success would require reclaiming territory through cooperation with the Yemeni government and halting shipping attacks, but military action alone is unlikely to dismantle the Huthi’s power capabilities or prevent further instability.